2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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superrific said:
Harris leads by 17% in PA among the already voted, according to that poll. Taking it as accurate and precise, which is of course foolish, and it's not great news I think. It might be bad news.

1. D registration votes in PA are 26% ahead of R registration votes so far, with 10% Indy. Note that ballots could be in the mail and thus are not included in these tallies. IIRC last cycles Pubs who voted by mail in several states tended to do so late in the early-voting cycle.

But if you just take these numbers at face value, it means that a lot of D registered voters are voting for Trump, or Trump is winning basically the vast majority of I votes. So Dem registrations in PA outnumber R registrations. but only by about 300K -- which means we have enough margin for what has happened but not enough if this trend continues.

2. In 2024, about 25K Republicans switched their registrations to Dem, whereas 70K switched from Dem to Republican. Is that just Haley voters? Maybe. Is it concerning to me? At first it was. Then I looked at more data. Since 2008, about 75% more Dems changed to Pub than the reverse. So this obviously isn't crippling.

3. Back to our polls versus ballots. It turns out that 53% of the mail ballots so far received are from people 65+. In 2020, that demographic made up 27% of the electorate, so the 53% is not a representative sample. Also, in 2020, seniors supported Trump 53% to 47%. As some voters have aged into this group, and those voters would be disproportionately pro-Trump, one would expect that at least 53% of the early voting sample would be a Trump +6 or more group. As it happens, this is almost exactly twice the proportion of voters in this demo from 2020. So Trump is getting a +3 boost at least from that sample selection bias,

which would put the effective early vote breakdown at Kamala +20 or so, which is better than the topline looked. It's still not amazing but we are of course dealing with inaccurate polls combined with incomplete data.

4. I am suspicious of the supposed PA "firewall" and I'm going to make a sleuthing thread about it.

5. I think Kamala is now cruising in MI and I'm pretty happy with WI as well.
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Giving how the Midwest polls performed in 2020, I don't think "cruising" should be used until Nov. 5, 2024 at 9 PM CST, at the earliest.
 
Michigan seems ok, in addition to that you need29 electoral votes
She seems to be running ahead of biden in heavily white midwest states and Wisconsin numbers coming out today look good. That’s 251

Nevada or Arizona and NC or GA
or PA alone gets her there
 
superrific said:
I'm about to start a new thread on the firewall.
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I'm very curious about that firewall as well.

And I know we can't correlate 2020 with 2024 since it was a weird time. Buuut I'm going to anyways

Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration 2020​

Democrats 1,702,484
Republicans 623,404
No Party Affiliation 283,673

So in 2020 the "firewall" was over 1 million + Dems. So why is this 400k number supposed to be so good?
 
Jamison2Carter said:
What do you mean republicans were left off the ballot in judicial races in charlotte?
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I mean they didn't even bother to run anyone. Didn't want to throw away money on a hopeless race. Some BSC MAGA on NC Supreme Court, OK. But not even the craziest MAGA in Mecklenburg County wants to see someone like himself sitting on the bench in a court where they might actually have to appear.
 
lightbluenc said:
I'm very curious about that firewall as well.

And I know we can't correlate 2020 with 2024 since it was a weird time. Buuut I'm going to anyways

Mail Ballots Returned by Party Registration 2020​

Democrats 1,702,484
Republicans 623,404
No Party Affiliation 283,673

So in 2020 the "firewall" was over 1 million + Dems. So why is this 400k number supposed to be so good?
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R’s weren’t voting early in ‘20. They’ve been given permission to do so in ‘24 and are.
 
Quinnipiac PA:

“
Trump receives 47 percent support among likely voters, Harris receives 46 percent support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein receives 2 percent support, and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver receives 1 percent support. Two percent of likely voters refused to respond and 1 percent are undecided. This is the closest this multi-candidate race has been in Pennsylvania.

In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, Harris received 49 percent support, Trump received 46 percent support, and Stein and Oliver each received 1 percent support in a race that was too close to call.

… Men back Trump 57 - 37 percent, while women back Harris 55 - 39 percent. In Quinnipiac University's October 9 poll, men backed Trump 52 - 41 percent, while women backed Harris 55 - 40 percent. …”

poll.qu.edu

Pennsylvania 2024: In Tight Presidential Race, Trump Gets Boost From Men, U.S. Senate Race Tightens, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Reps And Dems Agree: 2024 Presidential Election Is Single Most Important Of Their Lifetimes | Quinni

"The gender gap widens with Trump increasing his lead among men, as what remains a very tight race heads into the final stretch," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
poll.qu.edu poll.qu.edu
 
Turnout gap in NC is now almost white +10. Hoping black people go to the polls next week. Or maybe the black Trumpers are reconsidering their support and deciding to sit this one out.

White +10 is unfortunately a great number for the GOP and it might be why Kamala's folks aren't feeling great about NC. That said, women still have a 3 point edge in turnout, and a 10 point lead over men in terms of ballots cast. So that's good, I think.
 
FWIW, we should be looking for polls reflecting the MSG rally in a day or two. I think we will get a more accurate sense of the race at that point.
 
superrific said:
Turnout gap in NC is now almost white +10. Hoping black people go to the polls next week. Or maybe the black Trumpers are reconsidering their support and deciding to sit this one out.

White +10 is unfortunately a great number for the GOP and it might be why Kamala's folks aren't feeling great about NC. That said, women still have a 3 point edge in turnout, and a 10 point lead over men in terms of ballots cast. So that's good, I think.
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Is any analyst focused on that gap or is it just you? I havent seen anyone in NC focus on it before so didn't know if I always missed it or not.

That said, the Black vote is not nearly as consequential in NC as it is GA
 
aGDevil2k said:
Is any analyst focused on that gap or is it just you? I havent seen anyone in NC focus on it before so didn't know if I always missed it or not.

That said, the Black vote is not nearly as consequential in NC as it is GA
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I don't read too many analysts, so it's just me. But whereas the Black vote isn't as consequential in GA, it's still consequential. Didn't you say that if the turnout gap is less than 6, Kamala wins?
 
just got an update for my voting precinct ...

total registered voters : 1828 voters ( 1137 D and 691 UNA, 0 GQPers )

Early votes : 910 D and 541 UNA ( 79.4% )
 
superrific said:
I don't read too many analysts, so it's just me. But whereas the Black vote isn't as consequential in GA, it's still consequential. Didn't you say that if the turnout gap is less than 6, Kamala wins?
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Not me. Or if I did I was drunk. Because I dont really follow it. IMO if it holds similar to last time it's probably fine...the gender gap is what will be the key
 
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