2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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There were some outlier polls on the AZ senate race yesterday that had Lake tied or winning and Trump with significant lead in AZ, composters wildly disagree on LV metrics there.
 
I don’t know, PA is damn near the whole ball of wax and continues to appear it’s going to trigger numerous 11/5 anxiety episodes, not to mention 85 post election lawsuits.
 
heel17 said:
Am curious how many "ancestral Dems" are still out there in the more rural parts of the state that have voted for Trump 1x or 2x now. Know that is especially prominent in many Southern states
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My BIL is a full on MAGA and hasn’t changed his Dem registration since his first registration in 1980
 
Icky Mettle said:
I really hope things have changed because it appears that in 2020, UAs went for Trump over Biden by a pretty substantial margin. If everyone voted among party lines (which we know wasn’t the case), Trump got approximately 55% of the UA vote, Biden got 42%, and the remaining 3% went third party/write-in. If quite a few Republicans opted to vote for Biden in 2020– and I know that was the case among a fairly substantial number of Republicans in urban areas— then UAs favored Trump even more than that 55%.
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Unless there were many Ds who voted for Trump, which I strongly suspect is the case.
 
HeelingAg said:
I don’t know, PA is damn near the whole ball of wax and continues to appear it’s going to trigger numerous 11/5 anxiety episodes, not to mention 85 post election lawsuits.
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Yeah it certainly looks possible. Technically Harris could lose PA and still win if she got MI, WI, one of NC/GA, plus one of NC/GA/AZ/NV. But that seems like an unlikely confluence of events.
 
WaynetheDrain said:
Can someone explain this “Blue Firewall” theory of early voters in Pennsylvania to me?
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The theory is that if Dems lead by some amount in early voting (I think the number they hypothesize is, like, 400k or 450k?) it should be enough to offset the projected Republican advantage in election-day ballots. Personally I don't think it's a productive way to look at this election, especially because early-voting habits seem to have definitively shifted with more Pubs voting early.
 
rodoheel said:
The theory is that if Dems lead by some amount in early voting (I think the number they hypothesize is, like, 400k or 450k?) it should be enough to offset the projected Republican advantage in election-day ballots. Personally I don't think it's a productive way to look at this election, especially because early-voting habits seem to have definitively shifted with more Pubs voting early.
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PA is different from other states in that there's no in-person early voting, so all early votes are by mail (which republicans have not been pushing). Note that the partisan gap in PA vs other states is wildly different.
 
nycfan said:
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Harris leads by 17% in PA among the already voted, according to that poll. Taking it as accurate and precise, which is of course foolish, and it's not great news I think. It might be bad news.

1. D registration votes in PA are 26% ahead of R registration votes so far, with 10% Indy. Note that ballots could be in the mail and thus are not included in these tallies. IIRC last cycles Pubs who voted by mail in several states tended to do so late in the early-voting cycle.

But if you just take these numbers at face value, it means that a lot of D registered voters are voting for Trump, or Trump is winning basically the vast majority of I votes. So Dem registrations in PA outnumber R registrations. but only by about 300K -- which means we have enough margin for what has happened but not enough if this trend continues.

2. In 2024, about 25K Republicans switched their registrations to Dem, whereas 70K switched from Dem to Republican. Is that just Haley voters? Maybe. Is it concerning to me? At first it was. Then I looked at more data. Since 2008, about 75% more Dems changed to Pub than the reverse. So this obviously isn't crippling.

3. Back to our polls versus ballots. It turns out that 53% of the mail ballots so far received are from people 65+. In 2020, that demographic made up 27% of the electorate, so the 53% is not a representative sample. Also, in 2020, seniors supported Trump 53% to 47%. As some voters have aged into this group, and those voters would be disproportionately pro-Trump, one would expect that at least 53% of the early voting sample would be a Trump +6 or more group. As it happens, this is almost exactly twice the proportion of voters in this demo from 2020. So Trump is getting a +3 boost at least from that sample selection bias,

which would put the effective early vote breakdown at Kamala +20 or so, which is better than the topline looked. It's still not amazing but we are of course dealing with inaccurate polls combined with incomplete data.

4. I am suspicious of the supposed PA "firewall" and I'm going to make a sleuthing thread about it.

5. I think Kamala is now cruising in MI and I'm pretty happy with WI as well.
 
rodoheel said:
The theory is that if Dems lead by some amount in early voting (I think the number they hypothesize is, like, 400k or 450k?) it should be enough to offset the projected Republican advantage in election-day ballots. Personally I don't think it's a productive way to look at this election, especially because early-voting habits seem to have definitively shifted with more Pubs voting early.
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I'm about to start a new thread on the firewall.
 
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