2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
 
lightbluenc said:
I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
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Honestly, we haven’t voted yet. October’s been insanely busy for my house. Between youth sports, lots of family and kids’ bdays, and trunk-or-treats, its been something every single weeknight, it seems.

We’ll go tomorrow after work or on Saturday.

FTR, my wife and I are part of (hopefully) the large NC unaffiliated Kamala/straight-D ticket bloc.
 
lightbluenc said:
I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
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Anecdotally, my wife, a registered Dem, has not voted yet and will vote on Election Day. She hasn't received anything - a text, a call, a visit. We live in an fairly liberal neighborhood in Forsyth County. I'm very surprised. I voted early (last weekend) and did receive a few text messages prior to voting encouraging me to vote, but nothing else.
 
nycfan said:
IMG_3401.jpeg

politicalwire.com

The Latest Swing State Polls

MICHIGAN Harris 49%, Trump 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 47%, Trump 46% (Washington Post)NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47%, Harris 45% (UMass Lowell)PENNSYLVANIA Harris 48%, Trump 47% (UMass Lowell)This post will be updated as needed throughout the day.
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

I’ll be out of pocket for a bit today getting a wisdom tooth removed. See if you can divine the election outcome before I get back.

teeth pain GIF by Christina Lu
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Come down to chapel hill and I'll get it for you, and I'll put the zizzle on the overhead TV so you can keep on moderatin'.
 
lightbluenc said:
I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
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no it's just we always assume dems vote more early (just compared to the GOP) but maybe EDay seems more balanced
 
lightbluenc said:
I've seen people say Republicans have had a more concerted effort to get their voters out early, but have we not heard the same effort from Dems? Are more Dems just wanting to go on Election Day this year, without there being some push to coordinate that?
Click to expand...
🤷
I think I’m most baffled at the moment by the lagging black votes in GA and NC.

Have the lies about trans issues really struck that loud a cord with the underlying conservatism of many black communities? A cord so loud they ignore the nationwide plan for stop and frisk; plan to eliminate discrimination in hiring; to gut social programs like food stamps, school lunches, essentially any perceived “fluff” in public education; the plan to turn Medicaid and Medicare into oligarchic slush funds; how about raising the retirement age and increasing the threshold for overtime; what about the plan for expansion of prisons?

Again, maybe just shifts in voting practices, but it’s alarming.
 
HeelingAg said:
I’m certainly concerned. I’m flabbergasted by the lagging early Democrat turnout. You have a campaign of literal oligarchs and Nazi sympathizers with plans to create economic hardship in order to concentrate the economic fate of the nation in a few hands; an explicit plan to eliminate abortion at the federal level; the overt desire to turn the military against the populous; eliminate no fault divorce; and eliminate student debt relief programs, yet we aren’t seeing forceful turnout to oppose it. Humans are good at projecting terrible possibilities and awful at believing they could happen. I’m baffled Dems wouldn’t have vote the first fucking opportunity.

Also, we could just be seeing profoundly different voting patterns.
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Yeah, I was chomping at the bit to vote. Granted, I didn’t end up voting until about a week after early voting started. I did go by an early voting place on the first day, and the line was super long, so I opted to wait a few days. I also was very busy with work for the first few days, so there wasn’t a convenient time then. But I was hoping that democrats would be super eager to get their vote in.
 
Is the black f
HeelingAg said:
🤷
I think I’m most baffled at the moment by the lagging black votes in GA and NC.

Have the lies about trans issues really struck that loud a cord with the underlying conservatism of many black communities? A cord so loud they ignore the nationwide plan for stop and frisk; plan to eliminate discrimination in hiring; to gut social programs like food stamps, school lunches, essentially any perceived “fluff” in public education; the plan to turn Medicaid and Medicare into oligarchic slush funds; how about raising the retirement age and increasing the threshold for overtime; what about the plan for expansion of prisons?

Again, maybe just shifts in voting practices, but it’s alarming.
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Is the black vote really lagging 2020?
 
I am more positive after seeing what folks are saying/doing. Lots of chatter on the right about integrity and rigged, etc. They have to laying foundation for what they expect.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Is the black f

Is the black vote really lagging 2020?
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“According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, while 1.5 million African Americans have registered to vote nearly 600,000 have voted early.

Data from the 2020 election show about 750,000 black voters turned out to vote early.”

2024 Elections | NC Black voter turnout lower than 2020 election so far with 3 days left of early voting: 'Hopeful' | abc11.com

Many%20are%20raising%20questions%20about%20whether%20Black%20voters%20will%20surpass%20early%20turnout%20numbers%20from%20the%202020%20election%20as%20early%20voting%20draws%20to%20a%20close.
abc11.com abc11.com

There’re also posts in this thread documenting the gap between the black and white vote, and as it stands it appears insurmountable. Presently blacks make up about 18% of the vote. Ttump won the state in 2020 with a 19% black representation. Harris likely needs 20%.
 
HeelingAg said:
“According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, while 1.5 million African Americans have registered to vote nearly 600,000 have voted early.

Data from the 2020 election show about 750,000 black voters turned out to vote early.”

2024 Elections | NC Black voter turnout lower than 2020 election so far with 3 days left of early voting: 'Hopeful' | abc11.com

Many%20are%20raising%20questions%20about%20whether%20Black%20voters%20will%20surpass%20early%20turnout%20numbers%20from%20the%202020%20election%20as%20early%20voting%20draws%20to%20a%20close.
abc11.com abc11.com

There’re also posts in this thread documenting the gap between the black and white vote, and as it stands it appears insurmountable. Presently blacks make up about 18% of the vote. Ttump won the state in 2020 with a 19% black representation. Harris likely needs 20%.
Click to expand...
I guess the question there is whether they are comparing the 2024 early vote numbers thus far to the 2020 early vote totals at the end of early voting. If that’s the case, that’s not bad. Not only are there still a few days left of early voting, but the pandemic likely resulted in higher early voting numbers, and lower Election Day turnout, that won’t be matched this time around. 2016 and 2012 would probably be better comparisons, but I don’t think I’ve seen those.

ETA: I looked at the Politico article after writing this post. I see it says 36,000 more Black voters voted by this point in the 2020 election. Again, that may not be a bad thing considering the way the pandemic likely impacted voting.
 
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Icky Mettle said:
I guess the question there is whether they are comparing the 2024 early vote numbers thus far to the 2020 early vote totals at the end of early voting. If that’s the case, that’s not bad. Not only are there still a few days left of early voting, but the pandemic likely resulted in higher early voting numbers, and lower Election Day turnout, that won’t be matched this time around. 2016 and 2012 would probably be better comparisons, but I don’t think I’ve seen those.

ETA: I looked at the Politico article after writing this post. I see it says 36,000 more Black voters voted by this point in the 2020 election. Again, that may not be a bad thing considering they way the pandemic likely imapcted voting.
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They should get the % 2020 to 2024 for other races and compare, I'm assuming there was much larger early voting %'s in 2020 for Caucasians and other minorities as well.
 
HeelingAg said:
“According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, while 1.5 million African Americans have registered to vote nearly 600,000 have voted early.

Data from the 2020 election show about 750,000 black voters turned out to vote early.”

2024 Elections | NC Black voter turnout lower than 2020 election so far with 3 days left of early voting: 'Hopeful' | abc11.com

Many%20are%20raising%20questions%20about%20whether%20Black%20voters%20will%20surpass%20early%20turnout%20numbers%20from%20the%202020%20election%20as%20early%20voting%20draws%20to%20a%20close.
abc11.com abc11.com

There’re also posts in this thread documenting the gap between the black and white vote, and as it stands it appears insurmountable. Presently blacks make up about 18% of the vote. Ttump won the state in 2020 with a 19% black representation. Harris likely needs 20%.
Click to expand...
This assumes all other things are equal this year in voting demographics. They are not.
 
Duke Mu said:
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I'd love to see that Michigan breakdown by religion/race. I saw a poll recently in which Mich Arabs and Muslims were both favoring Trump - cuz current dem leadership is still continuing gun sales to Israel (obviously ignoring Trump's past and potential actions). I'm kinda worried about Mich if Trump gets a majority from this group, or lowers turnout relative to what Biden got, or they go with Jill Stein. Biden only carried Mich by 2.78%
 
gregh1 said:
I'd love to see that Michigan breakdown by religion/race. I saw a poll recently in which Mich Arabs and Muslims were both favoring Trump - cuz current dem leadership is still continuing gun sales to Israel (obviously ignoring Trump's past and potential actions). I'm kinda worried about Mich if Trump gets a majority from this group, or lowers turnout relative to what Biden got, or they go with Jill Stein. Biden only carried Mich by 2.78%
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If Arab Americans cause Trump to be elected I hope his first action is to re-implement the Muslim ban and tell Bibi to annex all of Gaza. That's what they will deserve for being so stupid.
 
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