2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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I watched Tim Miller's interview on the Bulward with Lakshya Jain, a data and polling expert who described Black voter turnout as the major challenge for the Harris campaign in GA. He noted that Black turnout was actually down from 2016-2020 -- yet Biden won. He said it was down again in 2022. So he believes it's a bad trend for the Dems and one that is likely to be a factor in this election, even though he was not making what he'd call a prediction.

I'm not sure what to think. I'd hope Black voters are excited about Harris. And we hear that she has an amazing organization/GOTV operation. And 2020 was an odd situation, given Covid. I'm hopeful that Black turnout supportive of Harris will be in the range needed.

Unless I missed it, they didn't discuss turnout among women. Seems to me that if the relative turnout by women is even slightly higher that expected, then that might be the biggest factor, in general.
 
ole howard1 said:
I watched Tim Miller's interview on the Bulward with Lakshya Jain, a data and polling expert who described Black voter turnout as the major challenge for the Harris campaign in GA. He noted that Black turnout was actually down from 2016-2020 -- yet Biden won. He said it was down again in 2022. So he believes it's a bad trend for the Dems and one that is likely to be a factor in this election, even though he was not making what he'd call a prediction.

I'm not sure what to think. I'd hope Black voters are excited about Harris. And we hear that she has an amazing organization/GOTV operation. And 2020 was an odd situation, given Covid. I'm hopeful that Black turnout supportive of Harris will be in the range needed.

Unless I missed it, they didn't discuss turnout among women. Seems to me that if the relative turnout by women is even slightly higher that expected, then that might be the biggest factor, in general.
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They are not excited in Georgia. There are no other state races like last time to get the black voters out. And, unlike other swing states, there's not much indication that Republicans are willing to switch in any meaningful way. Plus, polling show her behind.

Therefore, its not worth focusing on Ga. Harris might win it if most other swing states go her way, but in a close election I just don't see it.
 
BlueSmoke said:
They are not excited in Georgia. There are no other state races like last time to get the black voters out. And, unlike other swing states, there's not much indication that Republicans are willing to switch in any meaningful way. Plus, polling show her behind.

Therefore, its not worth focusing on Ga. Harris might win it if most other swing states go her way, but in a close election I just don't see it.
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Crazy considering she's, you know, a black candidate for President.
 
ole howard1 said:
I watched Tim Miller's interview on the Bulward with Lakshya Jain, a data and polling expert who described Black voter turnout as the major challenge for the Harris campaign in GA. He noted that Black turnout was actually down from 2016-2020 -- yet Biden won. He said it was down again in 2022. So he believes it's a bad trend for the Dems and one that is likely to be a factor in this election, even though he was not making what he'd call a prediction.

I'm not sure what to think. I'd hope Black voters are excited about Harris. And we hear that she has an amazing organization/GOTV operation. And 2020 was an odd situation, given Covid. I'm hopeful that Black turnout supportive of Harris will be in the range needed.

Unless I missed it, they didn't discuss turnout among women. Seems to me that if the relative turnout by women is even slightly higher that expected, then that might be the biggest factor, in general.
Click to expand...
I'm dubious of using early voting returns to predict anything this year, especially when compared to 2020, in which covid and Trump's dismissal of early voting badly hurt Republicans in key states. Having said that, I would think a key indicator this year would not be the black or other minority vote, but the women's vote. Given what's happened in so many state elections since Roe was overturned I would think the gender gap this year will largely favor Democrats, so the greater the gender gap in turns of voter turnout the better it will be for Democrats. Even then, though, using polls and early voting to predict the election this year is a doubtful exercise at best.
 
Yeah, I don't think Jain was emphasizing early voting numbers so much -- but trends from 2016-2022. He said he thinks Democrats may turn it around....just that it's a real concern. I'm not sure I think 2020 and 2022 represent too much of serious trend, though I certainly don't know.

I agree about the gender gap.
 
I get wanting to find the "expert" data cruncher to salve the anxiety, I do. Also, Bouzy is throwing shit in hopes that it sticks. If he's wrong he can blame the data, if he's right he can claim a preternatural ability to read the data.

Folks on the left are getting taken for a ride by a crypto bro with numerous accusations against him for scamming people out of their crypto.
 


Rough data for Dems in Nevada to date — Dems have a very slight registration advantage (less than 20,000) but a significant turnout gap so far.

In 2016, Dems had a significant early in person vote turnout advantage, but that flipped to significantly favor the GOP in 2020, especially in the first week of early voting when the GOP had a 133,467 - 90,564 advantage among early voters in the first week (the two sides essentially tied in much lighter turnout the second week). But that was b/c Dems had a huge lead in returned mail
Ballots, 319k to 181k. (Source - https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/9062/637419197840270000 )
 
nycfan said:


Rough data for Dems in Nevada to date — Dems have a very slight registration advantage (less than 20,000) but a significant turnout gap so far.

In 2016, Dems had a significant early in person vote turnout advantage, but that flipped to significantly favor the GOP in 2020, especially in the first week of early voting when the GOP had a 133,467 - 90,564 advantage among early voters in the first week (the two sides essentially tied in much lighter turnout the second week). But that was b/c Dems had a huge lead in returned mail
Ballots, 319k to 181k. (Source - https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/9062/637419197840270000 )
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It will all come down to how the Indy’s are breaking. I’ve seen Twitter users speculate that young voters are mostly Indy and should break significantly for Dems. I’m skeptical and worried that young males in Vegas are going to break more for Trump than people think. I’m expecting Nevada to break for Trump and become more consistently red, but hope I’m wrong.
 

Last Marquette Law School poll before Election Day finds close presidential, Senate race​

wisconsinexaminer.com

Last Marquette Law School poll before Election Day finds close presidential, Senate race • Wisconsin Examiner

The final Marquette University Law School poll ahead of Election Day 2024 shows tight races at the top of the ticket in Wisconsin
wisconsinexaminer.com wisconsinexaminer.com


“… Harris received 50% of support among likely voters, while Trump received 49%. The previous Marquette poll, conducted in late September, found that Harris received 52% of support and Trump received 48% among likely voters.

… When third party candidates including Robert F. Kennedy and Jill Stein were included in the poll, Harris received 46% of support while Trump received 44% of support. Franklin said voters who are undecided and leaning toward voting for a third-party contribute to the uncertainty in this election. …”
 
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politicalwire.com

The Latest Swing State Polls

MICHIGAN Harris 49%, Trump 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 47%, Trump 46% (Washington Post)NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47%, Harris 45% (UMass Lowell)PENNSYLVANIA Harris 48%, Trump 47% (UMass Lowell)This post will be updated as needed throughout the day.
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com

I’ll be out of pocket for a bit today getting a wisdom tooth removed. See if you can divine the election outcome before I get back.

teeth pain GIF by Christina Lu
 
Little piece on Morning Joe this morning In summary-NC Dems have really forth an effort-ground game door knocking-in Mecklenburg County .While Blue-turnout there has lagged far behind .say, Wake. They sincerely think they will turn it out and carry the State I think
 

Should we be worried about the relatively low turnout thus far? I do get why you can’t compare the early voting data to 2020. We were on the midst of a pandemic then and people wanted avoid crowded precincts on Election Day. A significant number of people were also working from home, so could easily just go out on a whim and vote early.

I also feel like this is the type of story we here over and over again during elections. IIRC there were a number of stories about how Biden wasn’t doing as well as Hillary Clinton with certain demographics, but obviously he did well enough to win states that Hillary did not win.
 
Icky Mettle said:

Should we be worried about the relatively low turnout thus far? I do get why you can’t compare the early voting data to 2020. We were on the midst of a pandemic then and people wanted avoid crowded precincts on Election Day. A significant number of people were also working from home, so could easily just go out on a whim and vote early.

I also feel like this is the type of story we here over and over again during elections. IIRC there were a number of stories about how Biden wasn’t doing as well as Hillary Clinton with certain demographics, but obviously he did well enough to win states that Hillary did not win.
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I’m certainly concerned. I’m flabbergasted by the lagging early Democrat turnout. You have a campaign of literal oligarchs and Nazi sympathizers with plans to create economic hardship in order to concentrate the economic fate of the nation in a few hands; an explicit plan to eliminate abortion at the federal level; the overt desire to turn the military against the populous; eliminate no fault divorce; and eliminate student debt relief programs, yet we aren’t seeing forceful turnout to oppose it. Humans are good at projecting terrible possibilities and awful at believing they could happen. I’m baffled Dems wouldn’t have vote the first fucking opportunity.

Also, we could just be seeing profoundly different voting patterns.
 
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