2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[aGDevil2k]

This does not give me warm fuzzies



That disproportionate white/Republican vote early seems very pro-Trump. The CNN cross-tabs didn’t include a subset for those who already voted.

Also, I think the undesignated by gender is warping perception of a gender gap in voting. I think most of the undesignated are probably people who suck at completing forms, and could well be disproportionately men based on the gender gap in registration generally. NC demographics are that just under 49% of the total population are men.

I actually feel very good about that. The black turnout is not bad. And you know the growth in UA has been fueled more by dems moving there than Rs. White vote is also getting more democrat than before. Especially with us folks that actually know how to read.

Gender gap is very positive.

 

[nycfan]

I actually feel very good about that. The black turnout is not bad. And you know the growth in UA has been fueled more by dems moving there than Rs.

Gender gap is very positive.

Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:


But then undesignated gender was less than 1%; now it is over 8% of registered voters and over 6% of folks who have already voted.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:

Wait so we are comparing things to 2008 numbers?

The state has gotten more urban, more educated, and more diverse in that time. Also, a lot of the undesignated gender folks are women. It's probably more 50/50 which gets you closer to the hallowed 2008 numbers.

You are fretting....I hope after Tuesday you delete twitter and work on escaping that toxic hellstorm. I cant imagine the mental toll.

 

[Mundial]

The Latest Swing State Polls

GEORGIA Trump 48%, Harris 47% (CNN) MICHIGAN Harris 49%, Trump 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 47%, Trump 46% (Washington Post) Trump 48%, Harris 47% (Mitchell Research) NORTH CAROLINA Trump 47%, Harris 45% (UMass Lowell) Harris 48%,

politicalwire.com

I’ll be out of pocket for a bit today getting a wisdom tooth removed. See if you can divine the election outcome before I get back.

Omg NYC Fan is really young!

 

[nycfan]

Wait so we are comparing things to 2008 numbers?

The state has gotten more urban, more educated, and more diverse in that time. Also, a lot of the undesignated gender folks are women. It's probably more 50/50 which gets you closer to the hallowed 2008 numbers.

You are fretting....I hope after Tuesday you delete twitter and work on escaping that toxic hellstorm. I cant imagine the mental toll.

I’ve got time today due to a wisdom tooth extraction — basically propped up in bed reading voter data like a demented tarot card novice.

 

[Enigma94]

Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:


But then undesignated gender was less than 1%; now it is over 8% of registered voters and over 6% of folks who have already voted.

Maybe I'm wrong but I have to think undesignated gender isn't likely to be Trump voters.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Maybe I'm wrong but I have to think undesignated gender isn't likely to be Trump voters.

IM A MAN. ALLLLL MAN!

 

[Enigma94]

IM A MAN. ALLLLL MAN!

Exactly. I ain't no undesignated gender you woke fuckers!

 

[nycfan]

Maybe I'm wrong but I have to think undesignated gender isn't likely to be Trump voters.

I have been hoping so but then it seems to not align with NC voting results in 2020 when there were a similar number of undesignated. I dunno — it could include a lot of dopes who are bad at filling out forms.

 

[superrific]

Maybe I'm wrong but I have to think undesignated gender isn't likely to be Trump voters.

I brought up this point earlier this week or maybe last week. People said that demographic info is optional and many people don't fill it out. So I'm not sure that category is as meaningful as you think (and I thought, which is why I was inquiring).

 

[CFordUNC]

I’ve got time today due to a wisdom tooth extraction — basically propped up in bed reading voter data like a demented tarot card novice.

go watch a movie or Netflix!

 

[Enigma94]

I brought up this point earlier this week or maybe last week. People said that demographic info is optional and many people don't fill it out. So I'm not sure that category is as meaningful as you think (and I thought, which is why I was inquiring).

Typically I stay away from trying to parse these statistics as they all blur together and sometimes seem contradictory, so I'm definitely not dying on that hill.

 

[Ddseddse]

Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:


But then undesignated gender was less than 1%; now it is over 8% of registered voters and over 6% of folks who have already voted.

I wouldn't compare 2024 (point in time) Absentee/Early with 2008 General Election. Those two cohorts are just way too divergent to get anything meaningful for a comparison, I think.

 

[superrific]

Here is the gender gap in 2008, last time a Dem won NC for POTUS:


But then undesignated gender was less than 1%; now it is over 8% of registered voters and over 6% of folks who have already voted.

1. That's the gender gap we're seeing now. Actually, so far the gender gap has been about 3%, compared to this 2.5%.
2. I'm not sure what you're saying here. You've pointed out that we won an election with a strong gender gap. You were also saying it doesn't give you fuzzies. I would have expected you to link to 2012, showing a strong gender gap in a losing election.
3. Pre-Dobbs, gender gaps were a different animal altogether.
4. The main reason that Obama won in 2008 was black turnout, which exceeded white turnout by 3 points. If we had that level of turnout in this election, it would be over. This cuts in favor of your point but not in the way you were articulating it. Maybe I missed something here.

 

[superrific]

Typically I stay away from trying to parse these statistics as they all blur together and sometimes seem contradictory, so I'm definitely not dying on that hill.

I know. And it's not necessarily "parsing statistics" -- or really parsing statistics at all -- to observe that "undesignated" gender might be liberal-leaning because of trans or feminist men. You just looked at something and saw some meaning there. I'm just saying that the meaning might not be what it appears at first.

 

[finesse]

Maybe I'm wrong but I have to think undesignated gender isn't likely to be Trump voters.

I looked at my voter registration today and realized I'm undesignated. I don't know if I missed it or just in a general NOYFB attitude ,something not completely uncommon.

 

[nycfan]

1. That's the gender gap we're seeing now. Actually, so far the gender gap has been about 3%, compared to this 2.5%.
2. I'm not sure what you're saying here. You've pointed out that we won an election with a strong gender gap. You were also saying it doesn't give you fuzzies. I would have expected you to link to 2012, showing a strong gender gap in a losing election.
3. Pre-Dobbs, gender gaps were a different animal altogether.
4. The main reason that Obama won in 2008 was black turnout, which exceeded white turnout by 3 points. If we had that level of turnout in this election, it would be over. This cuts in favor of your point but not in the way you were articulating it. Maybe I missed something here.

My primary point is we don’t really know how large the gender gap is in NC early voting because we have no insight into the number of undesignated gender voters who are men or women who didn’t check that box. So if the undesignated who have voted are not 50/50 men and women, but say 75% men, the apparent gap would be a lot closer than it appears just comparing the designated men and women (and assuming undesignated are evenly split or liberal hold-outs of gender labels) who have voted. Or not.

So in 2008, when 0.9% were gender undesignated, 55% of voters identified as female. It is under 52% now.

We will have to wait and see but I don’t think you can discern the true gender gap in voting by just ignoring nearly 7% of undesignated voters, especially when other demo info show disproportionate GOP turnout so far.

 

[05C40]

It popped right out in a few minutes of vigorous twisting. Now waiting to see how bad it gets once numbing agent wears off, but surgeon thinks I should be OK with OTC ibuprofen…

This is important. The dentist probably gave you the tooth. Place the tooth under your pillow before you go to sleep. Your chances of the tooth fairy leaving you a treat will increase dramatically if: (a) you tell your husband of your plans. (b) your husband actually sees you put the tooth under your pillow, and (c) you don't get all nosy if your husband decides he wants some "me time" this evening and takes a short drive/walk.

 

[superrific]

My primary point is we don’t really know how large the gender gap is in NC early voting because we have no insight into the number of undesignated gender voters who are men or women who didn’t check that box. So if the undesignated who have voted are not 50/50 men and women, but say 75% men, the apparent gap would be a lot closer than it appears just comparing the designated men and women (and assuming undesignated are evenly split or liberal hold-outs of gender labels) who have voted. Or not.

So in 2008, when 0.9% were gender undesignated, 55% of voters identified as female. It is under 52% now.

We will have to wait and see but I don’t think you can discern the true gender gap in voting by just ignoring nearly 7% of undesignated voters, especially when other demo info show disproportionate GOP turnout so far.

If undesignated are 75% men, that means they would gain about 2 points. Meaning there would still be a gender gap. I get it -- you said not as large, but 75% is also an implausible assumption, I think.

And I, at least, have not been ignoring that other demo info about GOP turnout. As you said, hiding ballots from abusive husbands might be pretty difficult in some places. To me, it's a lot more plausible that Republican women who want to vote for Kamala and are scared of their husbands are voting solo than the undesignated gender voters are disproportionately male.

 

[heelinhell]

If Arab Americans cause Trump to be elected I hope his first action is to re-implement the Muslim ban and tell Bibi to annex all of Gaza. That's what they will deserve for being so stupid.

I understand the sentiment...

When I was arguing with my younger daughter's girl friends back in 2016 who thought Clinton and Trump were no different and said they might vote for Stein or just not vote at all, I told them to think about the Supreme Court and the possibility that their reproductive rights would be lost if Trump won.

They gave me eyerolls. My visceral (but silent reaction) was "you are gonna get what you deserve". I'm not proud of my reaction, but I understand the sentiment that if Trump wins, Muslims and Palestinian supporters who did not vote for Harris will rue the day for being so naive.