2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[superrific]

I hate these stories. Black voters did not "surge" this week in any meaningful sense of the term. They kept up with white people. Yesterday was the first day in a while that the black/white turnout gap closed, and it wasn't very much -- I think it went from about 10.5% to 10.2%. We'll see what happens today.

However, the Hispanic vote DID surge this week. On Oct 28, the turnout was 22%. As of yesterday, it was 44%. So that's a lot of votes in a condensed period of time. Hmm, I wonder if something happened recently that might juice Hispanic turnout in NC?

Edit: I was looking at the wrong column on the report. Hispanic turnout is now up to 38%. Still acceptable, and still a lot of movement over the last few days, but not quite the surge implied above.

 

[aGDevil2k]

The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??

Depends what polls you are viewing.

The internals and the gender gap are why the confidence of many is quietly increasing

 

[aGDevil2k]

I hate these stories. Black voters did not "surge" this week in any meaningful sense of the term. They kept up with white people. Yesterday was the first day in a while that the black/white turnout gap closed, and it wasn't very much -- I think it went from about 10.5% to 10.2%. We'll see what happens today.

However, the Hispanic vote DID surge this week. On Oct 28, the turnout was 22%. As of yesterday, it was 44%. So that's a lot of votes in a condensed period of time. Hmm, I wonder if something happened recently that might juice Hispanic turnout in NC?

Polls aren't open today

 

[superrific]

TBH I'm not confident. The hopium thread sort of faded away, and with good reason I think.

I don't have any confidence. I do believe our greatest hope is that abortion is on the ballot and that women have had enough. Otherwise it would be a Trump win. It's incomprehensible, really.

The hopium thread faded because it's no longer necessary. The overlap between "hopium" and sober analysis has become substantial. Most of the hopium now is about running up the score.

It's become clear to me that Michigan is not really one of the swing 7. It's lean D. I say that for a number of reasons. Short version is that the Trump/Kamala delta is larger in MIchigan than any of the swing 7. Arizona is probably next closest, and then WI. After that, Trump has a big challenge. Even if he wins PA, he has to hold both GA and NC and then take NV and AZ.

 

[lawtig02]

Depends what polls you are viewing.

The internals and the gender gap are why the confidence of many is quietly increasing

And this, which may be the most important metric of all.

Democrats are beating Republicans in voter enthusiasm, even as swing-state polls show tight race

New polling from Gallup shows more Democrats are enthusiastic about voting than Republicans. But it's unclear how much that translates to votes.

www.businessinsider.com

With just five days to go until Election Day, Democrats appear to have a significant advantage over Republicans when it comes to voter enthusiasm.

According to new polling from Gallup, 77% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, versus 67% of Republicans and GOP-leaning voters who say the same.

That's a slightly higher level of enthusiasmfor Democrats than they had just before the 2008 election, when that same poll found that 76% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters were more enthusiastic than usual about voting. Barack Obama would go on to win that year in an Electoral College landslide.

 

[superrific]

Polls aren't open today

Oh, right. The part of the voter suppression package that the federal court allowed.

Well, then you have it. Strong Hispanic turnout this week put the Hispanic turnout at a respectable 44%. No, sorry, I was looking at the wrong column. 38% turnout. That could be better but my understanding is that Hispanics vote on ED (and indeed they voted late this week).

Black/white turnout gap could be better. We'll see what happens on ED. White turnout is 61%, so beginning to approach the ceiling. The black vote can catch up because it has more low-hanging fruit.

Gender split is amazing -- 4 points. Thus, 51.7% of the total votes cast were women, and 41.1% men. Undesignated pulls 8%. Who knows what that means, but if the gender turnout gap remains at 4, it bodes very well for the campaign.

 

[tallheel95]

The hopium thread faded because it's no longer necessary. The overlap between "hopium" and sober analysis has become substantial. Most of the hopium now is about running up the score.

It's become clear to me that Michigan is not really one of the swing 7. It's lean D. I say that for a number of reasons. Short version is that the Trump/Kamala delta is larger in MIchigan than any of the swing 7. Arizona is probably next closest, and then WI. After that, Trump has a big challenge. Even if he wins PA, he has to hold both GA and NC and then take NV and AZ.

Yeah, I thought I had erased the first part about the hopium thread prior to completing my response, but somehow it got posted.

Here are a couple of articles that give food for thought about why my confidence has been wavering. Let's be clear that I will be devastated if Trump wins... but my method of coping is to try to go ahead and steel myself for a loss.

Opinion | Our 61 Focus Groups Make Me Think Trump Has a Good Chance of Winning

What we learned from interviewing nearly 700 Americans over almost three years.

www.nytimes.com

The Great, Disappearing Trump Campaign

In North Carolina, the Harris campaign has built a massive infrastructure. Trump is employing a very different strategy.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[SmilingJack]

The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??

Trump and team Trump lie about everything and are lying to themselves with inflated polls and flood the poll zone which I believe is driving the "tied race" talk. Not sure why but I believe in my fellow Americans to be better than the MAGA cultists.

 

[superrific]

For all y'all proclaiming the election will be a breeze, the polls sure are keeping up the drama.

There's so much herding right now. If Seltzer is close to accurate, the polling industry will have to take a long look at itself. Everybody is releasing polls affirming the dominant narrative.

 

[superrific]

Yeah, I thought I had erased the first part about the hopium thread prior to completing my response, but somehow it got posted.

Here are a couple of articles that give food for thought about why my confidence has been wavering. Let's be clear that I will be devastated if Trump wins... but my method of coping is to try to go ahead and steel myself for a loss.

Opinion | Our 61 Focus Groups Make Me Think Trump Has a Good Chance of Winning

What we learned from interviewing nearly 700 Americans over almost three years.

www.nytimes.com

The Great, Disappearing Trump Campaign

In North Carolina, the Harris campaign has built a massive infrastructure. Trump is employing a very different strategy.

www.theatlantic.com

That Times article is pretty weak. Who cares about the focus groups from 2022 or 2023?

 

[superrific]

Final Sienna/NYT swing state polls:

These are so bad for Trump. LOL. Especially since MI is a mirage for him.

 

[SmilingJack]

The article about the pollsters being cowards and going with the "tie" narrative just to be safe is part of it.

 

[Calheel]

The betting markets have been surging in Kamala's favor the last four days. Trump still has a very slight lead on some sites, but the margin has shrunk from 30 points to about 2-5 points.

https://kalshi.com/

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

electionbettingodds.com

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The r...

polymarket.com

 

[1moretimeagain]

Just had a Harris canvasser at my door making sure I’d be voting Tuesday.

 

[Duke Mu]

The article about the pollsters being cowards and going with the "tie" narrative just to be safe is part of it.

Yes, they have. the trend is your friend. There's a phase delay in polls, and the Trump insanity is finally having an effect.

 

[superrific]

Just had a Harris canvasser at my door making sure I’d be voting Tuesday.

I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.

 

[Duke Mu]

 

[Duke Mu]

I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.

Trump's game is all interwebz smoke and mirrors

 

[1moretimeagain]

I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.

It may have been Mecklenburg Dems. The only race he specifically asked about was Harris, but the flyer he left was produced by Meck Dems and includes local and state races.

 

[Cappy the Stool Man]

Selzer interview w/The Bulwark.