2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[superrific]

Polls aren't open today

Oh, right. The part of the voter suppression package that the federal court allowed.

Well, then you have it. Strong Hispanic turnout this week put the Hispanic turnout at a respectable 44%. No, sorry, I was looking at the wrong column. 38% turnout. That could be better but my understanding is that Hispanics vote on ED (and indeed they voted late this week).

Black/white turnout gap could be better. We'll see what happens on ED. White turnout is 61%, so beginning to approach the ceiling. The black vote can catch up because it has more low-hanging fruit.

Gender split is amazing -- 4 points. Thus, 51.7% of the total votes cast were women, and 41.1% men. Undesignated pulls 8%. Who knows what that means, but if the gender turnout gap remains at 4, it bodes very well for the campaign.

 

[tallheel95]

The hopium thread faded because it's no longer necessary. The overlap between "hopium" and sober analysis has become substantial. Most of the hopium now is about running up the score.

It's become clear to me that Michigan is not really one of the swing 7. It's lean D. I say that for a number of reasons. Short version is that the Trump/Kamala delta is larger in MIchigan than any of the swing 7. Arizona is probably next closest, and then WI. After that, Trump has a big challenge. Even if he wins PA, he has to hold both GA and NC and then take NV and AZ.

Yeah, I thought I had erased the first part about the hopium thread prior to completing my response, but somehow it got posted.

Here are a couple of articles that give food for thought about why my confidence has been wavering. Let's be clear that I will be devastated if Trump wins... but my method of coping is to try to go ahead and steel myself for a loss.

Opinion | Our 61 Focus Groups Make Me Think Trump Has a Good Chance of Winning

What we learned from interviewing nearly 700 Americans over almost three years.

www.nytimes.com

The Great, Disappearing Trump Campaign

In North Carolina, the Harris campaign has built a massive infrastructure. Trump is employing a very different strategy.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[SmilingJack]

The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??

Trump and team Trump lie about everything and are lying to themselves with inflated polls and flood the poll zone which I believe is driving the "tied race" talk. Not sure why but I believe in my fellow Americans to be better than the MAGA cultists.

 

[superrific]

For all y'all proclaiming the election will be a breeze, the polls sure are keeping up the drama.

There's so much herding right now. If Seltzer is close to accurate, the polling industry will have to take a long look at itself. Everybody is releasing polls affirming the dominant narrative.

 

[superrific]

Yeah, I thought I had erased the first part about the hopium thread prior to completing my response, but somehow it got posted.

Here are a couple of articles that give food for thought about why my confidence has been wavering. Let's be clear that I will be devastated if Trump wins... but my method of coping is to try to go ahead and steel myself for a loss.

Opinion | Our 61 Focus Groups Make Me Think Trump Has a Good Chance of Winning

What we learned from interviewing nearly 700 Americans over almost three years.

www.nytimes.com

The Great, Disappearing Trump Campaign

In North Carolina, the Harris campaign has built a massive infrastructure. Trump is employing a very different strategy.

www.theatlantic.com

That Times article is pretty weak. Who cares about the focus groups from 2022 or 2023?

 

[superrific]

Final Sienna/NYT swing state polls:

These are so bad for Trump. LOL. Especially since MI is a mirage for him.

 

[SmilingJack]

The article about the pollsters being cowards and going with the "tie" narrative just to be safe is part of it.

 

[Calheel]

The betting markets have been surging in Kamala's favor the last four days. Trump still has a very slight lead on some sites, but the margin has shrunk from 30 points to about 2-5 points.

https://kalshi.com/

Election Betting Odds

Live betting odds on the 2024 presidential election, and more! Who will win? Biden, Trump, Harris, DeSantis?...

electionbettingodds.com

PredictIt

www.predictit.org

Presidential Election Winner 2024

Polymarket | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald J. Trump wins the 2024 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The r...

polymarket.com

 

[1moretimeagain]

Just had a Harris canvasser at my door making sure I’d be voting Tuesday.

 

[Duke Mu]

The article about the pollsters being cowards and going with the "tie" narrative just to be safe is part of it.

Yes, they have. the trend is your friend. There's a phase delay in polls, and the Trump insanity is finally having an effect.

 

[superrific]

Just had a Harris canvasser at my door making sure I’d be voting Tuesday.

I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.

 

[Duke Mu]

 

[Duke Mu]

I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.

Trump's game is all interwebz smoke and mirrors

 

[1moretimeagain]

I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.

It may have been Mecklenburg Dems. The only race he specifically asked about was Harris, but the flyer he left was produced by Meck Dems and includes local and state races.

 

[Cappy the Stool Man]

Selzer interview w/The Bulwark.

 

[DiehardHeelFan]

If Harris wins I'm drinking something better than Korbel.

Maybe some Mums

 

[CFordUNC]

I could’ve sworn we had folks promising us that Joe Biden making a gaffe on an obscure Zoom call would be irreparably damaging to the Harris campaign, but a Trump surrogate calling Puerto Ricans garbage and then the campaign doubling down by wheeling Trump around in a garbage truck, would not negatively impact the Trump campaign.

 

[DantesHair]

Seriously?

I’m also surprised that white females go trump, but less so about the numbers that turn out as the rationale. Do they have no self-respect? I can’t imagine my wife or daughters voting for a person that degrades women, has cheated on multiple wives, lies constantly, has been convicted of sexual assault, and has no moral fiber in his body. I can understand why dumb male boomers and zoomers vote for him because their lives didn’t turn out as expected and they don’t want minorities to have additional power/influence or are in it for the lulz, but expect women to be able to be more rational than those morons.

 

[dukeman92]

The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??

Most polls are garbage.
Cross tab data looks really good for Harris.

Women are voting for their freedoms. Even older women are turning out for her. They don’t want their daughters, nieces, grandchildren etc growing up with fewer rights than they did…

And I really think people are just sick of Trump.

 

[CFordUNC]

I’m also surprised that white females go trump, but less so about the numbers that turn out as the rationale. Do they have no self-respect? I can’t imagine my wife or daughters voting for a person that degrades women, has cheated on multiple wives, lies constantly, has been convicted of sexual assault, and has no moral fiber in his body. I can understand why dumb male boomers and zoomers vote for him because their lives didn’t turn out as expected and they don’t want minorities to have additional power/influence or are in it for the lulz, but expect women to be able to be more rational than those morons.

I won’t try to speak for all the women who vote for Trump, but I would imagine the overwhelming, overwhelming vast majority have been brainwashed by the mental disease that is evangelical Christianity. All of the women in my extended family who are voting for Trump have Southern Baptist instilled belief systems that would make the Handmaid’s Tale blush. By contrast, every single one of the college educated women in my extended orbit, even if they are more moderate or conservative, are unimaginably repulsed by Trump and his movement. That’s where the dividing line of demarcation is, IMO: between educated/professional women and their counterparts.