2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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uncjhodges said:
it’s pretty amazing to release an article complaining about herding then ignore the outlier poll from the unanimous best pollster
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He didn't say he ignored it. He said it was balanced out by something else. I mean, maybe. There's so much polling everywhere else that maybe one poll doesn't move the needle that much. I don't know how his model works, exactly. But I would think that this ought to move the average at least somewhat.

In fairness to Nate, it's really hard to calibrate a model when you only get data every 2 or 4 years, the data you do get is highly flawed (i.e. polls), and you can't really measure the accuracy of your model except from the national popular vote, which is meaningless.
 
aGDevil2k said:
I hope this election ends Nate
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I suspect Nate does too. I think he wants to a professional poker player. Or an entrepreneur. Or something other than a guy who gets an enormous amount of shit because he built a forecasting model that is pretty good.

Yes, he's an ass sometimes on twitter and his hot takes are bad. But I just don't understand the extreme vitriol toward him.
 
rodoheel said:
I just want you to know that no matter how hard you guys try you can’t make me confident for Tuesday. I’m assuming it’s a loss until the second the major networks call it. We need big turnout on Tuesday and to avoid Pub shenanigans to suppress the vote.
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If I were a post, this is me. All you optimists … FUCK OFF! I’m pre-coping over here!
 
superrific said:
He didn't say he ignored it. He said it was balanced out by something else. I mean, maybe. There's so much polling everywhere else that maybe one poll doesn't move the needle that much. I don't know how his model works, exactly. But I would think that this ought to move the average at least somewhat.

In fairness to Nate, it's really hard to calibrate a model when you only get data every 2 or 4 years, the data you do get is highly flawed (i.e. polls), and you can't really measure the accuracy of your model except from the national popular vote, which is meaningless.
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No one gets upset about his model (no one being rational)

It's his persona and commentary trying to always be right and always be the expert at everything that rubs everyone the wrong way

People that can't admit they are wrong and have to be overly opinionated are easy to dislike
 
rodoheel said:
I just want you to know that no matter how hard you guys try you can’t make me confident for Tuesday. I’m assuming it’s a loss until the second the major networks call it. We need big turnout on Tuesday and to avoid Pub shenanigans to suppress the vote.
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How did you post these thoughts from my brain?
 
aGDevil2k said:
No one gets upset about his model (no one being rational)

It's his persona and commentary trying to always be right and always be the expert at everything that rubs everyone the wrong way

People that can't admit they are wrong and have to be overly opinionated are easy to dislike
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Dave Chappelle Thinking GIF
 
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