2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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The betting markets have been surging in Kamala's favor the last four days. Trump still has a very slight lead on some sites, but the margin has shrunk from 30 points to about 2-5 points.

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SmilingJack said:
The article about the pollsters being cowards and going with the "tie" narrative just to be safe is part of it.
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Yes, they have. the trend is your friend. There's a phase delay in polls, and the Trump insanity is finally having an effect.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Just had a Harris canvasser at my door making sure I’d be voting Tuesday.
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I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.
 
superrific said:
I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.
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Trump's game is all interwebz smoke and mirrors
 
superrific said:
I finally voted early this weekend. I had been knocked three or four times -- but on reflection, I don't think any of them were Kamala. I got knocked by the state Dems, the county party, an issue advocacy group, and someone running in a down ballot race.

I tell them that I have never voted for a Republican in my life and I ain't gonna start now, so maybe that's why Kamala isn't bothering with me. The state and county Dems might not have that information, or they might think it worthwhile to knock anyway to get a read on down ballot races, and of course the issue-advocacy group has its own agenda that partly but not entirely overlaps with Kamala.

So to me, ground game is important. I haven't been knocked by a single GOP canvasser, which maybe isn't surprising given the info about me. But my neighborhood isn't entirely liberal and I haven't seen any GOP door knockers around. Not that I sit on my porch 10 hours a day and monitor who comes and goes, but there doesn't seem to be much presence outside of yard signs.
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It may have been Mecklenburg Dems. The only race he specifically asked about was Harris, but the flyer he left was produced by Meck Dems and includes local and state races.
 


I could’ve sworn we had folks promising us that Joe Biden making a gaffe on an obscure Zoom call would be irreparably damaging to the Harris campaign, but a Trump surrogate calling Puerto Ricans garbage and then the campaign doubling down by wheeling Trump around in a garbage truck, would not negatively impact the Trump campaign.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Seriously?
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I’m also surprised that white females go trump, but less so about the numbers that turn out as the rationale. Do they have no self-respect? I can’t imagine my wife or daughters voting for a person that degrades women, has cheated on multiple wives, lies constantly, has been convicted of sexual assault, and has no moral fiber in his body. I can understand why dumb male boomers and zoomers vote for him because their lives didn’t turn out as expected and they don’t want minorities to have additional power/influence or are in it for the lulz, but expect women to be able to be more rational than those morons.
 
DrillAndFillHeel said:
The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.

What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
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Most polls are garbage.
Cross tab data looks really good for Harris.

Women are voting for their freedoms. Even older women are turning out for her. They don’t want their daughters, nieces, grandchildren etc growing up with fewer rights than they did…

And I really think people are just sick of Trump.
 
DantesHair said:
I’m also surprised that white females go trump, but less so about the numbers that turn out as the rationale. Do they have no self-respect? I can’t imagine my wife or daughters voting for a person that degrades women, has cheated on multiple wives, lies constantly, has been convicted of sexual assault, and has no moral fiber in his body. I can understand why dumb male boomers and zoomers vote for him because their lives didn’t turn out as expected and they don’t want minorities to have additional power/influence or are in it for the lulz, but expect women to be able to be more rational than those morons.
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I won’t try to speak for all the women who vote for Trump, but I would imagine the overwhelming, overwhelming vast majority have been brainwashed by the mental disease that is evangelical Christianity. All of the women in my extended family who are voting for Trump have Southern Baptist instilled belief systems that would make the Handmaid’s Tale blush. By contrast, every single one of the college educated women in my extended orbit, even if they are more moderate or conservative, are unimaginably repulsed by Trump and his movement. That’s where the dividing line of demarcation is, IMO: between educated/professional women and their counterparts.
 
Reince Priebus was on ABC this morning saying that democrats need 54% of the vote on Election Day in Wisconsin and that there was no chance of that occurring. He said the early vote is incredibly positive for Trump and got no pushback.

Isn’t this just using the thinking Republican = Trump. I was surprised about lack of pushback.
 
I know. They've pushed back so vociferously on everything else the Republicans have claimed this election, one or two of which that were more exaggerated than this one.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
Reince Priebus was on ABC this morning saying that democrats need 54% of the vote on Election Day in Wisconsin and that there was no chance of that occurring. He said the early vote is incredibly positive for Trump and got no pushback.

Isn’t this just using the thinking Republican = Trump. I was surprised about lack of pushback.
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It's them setting the stage for cheating being their only answer

Then they will act aghast at the murder and violence happening
 
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