2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden
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DrillAndFillHeel
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The confidence level on this board for Harris has seemed fairly high over the last few days. The conglomerate of all the polls I see (mostly posted here!) seem to demonstrate a toss up and some even suggesting Trump in the lead.
What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
What’s the source of confidence in light of the above mentioned polls??
lightbluenc
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I’m not confident at all, just hoping her gotv effort makes a difference. I still think he has just as much of a chance at winning as she does. Very concerned about PA and WI still.
CFordUNC
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Personally, my confidence stems from a wide multitude of factors: the most prolific political fundraising machine in history belongs to the Harris campaign; the most prolific grassroots volunteerism effort in political history belongs to the Harris campaign; the Biden administration, of which Harris has been part, has presided over the recovery and expansion of what is now the strongest economy in U.S. history; Democratic enthusiasm is measurably significantly higher than Republican enthusiasm, on par with the 2008 election that was a blowout; Democrats have built the widest ranging coalition in American political history, from Liz Cheney conservative types to Bernie Sanders progressive types and everyone in between; Donald Trump has lost every single election since 2016 on which either he or his MAGA movement have been on the ballot; Donald Trump is unraveling by the minute right before the eyes of the entire country; and last but not least, there are all sorts of polling data out there that are extremely problematic for Trump, even those which show him leading (for example, the Trump campaign says that their internal polling shows him +5 in Iowa, which is awful for him, and other polls in places like Kansas, Ohio, Nebraska, etc. are quite frankly bad for him, as well).
Anyone who is not confident heading into Tuesday is certainly well within their right to feel that way, and their feeling is entirely valid. But it’s based almost strictly upon fear and anxiety of a repeat of 2016, and we might as well be living on a different planet in a different universe right now in this election than we were in 2016.
I have a really, really, really difficult time believing that I should not be anything other than extremely confident when our opponent is spending his final days of his campaign driving around in garbage trucks and simulating oral sex on microphones.
CallMeTyler
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tallheel95
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I don't have any confidence. I do believe our greatest hope is that abortion is on the ballot and that women have had enough. Otherwise it would be a Trump win. It's incomprehensible, really.
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superrific
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I hate these stories. Black voters did not "surge" this week in any meaningful sense of the term. They kept up with white people. Yesterday was the first day in a while that the black/white turnout gap closed, and it wasn't very much -- I think it went from about 10.5% to 10.2%. We'll see what happens today.
However, the Hispanic vote DID surge this week. On Oct 28, the turnout was 22%. As of yesterday, it was 44%. So that's a lot of votes in a condensed period of time. Hmm, I wonder if something happened recently that might juice Hispanic turnout in NC?
Edit: I was looking at the wrong column on the report. Hispanic turnout is now up to 38%. Still acceptable, and still a lot of movement over the last few days, but not quite the surge implied above.
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aGDevil2k
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Depends what polls you are viewing.
The internals and the gender gap are why the confidence of many is quietly increasing
aGDevil2k
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Polls aren't open today
superrific
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The hopium thread faded because it's no longer necessary. The overlap between "hopium" and sober analysis has become substantial. Most of the hopium now is about running up the score.
It's become clear to me that Michigan is not really one of the swing 7. It's lean D. I say that for a number of reasons. Short version is that the Trump/Kamala delta is larger in MIchigan than any of the swing 7. Arizona is probably next closest, and then WI. After that, Trump has a big challenge. Even if he wins PA, he has to hold both GA and NC and then take NV and AZ.
lawtig02
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And this, which may be the most important metric of all.
Democrats are beating Republicans in voter enthusiasm, even as swing-state polls show tight race
New polling from Gallup shows more Democrats are enthusiastic about voting than Republicans. But it's unclear how much that translates to votes.
www.businessinsider.com
With just five days to go until Election Day, Democrats appear to have a significant advantage over Republicans when it comes to voter enthusiasm.
According to new polling from Gallup, 77% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, versus 67% of Republicans and GOP-leaning voters who say the same.
That's a slightly higher level of enthusiasmfor Democrats than they had just before the 2008 election, when that same poll found that 76% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters were more enthusiastic than usual about voting. Barack Obama would go on to win that year in an Electoral College landslide.
superrific
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Oh, right. The part of the voter suppression package that the federal court allowed.
Well, then you have it. Strong Hispanic turnout this week put the Hispanic turnout at a respectable 44%. No, sorry, I was looking at the wrong column. 38% turnout. That could be better but my understanding is that Hispanics vote on ED (and indeed they voted late this week).
Black/white turnout gap could be better. We'll see what happens on ED. White turnout is 61%, so beginning to approach the ceiling. The black vote can catch up because it has more low-hanging fruit.
Gender split is amazing -- 4 points. Thus, 51.7% of the total votes cast were women, and 41.1% men. Undesignated pulls 8%. Who knows what that means, but if the gender turnout gap remains at 4, it bodes very well for the campaign.
tallheel95
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Yeah, I thought I had erased the first part about the hopium thread prior to completing my response, but somehow it got posted.
Here are a couple of articles that give food for thought about why my confidence has been wavering. Let's be clear that I will be devastated if Trump wins... but my method of coping is to try to go ahead and steel myself for a loss.
Opinion | Our 61 Focus Groups Make Me Think Trump Has a Good Chance of Winning
What we learned from interviewing nearly 700 Americans over almost three years.
The Great, Disappearing Trump Campaign
In North Carolina, the Harris campaign has built a massive infrastructure. Trump is employing a very different strategy.
SmilingJack
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Trump and team Trump lie about everything and are lying to themselves with inflated polls and flood the poll zone which I believe is driving the "tied race" talk. Not sure why but I believe in my fellow Americans to be better than the MAGA cultists.
superrific
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There's so much herding right now. If Seltzer is close to accurate, the polling industry will have to take a long look at itself. Everybody is releasing polls affirming the dominant narrative.
superrific
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That Times article is pretty weak. Who cares about the focus groups from 2022 or 2023?Yeah, I thought I had erased the first part about the hopium thread prior to completing my response, but somehow it got posted.
Here are a couple of articles that give food for thought about why my confidence has been wavering. Let's be clear that I will be devastated if Trump wins... but my method of coping is to try to go ahead and steel myself for a loss.
Opinion | Our 61 Focus Groups Make Me Think Trump Has a Good Chance of Winning
What we learned from interviewing nearly 700 Americans over almost three years.www.nytimes.com
The Great, Disappearing Trump Campaign
In North Carolina, the Harris campaign has built a massive infrastructure. Trump is employing a very different strategy.www.theatlantic.com
superrific
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These are so bad for Trump. LOL. Especially since MI is a mirage for him.