2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[lawtig02]

I have no idea. The right wing people all cite it as the most accurate poll in 2020, but I’m not familiar with them,

It’s a Brazilian outfit that doesn’t share its methodology. They don’t have enough history to know if they’re reliable, and nobody knows who’s behind them, although there may be ties to Orban.

 

[Duke Mu]

i think they’re a brazilian polling outfit

Good to see the predictions based on people in the streets of Sao Paolo.

 

[SnoopRob]

I’m unreasonably thrown by your change of avatar.

I'm...sorry?

 

[SnoopRob]

Totally agree with every word of this!

And regarding your first sentence, it ain't the MAGA trolls that worry me if Harris loses. They would be the absolute literal least of my concern. I'd be wayyyyyy more afraid of @SnoopRob , @rodoheel , @HeelingAg , and others on our team!

I won't speak for others, but there's little chance I'll lose my mind on anyone here if Trump wins. I might have a meltdown but it likely won't be directed at anyone.

(Well, unless it's shown that a specific left-of-center group would be responsible for costing Dems the WH for the second time in three elections. That might push me over the edge. But let's hope it doesn't come to that in any way, shape, or form.)

 

[Zoo_View]

At least have good Champagne handy!

 

[Focker]

 

[nycfan]

If the Iowa poll is true, and the election ends up being not even close, it may actually make the MAGATS double down on the cheating accusations, because they’ll say there’s no way she won by that much.


But I guess they are going to do that no matter what, so bring it on I guess

That poll could be true and Trump could max out the margin of error + run the table with undecideds enough to still win Iowa by a healthy margin.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[LosPollosHermanos]

hahahahah that is spectacular (and accurate)

If Harris wins I'm drinking something better than Korbel.

 

[Duke Mu]

That is a ground game.

 

[SnoopRob]

That is a ground game.

 

[akillesheel]

If this turns out to be right, then all the progressives complaining about Kamala working with Liz Cheney need to STFU. For a very long time.

i'm one of them and will happily eat my crow if Kamala wins on the backs of former/never-Trump Republicans. i just can't really get over how little the Lincoln Project actually ended up mattering in 2020. I don't trust Republican voters to not vote for Republicans, and to in fact vote for a Black woman Dem, until I see it happen.

ettinger tweeting a joke like this is a big deal to me. feel like he'd be much more likely to be a doomer who avoided tempting fate at all costs.

 

[nycfan]

 

[Mulberry Heel]

I posted this before and I'll say it again - I'm in my 50s and I've been through many presidential elections, and my "gut instinct" since Kamala became the candidate has consistently been that she's going to win, and by a larger margin than Biden. And I've felt that way mainly because I get the sense that Trump fatigue is real, even among some Republicans. Yet at the same time I've simply been unable to convince myself that she's actually going to win, largely because of the lingering effects of the 2016 shocker and the fact that Trump in 2020 actually increased his vote by 11 million, despite his disastrous handling of the pandemic, among other things. Put simply, I won't believe he's actually going to lose until all the television networks declare Kamala the winner and the electoral vote has been counted on January 6.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[rodoheel]

This is the path to a Trump victory that I continue to worry about: that his hyper-online campaign focusing on Musk, RFK, and the blogging manosphere turns out unprecedented numbers of low-propensity voters (males who are young and/or not college educated) and they are enough to propel him to close wins in several swing states. That was the campaign’s big strategic swing. And IMO this election is basically going to be a referendum on whether you can win a campaign largely premised on online disinformation that can not only win over those low-propensity voters but also get them to vote.

 

[BlueSmoke]

I am not happy with this poll, but not because its wrong. Wisconsin is the state I've been worried about because of its very tight senate race. This poll showing Trump up , is another concern.

 

[lightbluenc]

This is the path to a Trump victory that I continue to worry about: that his hyper-online campaign focusing on Musk, RFK, and the blogging manosphere turns out unprecedented numbers of low-propensity voters (males who are young and/or not college educated) and they are enough to propel him to close wins in several swing states. That was the campaign’s big strategic swing. And IMO this election is basically going to be a referendum on whether you can win a campaign largely premised on online disinformation that can not only win over those low-propensity voters but also get them to vote.

This is literally my exact same fear.

A campaign full of energized people online, that don’t canvass, that aren’t at events, that just will vote to troll America.