2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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CFordUNC said:
Totally agree with every word of this!

And regarding your first sentence, it ain't the MAGA trolls that worry me if Harris loses. They would be the absolute literal least of my concern. I'd be wayyyyyy more afraid of @SnoopRob , @rodoheel , @HeelingAg , and others on our team!
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I won't speak for others, but there's little chance I'll lose my mind on anyone here if Trump wins. I might have a meltdown but it likely won't be directed at anyone.

(Well, unless it's shown that a specific left-of-center group would be responsible for costing Dems the WH for the second time in three elections. That might push me over the edge. But let's hope it doesn't come to that in any way, shape, or form.)
 
CLT Heel said:
If the Iowa poll is true, and the election ends up being not even close, it may actually make the MAGATS double down on the cheating accusations, because they’ll say there’s no way she won by that much.


But I guess they are going to do that no matter what, so bring it on I guess
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That poll could be true and Trump could max out the margin of error + run the table with undecideds enough to still win Iowa by a healthy margin.
 
superrific said:
If this turns out to be right, then all the progressives complaining about Kamala working with Liz Cheney need to STFU. For a very long time.
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i'm one of them and will happily eat my crow if Kamala wins on the backs of former/never-Trump Republicans. i just can't really get over how little the Lincoln Project actually ended up mattering in 2020. I don't trust Republican voters to not vote for Republicans, and to in fact vote for a Black woman Dem, until I see it happen.
CFordUNC said:
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ettinger tweeting a joke like this is a big deal to me. feel like he'd be much more likely to be a doomer who avoided tempting fate at all costs.
 
CFordUNC said:
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I posted this before and I'll say it again - I'm in my 50s and I've been through many presidential elections, and my "gut instinct" since Kamala became the candidate has consistently been that she's going to win, and by a larger margin than Biden. And I've felt that way mainly because I get the sense that Trump fatigue is real, even among some Republicans. Yet at the same time I've simply been unable to convince myself that she's actually going to win, largely because of the lingering effects of the 2016 shocker and the fact that Trump in 2020 actually increased his vote by 11 million, despite his disastrous handling of the pandemic, among other things. Put simply, I won't believe he's actually going to lose until all the television networks declare Kamala the winner and the electoral vote has been counted on January 6.
 
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This is the path to a Trump victory that I continue to worry about: that his hyper-online campaign focusing on Musk, RFK, and the blogging manosphere turns out unprecedented numbers of low-propensity voters (males who are young and/or not college educated) and they are enough to propel him to close wins in several swing states. That was the campaign’s big strategic swing. And IMO this election is basically going to be a referendum on whether you can win a campaign largely premised on online disinformation that can not only win over those low-propensity voters but also get them to vote.
 
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