2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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nycfan said:
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I'm not super excited about this. Trump is counting on turning out low propensity voters. Now maybe these low propensity voters are on our side, or maybe their attachment to Trump was weak and has been severed by his crazy this year, but this is what Trump wants and needs to see.

That said, if it's a special Florida thing, then maybe it's PR's revenge. Maybe Ohio too?
 
nycfan said:


Good news, herding or kiss of death?
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270-267.

Nate Silver must think Maine #2 is in play.

If AlaMaine is in play, Trump is a dead man walking…..and I’m worried this will be Harris 270 Trump 268 or Trump 276 Harris 262.
 
Zoo_View said:
270-267.

Nate Silver must think Maine #2 is in play.

If AlaMaine is in play, Trump is a dead man walking…..and I’m worried this will be Harris 270 Trump 268 or Trump 276 Harris 262.
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It's probably just rounding error. Nate doesn't try to predict outcomes. He tries to predict EVs.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Ummm

Make it make sense. Looks to me like his model is broken
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No, no. You'd see the same thing at 538. It means that there's a much bigger chance of a Kamala blowout than a Trump one.

In the 538 simulation, 1 out of 1000 times, Trump wins with 447 EV, once at 399 and 2 at 382. Meanwhile, there are 20 simulations that give Kamala 400 EVs. It's probably because TX and FL are more in reach for Kamala than NY or CA are for Trump.
 
Focker said:
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Verrrrry interesting. I was born in 1973, the year that Roe V. Wade was decided. Prior the past several years, it was completely inconceivable to me that abortion wouldn't be legal in America. Perhaps some of the women older than me remember the struggle for women's rights prior to RvW... and the women younger than me are feeling the loss. Remember the women's marches after Trump was elected? Sounds like they're showing up at the ballot box, and maybe they're bringing their aunts, grandmothers and/or daughters with them. Meanwhile Trump and Vance have been parading around the bro-verse forgetting that we are in a post-Me Too era, where "whether they like it or not" doesn't fly. Hmmm. Maybe there is hope on Tuesday after all...
 
superrific said:
No, no. You'd see the same thing at 538. It means that there's a much bigger chance of a Kamala blowout than a Trump one.

In the 538 simulation, 1 out of 1000 times, Trump wins with 447 EV, once at 399 and 2 at 382. Meanwhile, there are 20 simulations that give Kamala 400 EVs. It's probably because TX and FL are more in reach for Kamala than NY or CA are for Trump.
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You would think if you have the best chance to win you would actually end up with the most electoral votes
 
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