2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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“An anxious America, weary from a vitriolic campaign season and worried about the state of the nation’s democracy, is voting with determination, with roughly 75 million people having cast ballots in the early voting period.

In North Carolina, nearly 4.5 million voters set an early in-person voting record in the state amid devastation from Hurricane Helene. Georgia voters also set a record with four million voters casting an early ballot.

In Pennsylvania, 1.7 million people voted by mail amid increasingly caustic litigation over whose mail ballots should count.

Nine states have seen more than 50 percent of eligible voters already vote.

Projections from early voting indicate that the overall turnout for the election will probably be between the roughly 60 percent of eligible voters who turned out in 2016 and the two-thirds of eligible voters who voted in 2020, according to Michael McDonald, a professor of politics at the University of Florida who tracks voting. While overall turnout is likely to be slightly lower than the modern high-water mark set in the 2020 election, it still puts the country on pace for a historical high compared with almost all other previous years. …”

www.nytimes.com

In Early Voting Period, Nearly 75 Million Have Cast Ballots

Nearly 75 million people have cast early ballots, making their voices heard amid worry about the process, the outcome and democracy itself.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
superrific said:
Basketball player 1: scores in three consecutive games 14 14 16
Basketball player 2: scores in three consecutive games 10 12 27

If we define "winning" as scoring more points than the other player in a game, Player 1 wins twice (14>10, 14>12).
But 2 averages more points per game.
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Well, that might depend whether you are using mean, median or mode. I'm not sure mean is the logical way for Nate to present the electoral college "average". Median probably makes more sense.
 
Reading there are signs it's not just Puerto Ricans that are quickly moving to Harris after MSG and the garbage stuff... More Latino groups as well may be moving more
 
So, to refresh our memories, my husband and I went back and watched the news coverage of election nights in 1980 (nbc — it showed up in our YouTube feed, which basically started the rabbit hole), 2012 (nbc), 2016 (nbc) and 2020 (nbc), as well as a quick summary of the 2000 election — just watched the opening mood and skimmed for big calls/exit polling moments.

The 1980 one was hilarious - quick good evening everyone, here is how the electoral college works, we just called some smothers states for Reagan and are calling the election. Like they basically said Reagan is going to win at about 730 ET.

The 2012 election coverage was pretty calm even though it was a super close race ( also found a CNN article from election eve that sounds exactly like ones we are reading this weekend — running out of synonyms for close, tied in the battlegrounds, etc.). Lots of familiar talking points but a different set of swing states (FL and OH the keys, but NC was sort of the last one of the nine swing states and they called it for Romney after a few hours). You could really start to see things breaking Obama’s way between 10-11 ET. They talked up the growing use of early voting and how NC was a leading state with a lot of our voters choosing that route.

The 2016 coverage was sort of celebratory and more energetic in the opening — and while they talked about the polls closing in the last few days, they clearly were planning on a Clinton win. Things started looking grim between 8 and 9 pm for Clinton as the expected Dem surge never materialized, and then the floodgates open between 9 and 10. By about 11:30 that night, it was pretty clear Clinton had badly underperformed in blue urban areas in South Florida . The coverage was increasingly manic and they spent a lot of time between their magic wall and their two exit poll experts. A key to the race was late deciders broke about 2-1 to Trump and double haters likewise broke 2-1 to Trump (presumably a lot of overlap among those voters).

The 2020 coverage was insanely manic from the start. We just skimmed first few hours and the main take-away was how Biden was holding slim leads but well underperforming expected margins.

Anyway, interesting but sobering. The undecided electorate broke to Romney late in 2012, but not by a wide enough margin; it looked like for a while Romney might win the popular vote but lose the EC. Undecideds broke hard Trump late in 2016 in the last few weeks and there were a lot of them.
 
nycfan said:
So, to refresh our memories, my husband and I went back and watched the news coverage of election nights in 1980 (nbc — it showed up in our YouTube feed, which basically started the rabbit hole), 2012 (nbc), 2016 (nbc) and 2020 (nbc), as well as a quick summary of the 2000 election — just watched the opening mood and skimmed for big calls/exit polling moments.

The 1980 one was hilarious - quick good evening everyone, here is how the electoral college works, we just called some smothers states for Reagan and are calling the election. Like they basically said Reagan is going to win at about 730 ET.

The 2012 election coverage was pretty calm even though it was a super close race ( also found a CNN article from election eve that sounds exactly like ones we are reading this weekend — running out of synonyms for close, tied in the battlegrounds, etc.). Lots of familiar talking points but a different set of swing states (FL and OH the keys, but NC was sort of the last one of the nine swing states and they called it for Romney after a few hours). You could really start to see things breaking Obama’s way between 10-11 ET. They talked up the growing use of early voting and how NC was a leading state with a lot of our voters choosing that route.

The 2016 coverage was sort of celebratory and more energetic in the opening — and while they talked about the polls closing in the last few days, they clearly were planning on a Clinton win. Things started looking grim between 8 and 9 pm for Clinton as the expected Dem surge never materialized, and then the floodgates open between 9 and 10. By about 11:30 that night, it was pretty clear Clinton had badly underperformed in blue urban areas in South Florida . The coverage was increasingly manic and they spent a lot of time between their magic wall and their two exit poll experts. A key to the race was late deciders broke about 2-1 to Trump and double haters likewise broke 2-1 to Trump (presumably a lot of overlap among those voters).

The 2020 coverage was insanely manic from the start. We just skimmed first few hours and the main take-away was how Biden was holding slim leads but well underperforming expected margins.

Anyway, interesting but sobering. The undecided electorate broke to Romney late in 2012, but not by a wide enough margin; it looked like for a while Romney might win the popular vote but lose the EC. Undecideds broke hard Trump late in 2016 in the last few weeks and there were a lot of them.
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To revisit the 2016 coverage would be a particular form of torture. Kudos to you for sitting through all that.
 
tallheel95 said:
To revisit the 2016 coverage would be a particular form of torture. Kudos to you for sitting through all that.
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The pit in my stomach definitely came back from that night. I remember sitting with a notebook furiously calculating what percentage of remaining votes in South Florida that Clinton needed to come back and win and realizing it was going quickly from difficult to improbable to impossible.
 
nycfan said:
So, to refresh our memories, my husband and I went back and watched the news coverage of election nights in 1980 (nbc — it showed up in our YouTube feed, which basically started the rabbit hole), 2012 (nbc), 2016 (nbc) and 2020 (nbc), as well as a quick summary of the 2000 election — just watched the opening mood and skimmed for big calls/exit polling moments.

The 1980 one was hilarious - quick good evening everyone, here is how the electoral college works, we just called some smothers states for Reagan and are calling the election. Like they basically said Reagan is going to win at about 730 ET.

The 2012 election coverage was pretty calm even though it was a super close race ( also found a CNN article from election eve that sounds exactly like ones we are reading this weekend — running out of synonyms for close, tied in the battlegrounds, etc.). Lots of familiar talking points but a different set of swing states (FL and OH the keys, but NC was sort of the last one of the nine swing states and they called it for Romney after a few hours). You could really start to see things breaking Obama’s way between 10-11 ET. They talked up the growing use of early voting and how NC was a leading state with a lot of our voters choosing that route.

The 2016 coverage was sort of celebratory and more energetic in the opening — and while they talked about the polls closing in the last few days, they clearly were planning on a Clinton win. Things started looking grim between 8 and 9 pm for Clinton as the expected Dem surge never materialized, and then the floodgates open between 9 and 10. By about 11:30 that night, it was pretty clear Clinton had badly underperformed in blue urban areas in South Florida . The coverage was increasingly manic and they spent a lot of time between their magic wall and their two exit poll experts. A key to the race was late deciders broke about 2-1 to Trump and double haters likewise broke 2-1 to Trump (presumably a lot of overlap among those voters).

The 2020 coverage was insanely manic from the start. We just skimmed first few hours and the main take-away was how Biden was holding slim leads but well underperforming expected margins.

Anyway, interesting but sobering. The undecided electorate broke to Romney late in 2012, but not by a wide enough margin; it looked like for a while Romney might win the popular vote but lose the EC. Undecideds broke hard Trump late in 2016 in the last few weeks and there were a lot of them.
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1980 brought about the networks not calling the election until all polls had closed nationwide.****

Many on the West Coast thought the early call by the networks negatively influenced races on the West Coast.

****It might be possible to call things when the polls in HI and AK are still open. They’re 5 hours behind the East Coast.
 
Zoo_View said:
1980 brought about the networks not calling the election until all polls had closed nationwide.****

Many on the West Coast thought the early call by the networks negatively influenced races on the West Coast.

****It might be possible to call things when the polls in HI and AK are still open. They’re 5 hours behind the East Coast.
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Yep, I do recall that. Was still funny to see them say thanks for joining us but the election is over. They also explained how to read their color charts for viewers watching on a black and white TV.
 
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