2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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aGDevil2k said:
If Selzer is even directionally accurate, the EC could be a wipeout
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I agree, and hope that's right. I would love nothing more than to be celebrating a Kamala win before midnight. But I'm not willing to read too much yet into that one poll, even from a respectable poster. My big concern still - and Trump's possible path to victory - is turning out low propensity voters (mostly young males) through his online-manosphere-focused strategy to offset expected big Kamala margins among women. And that is something that would be hard for polling to capture or anticipate, IMO.
 
zeuxis said:
Don't forget: Republican poll inflation is a strategy to amplify the coming accusations of cheating and a stolen election.
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Absolutely, but even if you throw the "red wave" polls in the garbage there are plenty of quality, reputable polls that show extremely tight margins in the key swing states.
 
rodoheel said:
I agree, and hope that's right. I would love nothing more than to be celebrating a Kamala win before midnight. But I'm not willing to read too much yet into that one poll, even from a respectable poster. My big concern still - and Trump's possible path to victory - is turning out low propensity voters (mostly young males) through his online-manosphere-focused strategy to offset expected big Kamala margins among women. And that is something that would be hard for polling to capture or anticipate, IMO.
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Agree, but even harder for his campaign to actually do.
 
rodoheel said:
Absolutely, but even if you throw the "red wave" polls in the garbage there are plenty of quality, reputable polls that show extremely tight margins in the key swing states.
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Look at what Selzer says for why hers works (and is different). She does not use the past to predict the future, as the electorate shifts. She doesn't use past voting history, recalled vote, etc. She uses what people say for their likelihood to vote and the current intent.

Sorry but young males coming out to vote way more than young females that have a chance of dying if they have on unviable pregnancy??? Dont see it. I just dont
 
aGDevil2k said:
Look at what Selzer says for why hers works (and is different). She does not use the past to predict the future, as the electorate shifts. She doesn't use past voting history, recalled vote, etc. She uses what people say for their likelihood to vote and the current intent.

Sorry but young males coming out to vote way more than young females that have a chance of dying if they have on unviable pregnancy??? Dont see it. I just dont
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Me either. Some people are inclined to bite their nails no matter what. Have at it.
 
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nycfan said:
Except in 2008 everyone saw the blow-out coming.
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By the end, yes. But remember McCain had the lead for a while in September before the banks crashed.

www.realclearpolling.com

2008 General Election: McCain vs. Obama | RealClearPolling

2008 General Election: McCain vs. Obama | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com

Nothing that dramatic happened this time, but I have a feeling a gap has opened up that most of the polls have not captured. The last month or so has gone about as well as it possibly could have for Kamala, and about as poorly as it could have for Trump.
 
CHAMTRAIN said:
If Kamala loses it will be because inflation, bottom line. I think she otherwise would have this race in the bag but am very fearful low information voters are going to blame her/Biden for inflation and will vote based on that alone. It's a big deal.
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Reagan dealt with worse inflation during his first term and won in a landslide in ‘84
 
lawtig02 said:
By the end, yes. But remember McCain had the lead for a while in September before the banks crashed.

www.realclearpolling.com

2008 General Election: McCain vs. Obama | RealClearPolling

2008 General Election: McCain vs. Obama | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com

Nothing that dramatic happened this time, but I have a feeling a gap has opened up that most of the polls have not captured. The last month or so has gone about as well as it possibly could have for Kamala, and about as poorly as it could have for Trump.
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I recall but it was a blip lead after the RNC, more like the Dukakis surge in 1988. The recession was already well underway by the Summer of 2008 and the shadow banking run happened in 2007. And when Lehman filed for bankruptcy on September 15, the economy was in genuine free fall and McCain was cooked, even before his disastrous attendance of that weird meeting Bush convened with both candidates to sort of try to hand off the debacle to them ahead of the election.
 
rodoheel said:
I dunno. The big difference in 2008 was that we were coming off of 8 straight years of a Republican administration that ended in a disastrous recession. In this election there's already a Dem president. Now, that should be a benefit because the economy is doing well and there is every reason to believe we're on the right track, but half the country is convinced things are going badly for mostly made-up reasons and can't be persuaded otherwise. So I just can't see 2008 as a model. 2012 would probably be a better comparison.
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I agree with you! Obama won states like Florida, NC, Ohio, Indiana and Iowa. I don’t know if Harris can do that, but I hope I'm wrong.
 
Calheel said:
Reagan dealt with worse inflation during his first term and won in a landslide in ‘84
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He largely got elected due to run away inflation. It then fell from 12% to ~4% by the end of his first term. I don't think Harris and Biden are getting any credit for tamping down inflation but all of the blame for higher prices at the grocery store. I really do think that without inflation this race would not even be close, it's the only reason this won't be a legendary curb stomping.
 
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