2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Nevada politics specialist:

“…
The early vote is different from any since this data was kept in such detail, and I began analyzing it. Usually, the Democrats, fueled by the machine that Harry Reid built, erect a firewall in populous Clark County that is designed as a bulwark against losses in the 15 red counties, with Washoe County often deciding who wins. But this cycle, with former President Donald Trump and Co. discovering it might be smart to encourage Republicans to vote early and even by mail (the horror!), the GOP vote has been frontloaded. The inverse is true and the question is whether the Democrats can overcome a 43,000-plus GOP ballot lead as I write this.

I won’t repeat a lot of my analysis of this – you can read it on the blog — that concludes Trump probably has a 30,000 raw vote lead right now. But my theory of the case is there are still a lot of Clark County mail ballots to be counted that favor Democrats and the GOP partial cannibalization of its Election Day vote will propel some Democrats to victory but perhaps not quite get there with others. Which is which?

… The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close.

Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent. …”
 
Personally I am worried about the dangerous Lutheran vote.......................
 
nycfan said:


Pollercoaster is about to end folks!
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While nice to see, the respondents from that poll also previously voted 58% Joe Biden and 35% Donald Trump, and the actual outcome from the state was 52/45, so maybe not the most representative sample.

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nycfan said:


Pollercoaster is about to end folks!
Click to expand...

Terrible, terrible poll for Trump. If he's really down 28 in NH, he's toast. New Hampshire has a partisan lean of about D+3, I think. HRC won NH by half a point. Biden won it by 7. 17 would either be catastrophic for Trump or it would imply a huge shift in NH partisan alignment. That's not impossible, but it's unlikely.

That said, this is the same pollster who had Kamala up 21 in early October. So whatever they are doing, it's an outlier. The reality is probably more like Kamala +10, which is still good but not necessarily fatal for Trump.
 
tallheel95 said:
While nice to see, the respondents from that poll also previously voted 58% Joe Biden and 35% Donald Trump, and the actual outcome from the state was 52/45, so maybe not the most representative sample.

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You're basically weighting by recalled vote here. That's suspicious methodology for a number of reasons. First, people either forget or are dishonest about who they vote for. Second, it doesn't account for people moving. A lot of people have moved to Sun Belt states in the past four years, and they have to be coming from somewhere. If NH shed 100,000 mostly conservative folks who moved to Florida or Texax seeking freedumb, that itself could be responsible for the 58/35 split.
 
tallheel95 said:
While nice to see, the respondents from that poll also previously voted 58% Joe Biden and 35% Donald Trump, and the actual outcome from the state was 52/45, so maybe not the most representative sample.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com
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Would still suggest, at worst, that Trump is no closer in NH than he was in 2020 (and very likely he's further away)
 
aGDevil2k said:
The holy fuck?!
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Same pollster that had KH +21 earlier in October.

There is a very good chance that the story of this election is going to be herding. There was a poll by Bullfinch where they released the straight data with no massaging (other than constructing a representative sample). It had KH +8 in Michigan.

If you step away from national and swing state polls -- i.e the ones that are most likely to herd, because they are the ones that get the most attention -- the rarely polled states are showing good news. Not just IA. KS was +5 in an RV poll from October -- Trump won it by 14 in 2020. Biden won NE-2 by 6; the polls since August have been KH +8, +12, +9, +11.

These are the states where the overt racism is likely to turn voters off. They like their racism disguised. Remember -- Iowa ran Steve King out of town eventually, and he was nowhere nearly as bad as Trump has been this cycle. There's also abortion, of course.
 
Another thing to consider about some of these Midwest states: Trump has been talking about how there are Venezuelan gangs occupying all these towns in the Midwest, how they are given a green light to shoot police, blah blah blah. The people who best know that to be a ridiculous lie with no basis in reality are the people who live in WI, IA, etc.

The caravans were the way to do it. Literally nobody in the US lives where the caravans were. You can scare people with caravans. They might believe you. But when you say they are taking over WI and people in WI can see that's plainly bullshit, it sort of blunts the message.
 
According to 538, there's been one poll of Indiana, and that was in the field O3-O28. It has Trump +16, which was exactly the 2020 margin. Of course, doing as well as 2020 isn't going to do it for him. He needs to gain at least a point, maybe a point and a half, to win any of the Blue Wall states. This Indiana data point isn't strong evidence either way, but it's another possible non-herded state poll that isn't going his way.
 
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