2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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aGDevil2k said:
So he will win the popular vote and she will win the EC?
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I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility, though it's still highly unlikely and would probably mean razor-thin margins in multiple swing states. I think what he really means, though, is that Republicans, at least publicly, are coming in supremely confident believing that they're in great shape based on polling, and are going to be flabbergasted by the polls they're relying on being off by a few points in Dems' favor - just like Dems in 2016, where we were mostly expecting a comfortable win based on polling and came out shocked by what happened. That election also saw sharp movement in Trump's favor over the last week or two (thanks James Comey) like some people think they're seeing late-breaking movement for Kamala here.

I'm skeptical; I still think what we're going to see is a nailbiter that could fall either way, and may not be called until a day or two after the election.
 
late breaking "undeciders" will determine the margin of victory in the swing states and nationally...

I am guessing the undeciders are going to break for Kamala and save our democracy 🤞
 
rodoheel said:
I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility, though it's still highly unlikely and would probably mean razor-thin margins in multiple swing states. I think what he really means, though, is that Republicans, at least publicly, are coming in supremely confident believing that they're in great shape based on polling, and are going to be flabbergasted by the polls they're relying on being off by a few points in Dems' favor - just like Dems in 2016, where we were mostly expecting a comfortable win based on polling and came out shocked by what happened. That election also saw sharp movement in Trump's favor over the last week or two (thanks James Comey) like some people think they're seeing late-breaking movement for Kamala here.

I'm skeptical; I still think what we're going to see is a nailbiter that could fall either way, and may not be called until a day or two after the election.
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If Selzer is even directionally accurate, the EC could be a wipeout
 
rodoheel said:
I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility, though it's still highly unlikely and would probably mean razor-thin margins in multiple swing states. I think what he really means, though, is that Republicans, at least publicly, are coming in supremely confident believing that they're in great shape based on polling, and are going to be flabbergasted by the polls they're relying on being off by a few points in Dems' favor - just like Dems in 2016, where we were mostly expecting a comfortable win based on polling and came out shocked by what happened. That election also saw sharp movement in Trump's favor over the last week or two (thanks James Comey) like some people think they're seeing late-breaking movement for Kamala here.

I'm skeptical; I still think what we're going to see is a nailbiter that could fall either way, and may not be called until a day or two after the election.
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Don't forget: Republican poll inflation is a strategy to amplify the coming accusations of cheating and a stolen election.
 
Icky Mettle said:
If what Thomas Mills said above is accurate, how is the Black early voting turnout disappointing? It’s 17k more than the turnout from 2020, and that was a year where early turnout was more likely due to the pandemic. I guess I would have to see the numbers from 2016, 2012, and 2008 to get a better understanding.
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If the HBCUs are able to do what they’ve said they’re going to do, then there should be a pretty sizable bump with Black voting numbers. You have to think that not only will they try to get all of the students out to vote, but the alumni base well, which tend to be fairly local. I have hope.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So he will win the popular vote and she will win the EC?
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lol it was more vibes-based than that. here's the tiktok video (for those who don't know, Bouie is an NYT columnist who happens to have a platform on TikTok; I'm not just quoting an online content creator and calling him the smartest political mind we have):

basically, the idea is that trump is now hillary: entering with a lot of confidence and a sense of entitlement to the presidency, but seen as an establishment candidate who polled well but didn't have much energy or attendance at her rallies and events; while kamala - even as the current VP - reads as somewhat anti-establishment due to her identity, "we're not going back" messaging, and the way by which she got the nomination, has vibes and an energized base that belie some of her polling numbers in much the way that we saw happen with Trump.
 
akillesheel said:
Jamelle Bouie, who I think is one of the smartest political minds alive, agrees with you: he shared that he's been feeling that this election very much has the feeling of a "reverse 2016."
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I just don't get this take. If Biden had stayed in the race, trailed substantially in the polling the entire time, and then somehow eked out a win on Election Day behind a bunch of people who didn't show up in the polling, that might be a reverse 2016. But as pessimistic as everyone has been, Kamala has actually looked REALLY GOOD ever since she showed the public she's not the bumbling idiot the Pubs had been making her out to be. The chart of her favorability after she became the nominee is stunning --

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Kamala Harris : Favorability Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

It's come back recently with all of Trump's negative ads, but for the most part, everyone other than hardcore GOPers thinks Kamala is just fine. And a lot of people think she's terrific. I just don't see the corollary to 2016 with Kamala in the race.

I do get why people might think this is more like 2012 than 2008, and here's one way to reconcile it. Non-MAGA men might see this race as more of an "incumbency referendum" like 2012. But I think an enormous percentage of American women see this as a "movement election" like 2008. And in my view, it's the latter that will carry Kamala to a substantial victory.
 
aGDevil2k said:
If Selzer is even directionally accurate, the EC could be a wipeout
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I agree, and hope that's right. I would love nothing more than to be celebrating a Kamala win before midnight. But I'm not willing to read too much yet into that one poll, even from a respectable poster. My big concern still - and Trump's possible path to victory - is turning out low propensity voters (mostly young males) through his online-manosphere-focused strategy to offset expected big Kamala margins among women. And that is something that would be hard for polling to capture or anticipate, IMO.
 
zeuxis said:
Don't forget: Republican poll inflation is a strategy to amplify the coming accusations of cheating and a stolen election.
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Absolutely, but even if you throw the "red wave" polls in the garbage there are plenty of quality, reputable polls that show extremely tight margins in the key swing states.
 
rodoheel said:
I agree, and hope that's right. I would love nothing more than to be celebrating a Kamala win before midnight. But I'm not willing to read too much yet into that one poll, even from a respectable poster. My big concern still - and Trump's possible path to victory - is turning out low propensity voters (mostly young males) through his online-manosphere-focused strategy to offset expected big Kamala margins among women. And that is something that would be hard for polling to capture or anticipate, IMO.
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Agree, but even harder for his campaign to actually do.
 
rodoheel said:
Absolutely, but even if you throw the "red wave" polls in the garbage there are plenty of quality, reputable polls that show extremely tight margins in the key swing states.
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Look at what Selzer says for why hers works (and is different). She does not use the past to predict the future, as the electorate shifts. She doesn't use past voting history, recalled vote, etc. She uses what people say for their likelihood to vote and the current intent.

Sorry but young males coming out to vote way more than young females that have a chance of dying if they have on unviable pregnancy??? Dont see it. I just dont
 
aGDevil2k said:
Look at what Selzer says for why hers works (and is different). She does not use the past to predict the future, as the electorate shifts. She doesn't use past voting history, recalled vote, etc. She uses what people say for their likelihood to vote and the current intent.

Sorry but young males coming out to vote way more than young females that have a chance of dying if they have on unviable pregnancy??? Dont see it. I just dont
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Me either. Some people are inclined to bite their nails no matter what. Have at it.
 
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aGDevil2k said:
Look at what Selzer says for why hers works (and is different). She does not use the past to predict the future, as the electorate shifts. She doesn't use past voting history, recalled vote, etc. She uses what people say for their likelihood to vote and the current intent.

Sorry but young males coming out to vote way more than young females that have a chance of dying if they have on unviable pregnancy??? Dont see it. I just dont
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same thing I told my girlfriend yesterday. I just don’t see a ton of low propensity young men turning out at the last minute tomorrow.
 
nycfan said:
Except in 2008 everyone saw the blow-out coming.
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By the end, yes. But remember McCain had the lead for a while in September before the banks crashed.

www.realclearpolling.com

2008 General Election: McCain vs. Obama | RealClearPolling

2008 General Election: McCain vs. Obama | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com

Nothing that dramatic happened this time, but I have a feeling a gap has opened up that most of the polls have not captured. The last month or so has gone about as well as it possibly could have for Kamala, and about as poorly as it could have for Trump.
 
CHAMTRAIN said:
If Kamala loses it will be because inflation, bottom line. I think she otherwise would have this race in the bag but am very fearful low information voters are going to blame her/Biden for inflation and will vote based on that alone. It's a big deal.
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Reagan dealt with worse inflation during his first term and won in a landslide in ‘84
 
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