2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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circlesky88 said:
www.wral.com

Harris leads Trump in new poll of NC, in drastic reversal

North Carolina voters have swung to the left by double digits since Kamala Harris took over the Democratic Party's presidential campaign, a new Cook Political Report poll found.
www.wral.com www.wral.com
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I wonder how much of Trump's decline in NC is due to Robinson dragging him down. Most recent polls of the governor's race now show Stein leading, and one poll had him up by double digits. Both Trump and Robinson could still easily win NC, of course, but it does appear that as more and more people learn about Robinson the less they like him, at least outside of the absolute GOP base.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I wonder how much of Trump's decline in NC is due to Robinson dragging him down. Most recent polls of the governor's race now show Stein leading, and one poll had him up by double digits. Both Trump and Robinson could still easily win NC, of course, but it does appear that as more and more people learn about Robinson the less they like him, at least outside of the absolute GOP base.
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Not sure Robinson can easily win NC.
 
www.aarp.org

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>
www.aarp.org www.aarp.org

Harris and Trump Tied in Head-to-Head Ballot Among Michigan Voters​


"AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan. The firms interviewed 1,382 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 312 Black likely voters 50 and older. The survey was conducted August 7–11, 2024 via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (37%), as well as SMS to web (38%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Michigan voter list."
AARP.jpeg
 
nycfan said:
www.aarp.org

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>
www.aarp.org www.aarp.org

Harris and Trump Tied in Head-to-Head Ballot Among Michigan Voters​


"AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan. The firms interviewed 1,382 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 312 Black likely voters 50 and older. The survey was conducted August 7–11, 2024 via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (37%), as well as SMS to web (38%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Michigan voter list."
AARP.jpeg
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Even the boomer crowd is growing tired of Trump.
 
nycfan said:
www.aarp.org

In Michigan, Presidential and U.S. Senate Races Extremely Close

<p>Michigan voters 50-plus are the most committed age group for voting in the 2024 election and appear to be on track to decide in the upcoming elections.</p>
www.aarp.org www.aarp.org

Harris and Trump Tied in Head-to-Head Ballot Among Michigan Voters​


"AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Michigan. The firms interviewed 1,382 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 312 Black likely voters 50 and older. The survey was conducted August 7–11, 2024 via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (37%), as well as SMS to web (38%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Michigan voter list."
AARP.jpeg
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I dont even understand this poll.

So AARP is saying they are basically tied with 50+?
 


“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
 
nycfan said:


“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
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It moved
 
nycfan said:


“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
Click to expand...

Chicken My Body Is Ready GIF by giphystudios2021
 
nycfan said:


“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
Click to expand...


Home Run Baseball GIF by MLB
 
nycfan said:


“… In a hypothetical two-way race between Harris and Trump, Harris holds the same six-point edge over Trump, 53 - 47 percent. Kennedy supporters would back Trump 53- 47 percent in a two-way race, indicating that Kennedy is playing a spoiler in favor of Harris.

… This survey was conducted August 11-15, 2024 using online panels, with a sample of 1,858 likely voters. The survey's margin of error is +/- 2.3%, ensuring a reliable snapshot of public opinion at the time of the study. Inter-nested quotas on gender, income, and race/ethnicity were utilized to guarantee that the data accurately represents the nation's diverse composition. …”
Click to expand...

I’ve never heard of Outward Intelligence. Are they reputable?
 
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On the face of it, Harris’s small lead in the national polls and trends in swing states don’t look like enough for her to be the favorite in the electoral college. According to our model, Trump continues to lead in a majority of the battleground states — and if you count up the electoral votes and award them to the candidates leading in those states, Trump comes in at 283 and Harris at 255. The first to 270 wins.
The reason Harris is now the favorite is because Harris has closed the gap with Trump in Sun Belt states enough to open a second path to the presidency.
 
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