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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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superrific said:
The assertion is based on one poll and one article I read, so it's not exactly a well established fact.
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I saw a lot of older and middle age folks and college age folks. Not many families. The early voting polls close at 5 pm on work days, but have longer hours on weekends, where we'd see a different profile.
 
ZenMode said:
What has changed since 2020 that has a real chance of decreasing voter turnout by millions or tens of millions?
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Apathy related to Dems. Trump was successful at getting the Bernie Bros to stay home in the blue wall states in 2016. That strategy remains. The good news is that Stein and RFK puppets will draw a significantly lower % than 2016.

Kamala's brown and a woman. Cities and town in the Midwest with the exception of college towns are not as integrated as areas along the Atlantic seaboard. The worst racists I ever knew or met were from Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Florida, not North Carolina.
 
Duke Mu said:
Apathy related to Dems. Trump was successful at getting the Bernie Bros to stay home in the blue wall states in 2016. That strategy remains. The good news is that Stein and RFK puppets will draw a significantly lower % than 2016.

Kamala's brown and a woman. Cities and town in the Midwest with the exception of college towns are not as integrated as areas along the Atlantic seaboard. The worst racists I ever knew or met were from Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Florida, not North Carolina.
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Ugh. That sounds like Clarence Thomas' bullshit about how the biggest racists he encountered at Yale were the liberals.

I mean, I can't and won't dispute your personal experience, and yes there are plenty of racists in those Midwest states, but North Carolina is a more racist state period. Maybe not this year, because I can't measure that. But if you look over the past two decades (to say nothing of the previous four or twenty) -- I just find it improbable that the racism isn't worse in NC. Except possibly the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where I haven't been but I've been told is really not a place where minorities want to live.
 
Duke Mu said:
The early voting polls close at 5 pm on work days, but have longer hours on weekends, where we'd see a different profile.
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Where are you? In Mecklenburg, early voting is open 8 AM-7:30 PM weekdays, 8-3 Saturdays, and 1-5 Sundays.
 
superrific said:
Ugh. That sounds like Clarence Thomas' bullshit about how the biggest racists he encountered at Yale were the liberals.

I mean, I can't and won't dispute your personal experience, and yes there are plenty of racists in those Midwest states, but North Carolina is a more racist state period. Maybe not this year, because I can't measure that. But if you look over the past two decades (to say nothing of the previous four or twenty) -- I just find it improbable that the racism isn't worse in NC. Except possibly the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where I haven't been but I've been told is really not a place where minorities want to live.
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I lived in the Midwest. You have no idea - they are just quieter about it. The record for KKK members was set in Indiana. There was a town in that between Indianapolis and Bloomington in the 1990s that wouldn't let blacks move in. (also north of ATL in the foothills).

Hell, they call Ohio North Kentucky now!
 
superrific said:
Ugh. That sounds like Clarence Thomas' bullshit about how the biggest racists he encountered at Yale were the liberals.

I mean, I can't and won't dispute your personal experience, and yes there are plenty of racists in those Midwest states, but North Carolina is a more racist state period. Maybe not this year, because I can't measure that. But if you look over the past two decades (to say nothing of the previous four or twenty) -- I just find it improbable that the racism isn't worse in NC. Except possibly the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, where I haven't been but I've been told is really not a place where minorities want to live.
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Indiana is pretty awful for racism
 
farce© said:
Where are you? In Mecklenburg, early voting is open 8 AM-7:30 PM weekdays, 8-3 Saturdays, and 1-5 Sundays.
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Texas. Gov. Abbott and the legislature here have their thumb on the scale (limited voting polls in cities, limited hours for students, etc.)

The good news *may* be that the 2020 Trump campaign already cried wolf on WhattsApp in Spanish to Latino communities (e.g., south Texas, south FL) where they literally spread rumors that blacks were going to come, take away their jobs, abuse their daughters. I'm not kidding.
 
Duke Mu said:
Apathy related to Dems. Trump was successful at getting the Bernie Bros to stay home in the blue wall states in 2016. That strategy remains. The good news is that Stein and RFK puppets will draw a significantly lower % than 2016.

Kamala's brown and a woman. Cities and town in the Midwest with the exception of college towns are not as integrated as areas along the Atlantic seaboard. The worst racists I ever knew or met were from Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Florida, not North Carolina.
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Ok, I thought you were talking about a change of laws or voting requirements that was going to cause a decrease.
 
Duke Mu said:
Texas. Gov. Abbott and the legislature here have their thumb on the scale (limited voting polls in cities, limited hours for students, etc.)

The good news *may* be that the 2020 Trump campaign already cried wolf on WhattsApp in Spanish to Latino communities (e.g., south Texas, south FL) where they literally spread rumors that blacks were going to come, take away their jobs, abuse their daughters. I'm not kidding.
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[emilylitellavoice] oh, never mind [/emilylitellavoice]
 


To help consideration of the Bite Hub map of turnout by county, here is a map of how those counties voted for POTUS in 2020:


IMG_3304.jpeg


Turnout % so far is lower in a lot of the blue counties vs the red ones.
 
nycfan said:
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nycfan said:


To help consideration of the Bite Hub map of turnout by county, here is a map of how those counties voted for POTUS in 2020:


IMG_3304.jpeg


Turnout % so far is lower in a lot of the blue counties vs the red ones.
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Did not look like there were many that voted this past weekend or Sunday. Perhaps after next weekend the blue county numbers will pick up.

On other hand, perhaps Republicans have either adopted early voting this elections or that Republicans are more energized this election then last? If more energized then the trend could certainly carry over to other states.
 
nycfan said:




I actually find it hard to believe anyone is voting for Robinson and yet unlikely he finishes with less than 42-43%.
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Yep. I think in Robinson's case we're about to find out what the absolute minimum, "bottom" GOP vote is in North Carolina statewide races. And like you said I'm afraid it's going to be over 40%, maybe even close to 45%.
 
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