superrific
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I'd say that Kamala is winning at the moment. It's not in the polls just yet, but the momentum has shifted a lot. And she has a lot of room to grow.
I'd also say there's a non-trivial chance of an 08 magnitude landslide. I'm not saying that's a likely outcome, but I think it's on the table. For years, MAGA has been running the risk of complete implosion. In fact, in some places, it has imploded (like AZ and MI). And Trump's campaign has that risk, since Trump himself seems intent on alienating everyone not in his base, just so he can get more plaudits from his base.
Basically Trump has been surviving on smoke and mirrors -- i.e. Biden is old, and inflation. Biden's not here any more, and inflation has subsided. Interest rates are going to be cut; the economy is still humming; inflation is at 2%; and wages keep going up. There's substantial evidence that the absolute state of the economy matters less in a presidential election than the direction of the economy, and the direction of the economy continues to trend upward.
In 1984, for instance, the economy had still not recovered what was lost from 81-83. And Reagan wasn't actually that popular in spring of 1984. But the economy was trending in the right direction and so it was "Morning in America." There's not going to be that level of landslide, obviously, but there's a chance for Kamala to be boosted by Trump's idiocy and the economic tailwinds to a resounding victory.
As long as she continues to be likeable while eliciting "get off my lawn" reactions from old, stuffy white dudes from the South, it will help her immensely.
I'd also say there's a non-trivial chance of an 08 magnitude landslide. I'm not saying that's a likely outcome, but I think it's on the table. For years, MAGA has been running the risk of complete implosion. In fact, in some places, it has imploded (like AZ and MI). And Trump's campaign has that risk, since Trump himself seems intent on alienating everyone not in his base, just so he can get more plaudits from his base.
Basically Trump has been surviving on smoke and mirrors -- i.e. Biden is old, and inflation. Biden's not here any more, and inflation has subsided. Interest rates are going to be cut; the economy is still humming; inflation is at 2%; and wages keep going up. There's substantial evidence that the absolute state of the economy matters less in a presidential election than the direction of the economy, and the direction of the economy continues to trend upward.
In 1984, for instance, the economy had still not recovered what was lost from 81-83. And Reagan wasn't actually that popular in spring of 1984. But the economy was trending in the right direction and so it was "Morning in America." There's not going to be that level of landslide, obviously, but there's a chance for Kamala to be boosted by Trump's idiocy and the economic tailwinds to a resounding victory.
As long as she continues to be likeable while eliciting "get off my lawn" reactions from old, stuffy white dudes from the South, it will help her immensely.
