2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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'This sucker is baked': Bush adviser explains why he's certain Harris has already won

'This sucker is baked': Bush adviser explains why he's certain Harris has already won A core adviser to George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain made an election prediction Friday which he said was almost certain: “This sucker is baked.” Mark McKinnon, who served as the chief media adviser for...
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'This sucker is baked': Bush adviser explains why he's certain Harris has already won

A core adviser to George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain made an election prediction Friday which he said was almost certain: “This sucker is baked.”

Mark McKinnon, who served as the chief media adviser for both Republicans, shared his conclusion in Vanity Fair.

He said that, with only 18 days until America goes to the polls and with no major events scheduled that could potentially shake-up the race, Kamala Harris could comfortably start planning her victory party.

“I mean, when you have the nominee of a major political party mentally unplugging during a town hall, stopping answering questions, and swaying along to his own Spotify playlist for 39 interminable minutes—and no one seems to blink—we’re out of surprises,” he wrote.

“There’s no big last debate. No tentpole events likely to shake up the race in these dwindling days. Yes, a full-on war could break out in the Middle East. Or another hurricane could blow ashore, wreaking havoc—and Category 5 conspiracy theories. But the reality is that if nothing or everything happens between now and November 5, it’s unlikely to change the outcome.

“This sucker is baked.”

Explaining how he reached his prediction, he said he doesn’t believe there are undecided voters — if somebody hasn’t yet made a decision, chances are they won’t be going to the polls.

So it now comes down to which camp can get more of their voters to turnout — and while Trump supporters are “committed,” Harris' are “excited.”

And then there’s each team’s ground game. Trump is largely relying on volunteers, while Harris’ army of field workers is paid.

“In addition, Trump suddenly seems not just lazy, weak (by dodging another debate, for instance), and old, but also truly out of it,” he wrote.

“Some days he makes it seem like the “25” in Project 2025 is a secret plan to execute the 25th Amendment if he actually gets elected, paving the way for—Lord help us—President JD Vance.”

He continued, “Meanwhile, Harris looks strong and confident. She’s demanding another debate. She’s marching into the lion’s den of Fox News and perhaps Joe Rogan’s podcast. She’s running clips of Dictatorial Donald at her rallies—to cheers and jeers. On the campaign trail, she’s enlisting the help of a raft of ready-for-prime-time players, including Barack Obama, other top Democrats, and a number of anti-Trump Republicans.”

And then there’s the gender card. McKinnon wrote that he expects record-breaking turnout for women voters — and the vast majority will vote for Harris.

He concluded, “Kamala Harris is going to win. Maybe easily.”
 
CFordUNC said:
And then there’s the gender card. McKinnon wrote that he expects record-breaking turnout for women voters — and the vast majority will vote for Harris.
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This was said about Clinton yet Biden won a larger share of the female vote.
 
“Explaining how he reached his prediction, he said he doesn’t believe there are undecided voters — if somebody hasn’t yet made a decision, chances are they won’t be going to the polls.“

I’m not sure how much of Mark McKinnon’s analysis I believe, but I absolutely agree with the above statement. I have been screaming for months that there are no undecided voters to be swayed. This election is about commitment, enthusiasm, and get out the vote. It’s not about Kamala Harris. It is about who is more committed, those trying to reelect Trump or those determined to keep him out. Trump knows this, that’s why he has gone scorched earth in the last few weeks. He isn’t trying to convince anybody to vote for him, he’s just trying to keep the true believers fired up.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
I hope you don’t think I’m remotely worried about not being able to interact with you anymore. lol at being such a snowflake you need to use “Super Ignore” on an internet message board about politics.
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Your last sentence gives you away. To you this is a game so why would anyone want to use super ignore in the game.

Normal people want honest thoughtful debate. Erasing those who don’t provide thar is a simply common sense step to take.

If you really wanted honest engagement, you would have understood why super ignore is beneficial.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
I feel like everything will break for Harris but a national lead of 1-2 in the polls is very, very, very concerning. I think the polls are wrong and she’ll win easily.
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I've posted this before, but my "gut instinct" has been for the past couple of months that she will win, and perhaps by a larger margin than Biden. I do think that "Trump fatigue" is real, even among some Republicans (exactly how many, I have no idea. It's definitely a minority, that's for sure). Yet at the same time I just can't convince myself that she is going to win, probably because of flashbacks to 2016. I guess we'll see which proves to be right - my gut instinct or my anxiety lingering from another election.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I've posted this before, but my "gut instinct" has been for the past couple of months that she will win, and perhaps by a larger margin than Biden. I do think that "Trump fatigue" is real, even among some Republicans (exactly how many, I have no idea. It's definitely a minority, that's for sure). Yet at the same time I just can't convince myself that she is going to win, probably because of flashbacks to 2016. I guess we'll see which proves to be right - my gut instinct or my anxiety lingering from another election.
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You and me both
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
Your last sentence gives you away. To you this is a game so why would anyone want to use super ignore in the game.

Normal people want honest thoughtful debate. Erasing those who don’t provide thar is a simply common sense step to take.

If you really wanted honest engagement, you would have understood why super ignore is beneficial.
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There are plenty of posters on here who aren’t so childish they have to “super ignore” other posters on an Internet forum.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
How many of you all have a Harris (or Trump) sign in your front yard?

So my situation. I am separated (have been for years) but split time between an apartment and our house. We do this so that our special needs child can stay permanently at the house.

I told my ex that I didn't want signs in our yard because I don't want my house shot up nor do I want to be put on some type of list. I know that sounds paranoid for a low probability event but the cost of not having a sign is really low too. She initially agreed but then put up a Harris sign.

It isn't a big deal (knock on wood) but it does concern me a bit. Our neighborhood is probably 80% Harris voters so I am not concerned about people from within the neighborhood but I just don't think now is the time to prominently display your political affiliations.

Just my thought. I am not making a deal of it. But I will take the sign down immediately after the election, win or lose.
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I have a sign, but it’s specifically a Veterans for Harris sign, so people will likely think better of messing with me over it.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
There are plenty of posters on here who aren’t so childish they have to “super ignore” other posters on an Internet forum.
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Actually it's the posters who don't have you on ignore (like me) who are the childish ones, in that we get a perverse, childish pleasure out of insulting you for your seemingly deliberate stupidity (actually I know you can't help it, but I don't care). It's an odd thing to get pleasure from, but perhaps not as odd as the pleasure you get from being insulted for your stupidity. But clearly you do. Like the old saw about publicity, for you there's no such thing as bad attention...
 
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