2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

[Icky Mettle]

This will not turn Oklahoma blue, but it is nice to see...

'Insecure and weak': Shock move sees Trump dumped by GOP mayor from heart of Bible belt

Voters in a strong red state have received a dire warning from their capital's Republican mayor not to elect former President Donald Trump. Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt, a lifelong Republican, wrote in the Philadelphia Citizen Thursday why he cannot vote for Trump. "I will vote for virtue,"...

www.rawstory.com

In 2020, Oklahoma was the only state not to have a single county go blue, which is crazy to me. I wonder if Oklahoma County (where Oklahoma City is) will at least go blue this time. Or perhaps Tulsa County.

 

[Paine]

This is political terrorism, and I'm beginning to think that terrorism is endemic to Arab culture. That is, Arab culture simply doesn't recognize discourse as a mode of political behavior. It's always about leverage. It's always about who can be taken hostage and held for ransom.

It's as if they look at October 7 and say, "Hmm, that Hamas strategy is pretty good. Let's try it. Let's focus on getting our revenge and if tens of thousands die as a result, inshallah."

idk about that one chief

 

[Healing]

This is political terrorism, and I'm beginning to think that terrorism is endemic to Arab culture. That is, Arab culture simply doesn't recognize discourse as a mode of political behavior. It's always about leverage. It's always about who can be taken hostage and held for ransom.

It's as if they look at October 7 and say, "Hmm, that Hamas strategy is pretty good. Let's try it. Let's focus on getting our revenge and if tens of thousands die as a result, inshallah."

 

[superrific]

idk about that one chief

idk either. I said I'm beginning to think. But the behavior of these Arab voters in Michigan is really inexplicable otherwise. And it's not just the voters. It's their leaders.

If you reject the terrorism framing, then basically they're threatening to transform into the Green Party. They want to be Jill Stein. it will take them decades before they have any political power if Kamala loses because they didn't vote for her. Nobody will ever take their concerns seriously.

 

[Paine]

idk either. I said I'm beginning to think. But the behavior of these Arab voters in Michigan is really inexplicable otherwise. And it's not just the voters. It's their leaders.

If you reject the terrorism framing, then basically they're threatening to transform into the Green Party. They want to be Jill Stein. it will take them decades before they have any political power if Kamala loses because they didn't vote for her. Nobody will ever take their concerns seriously.

I think it’s more so that American Arab voters are just as uninformed as the general American voting population, not anything to do with their culture.

 

[nycfan]

At least as many as an incoming UNC freshman at first day of orientation ?

 

[thebruinbleedstarheelblue]

I have a theory about this election... no idea if it's true. In 2016, there were A LOT of voters (women in particular) who said they were voting for Hillary... but then voted Trump when they were privately in the voting box. The idea being that they did not want to explain to their friends and family why they were voting Trump.

I think the opposite will happen this election. Because the topic has become so toxic, I think a lot of people (women in particular) in MAGA families and communities will vote against Trump when they get in the ballot box... but will claim to have voted for him if asked, so they don't have to deal with the backlash.

I think this, especially with white women

 

[nycfan]

Trump being clear on his priorities:

 

[superrific]

I thinks it’s more so that American Arab voters are just as uninformed as the general American voting population, not anything to do with their culture.

1. It's not just the voters. It's their community leaders. This uncommitted movement was/is being led by Tlaib and her sister.
2. Have you read interviews with those community leaders? They are not uninformed. They know exactly what they are doing. Tlaib has, at the last minute, decided to retreat from "punish Kamala" to a completely nonsensical position of not endorsing Kamala, but also telling people not to vote for Trump, or any 3rd party candidate. But that's not the whole movement.
3. I remember when the Dems sent Khanna and Jayapal to go talk to them. The subject, as reported, was along the lines of "here's how you translate your anger into constructive change." The Arabs told them to fuck off, basically.

This absolutely is a cultural thing. My invocation of terrorism was meant to be polemic and explosive, and I'm not going to pursue that characterization much further. But there is something distinctive about this particular political movement. It isn't like others. I suppose it's not entirely different from the House Freedom Caucus approach to governing.

 

[rodoheel]

This is political terrorism, and I'm beginning to think that terrorism is endemic to Arab culture. That is, Arab culture simply doesn't recognize discourse as a mode of political behavior. It's always about leverage. It's always about who can be taken hostage and held for ransom.

It's as if they look at October 7 and say, "Hmm, that Hamas strategy is pretty good. Let's try it. Let's focus on getting our revenge and if tens of thousands die as a result, inshallah."

No offense, but I think that's a pretty big leap you're making there to suggestion that Arabs are terroristic by nature. I don't like broad racial generalizations like that and think it's a bit of a stretch in this instance. And in any event the leftists who want to "punish" Harris are by no means exclusively Arab; in fact many of the most vocal advocates I see on Twitter and elsewhere do not appear to be Arab.

 

[Paine]

1. It's not just the voters. It's their community leaders. This uncommitted movement was/is being led by Tlaib and her sister.
2. Have you read interviews with those community leaders? They are not uninformed. They know exactly what they are doing. Tlaib has, at the last minute, decided to retreat from "punish Kamala" to a completely nonsensical position of not endorsing Kamala, but also telling people not to vote for Trump, or any 3rd party candidate. But that's not the whole movement.
3. I remember when the Dems sent Khanna and Jayapal to go talk to them. The subject, as reported, was along the lines of "here's how you translate your anger into constructive change." The Arabs told them to fuck off, basically.

This absolutely is a cultural thing. My invocation of terrorism was meant to be polemic and explosive, and I'm not going to pursue that characterization much further. But there is something distinctive about this particular political movement. It isn't like others. I suppose it's not entirely different from the House Freedom Caucus approach to governing.

I don’t think anyone would say that white voters are voting for Trump because of their white culture. After all, there are plenty of white people (and Arab people) who will vote for Harris.

Putting people into a box based on your notions of what their culture is, as if it’s some kind of immutable characteristic of Arab people, is pretty racist.

We’ll just have to agree to disagree because I’m not going to derail the thread by talking about this.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[gregh1]

My only potential concern is 2020 Biden voters that just decide to not vote now. I also think there are some 2020 Biden voters that are very disconnected politically, and will just swap to a different party because its different if they think something needs to change.

Also there were quite a few "double haters" that would probably fall into this camp. Did she sway some of them?

 

[GQNC]

You cannot tell anything about the election from party registration alone. HOWEVER, you can start to get meaningful information if you can triangulate with outside sources. If it's true that Kamala is leading among "already voted" in NC 55-43, given those registration statistics, that would be amazing. It wouldn't be game over yet, but it would put Kamala in a great position.

Where is this Marist poll being referred to. You know, if something is too good to be true -- well, I'd like to see just what that poll measured and how.

I found it. Eh, it's not a poll. It's just a cross-tab in the poll. So while it's still somewhat meaningful (because an already voted is even better than a likely vote, and because it does at least triangulate with the registration data a little bit), it's not overly so. I wouldn't make predictions from it.

I would also be interested to see more details about this Marist data, but anecdotally I can see it happening. Just in my sphere, my wife and I are UNA, our son-in-law and his mom are GOP, my nephew’s wife is GOP, and about half the people we canvassed and got responses from in Concord were UNA - all of us have or plan to vote for Harris.

Of these my son-in-law’s family has been GOP for generations and he is a fiscal conservative. He hates Trump and what he has done to his party and votes straight D to punish the shit birds. My nephew’s wife was obnoxiously FOR Trump eight years ago, but she hates him now.

Still only anecdotal, but enough anecdotes tend to point to a trend.

 

[CFordUNC]

I would also be interested to see more details about this Marist data, but anecdotally I can see it happening. Just in my sphere, my wife and I are UNA, our son-in-law and his mom are GOP, my nephew’s wife is GOP, and about half the people we canvassed and got responses from in Concord were UNA - all of us have or plan to vote for Harris.

Of these my son-in-law’s family has been GOP for generations and he is a fiscal conservative. He hates Trump and what he has done to his party and votes straight D to punish the shit birds. My nephew’s wife was obnoxiously FOR Trump eight years ago, but she hates him now.

Still only anecdotal, but enough anecdotes tend to point to a trend.

Great to hear! Also purely anecdotal, but my mother-in-law and father-in-law are lifelong, hardcore, loyal Republican voters in Mecklenburg County. My FIL is a retired state legislator who at one point held the most conservative “scorecard” in the NCGA (he also had one of the best records of crossing the aisle to collaborate, which got him successfully primaried from the right). I say all that to say these are people who have very rarely if ever voted for Democrats, period, and especially not for president or governor. They both voted Harris and Stein.

 

[superrific]

No offense, but I think that's a pretty big leap you're making there to suggestion that Arabs are terroristic by nature. I don't like broad racial generalizations like that and think it's a bit of a stretch in this instance. And in any event the leftists who want to "punish" Harris are by no means exclusively Arab; in fact many of the most vocal advocates I see on Twitter and elsewhere do not appear to be Arab.

1. OK, I didn't say "terroristic" by nature. Pointing to culture is literally the opposite: they are that way by nurture.
2. It's not a racial generalization. Arabs are not a race. They aren't an ethnicity either. They are a subset of an ethnicity.
3. I used the phrase terrorist intentionally as a polemic. Look at my follow up description. It's a failure to recognize the power of discourse. I don't know enough about the history of the area to explain why. It's true that neither democracy nor free speech have much of a tradition in these places, so maybe it's simply inexperience, so to speak. Speaking truth to power probably isn't a thing in Jordan or Syria.

 

[superrific]

I don’t think anyone would say that white voters are voting for Trump because of their white culture.

What? I would say that 100%.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[Paine]

What? I would say that 100%.

That makes no sense. I’m a white guy from the South who is steeped in Southern culture. I’m not voting for Trump.

There is nothing inherent about being white or Arab that will make someone vote a certain way.

 

[EhringhausSouth]

Goodness. And I also saw where they had to remove some non-citizens from the voter rolls in Georgia (only 20, but still how does that happen to begin with?) I predict an absolute crap show and crazy claims to the point if there are any actual issues no one will know what to believe.