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2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
Paine said:
That makes no sense. I’m a white guy from the South who is steeped in Southern culture. I’m not voting for Trump.

There is nothing inherent about being white or Arab that will make someone vote a certain way.
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1. I'm talking about propensities, not all individuals. I mean, come on. What about my posts over the years suggests that I would be taking such a rigid binary view about whole populations.

2. Tell me: the white guys from the South steeped in white Southern culture -- how do they vote? Is it just an accident?

3. Let me tell you about an experiment I did about a decade ago. I called it the "Ethiopian Food Test." Background: I love Ethiopian food, and so does my ex-wife and our kids. My current wife also. But my parents won't even touch it, nor my conservative cousins.

So I started asking people I knew, including acquaintances at the law school: do you eat Ethiopian food, or would you if given the opportunity. There was almost a 100% correlation. Political conservatives are the ones who say, "Ethiopian food, what's that? Dirt and sand?" Political liberals like it.

This dovetails with psychological research demonstrating a link between a trait referred to as "openness to experience" with political orientation. Psychologists look at it in terms of personality, because after all, that's what they study. But it just cannot be an accident that white people who live on the coasts just happen to be open to experience and thus ready to eat different food. Or listen to different music. It has to be cultural. To wit:

4. One thing that really surprised me when I moved to the Midwest to teach was the music. So many hair metal bands from the 80s that I thought had long broken up -- they haven't! They just play shows throughout the Midwest. And the classic rock out here -- it's not just that classic rock is played more than other places I've lived, but the type of classic rock. The worst of it. The arena rock scene. People like the Stones here just like everywhere, and not more so from what I've seen. But Foreigner and Journey and BTO Overdrive are big popular here and I can't remember the last time I ever heard that shit on the East Coast.

5. Country music. There is a huge correlation between listening to country music and voting GOP. Again, I don't think that's an accident. I'm pretty sure, in fact, that it's not, because modern country music was marketed and popularized as part of the Southern Strategy to create a white conservative culture based on racial exclusiveness by more subtle means.

Do you think people raised on country music are more likely to be GOP and have conservative views than white kids raised on hip-hop?
 
Last thing I’ll say here about it, message me if you want.

You can say you’re talking about propensities and I’ll agree. That’s not what your initial post said.

I’ve made it clear that I think economic and material factors drive culture. There is not some immutable character to Southern culture, or Arab culture (such that there is any singular Arab culture) that makes people vote a certain way.

Your posts in the past have also made it clear that you look down on people in the South and wanted to get as far away from it as you could.

It’s weird behavior to look at a poll that says a bare majority of Arab voters could vote for Trump and then say that terrorism is an immutable part of Arab culture.

So are the Arab voters voting for Harris not real Arabs? It would be news to them, I’m sure.
 
EhringhausSouth said:
Goodness. And I also saw where they had to remove some non-citizens from the voter rolls in Georgia (only 20, but still how does that happen to begin with?) I predict an absolute crap show and crazy claims to the point if there are any actual issues no one will know what to believe.
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I used to work with databases for big corporations. I got paid quite a bit of money to "clean up" the data. I can tell you with 100% certainty that weird stuff gets into databases one way or another. I mean, there are people whose jobs are literally "data scrubbers."

If 20 records out of the millions on the Georgia rolls were in error, that would be an unbelievably clean database. Like, my life would have been so much simpler (and my paycheck smaller) if corporate data had that level of completeness. Instead, we would get things like entries in the supplier tables with no name or address for the supplier; there would be invoices and payments on those invoices without any amounts listed. We'd have like 15 different entries for the same supplier, with similar but not quite the same names. There would be quantities ordered that were orders of magnitude too high -- I remember there was one entry for a trillion glassware items for a lab. How does a thousand become a trillion?

I also used to work with Nielsen data -- not just the US but around the world. Again, there's some weird data that gets in there somehow. In Mexico, the NIelsen sample included one household that averaged 160 hours of TV viewing per week. There are 168 hours in a week. But it wasn't just someone who left the TV on at night. There were like 6000 channel changes per week at that household. I inquired with the company and they looked into it and sent us revised data.

If we knew how this garbage gets into data, we'd stop it. But we don't know. My friend at Salesforce worked with a team of data scrubbers at a client site -- that was 5 years ago!

So the 20 non-citizen voters on the Georgia rolls -- that's extraordinarily high quality data from my informed experience.
 
Paine said:
Last thing I’ll say here about it, message me if you want.

You can say you’re talking about propensities and I’ll agree. That’s not what your initial post said.

I’ve made it clear that I think economic and material factors drive culture. There is not some immutable character to Southern culture, or Arab culture (such that there is any singular Arab culture) that makes people vote a certain way.

Your posts in the past have also made it clear that you look down on people in the South and wanted to get as far away from it as you could.

It’s weird behavior to look at a poll that says a bare majority of Arab voters could vote for Trump and then say that terrorism is an immutable part of Arab culture.

So are the Arab voters voting for Harris not real Arabs? It would be news to them, I’m sure.
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OK, I will edit my original post then. I didn't say propensity because I thought that would be assumed. I am always talking about propensities.

I don't look down on people in the South.

I don't know where you got the word "immutable." I didn't use it; I didn't say anything like it; as far as I can tell, you made that up.
 
Paine said:
Last thing I’ll say here about it, message me if you want.

You can say you’re talking about propensities and I’ll agree. That’s not what your initial post said.
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I found the confusion. I used the word "always." I can see how that could be interpreted to mean "everyone at all times." But what I meant was a serial correlation. In conflict after conflict, this is the approach. Not everyone, and not literally every single conflict. And I wouldn't put it on Islam, because in my experience, non-Arab Muslims have as much or more interest in discourse as a problem solving method than Americans. As it happens, I don't really know many Arab Muslims. I know non-Muslim Arabs and non-Arab Muslims.

Anyway, I've corrected it now.
 
superrific said:
5. because modern country music was marketed and popularized as part of the Southern Strategy to create a white conservative culture based on racial exclusiveness by more subtle means.
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Do you have any kind of proof for this statement? I would like to read it.
 


“…
When asked if the United States could potentially end all federal taxation, Mr. Trump said the country could return to the economic policies in the late 19th century, when there was no federal income tax.

“It had all tariffs — it didn’t have an income tax,” Mr. Trump said. “Now we have income taxes, and we have people that are dying. They’re paying tax, and they don’t have the money to pay the tax.”

In June, Mr. Trump floated the idea of replacing federal revenue from income taxes with money received from tariffs.

… Either way, both liberal and conservative experts have dismissed his idea as mathematically impossible and economically destructive. Even if Republicans control Congress, lawmakers are unlikely to dismantle the income tax system. Yet Mr. Trump’s combination of tax cuts and tariff increases has been central to his political pitch. …”
 
Trump said on day 1 he would fire Jack Smith. I thought the whole point of special prosecutors is that they are outside the normal firing process.
 
nycfan said:


“…
When asked if the United States could potentially end all federal taxation, Mr. Trump said the country could return to the economic policies in the late 19th century, when there was no federal income tax.

“It had all tariffs — it didn’t have an income tax,” Mr. Trump said. “Now we have income taxes, and we have people that are dying. They’re paying tax, and they don’t have the money to pay the tax.”

In June, Mr. Trump floated the idea of replacing federal revenue from income taxes with money received from tariffs.

… Either way, both liberal and conservative experts have dismissed his idea as mathematically impossible and economically destructive. Even if Republicans control Congress, lawmakers are unlikely to dismantle the income tax system. Yet Mr. Trump’s combination of tax cuts and tariff increases has been central to his political pitch. …”
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Just going to point out I posted this on October 10th:

"We are about two weeks away from Trump claiming he'll get rid of all taxes and fund what's left of the government through tariffs."

Today is exactly two weeks from that post. Oh and nice for the NYT to include a "he won't be able to do this anyway" sanewash in the article with - "Even if Republicans control Congress, lawmakers are unlikely to dismantle the income tax system." The HeelYeah's of the world appreciate this.
 
Enigma94 said:
Just going to point out I posted this on October 10th:

"We are about two weeks away from Trump claiming he'll get rid of all taxes and fund what's left of the government through tariffs."

Today is exactly two weeks from that post. Oh and nice for the NYT to include a "he won't be able to do this anyway" sanewash in the article with - "Even if Republicans control Congress, lawmakers are unlikely to dismantle the income tax system." The HeelYeah's of the world appreciate this.
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I know some people believe in this stuff, but a betting market is more open to influence than just about anyother vote indicator. Not sure why people WHO SHOULD KNOW BETTER like Frank Luntz was giving this shit any credence.

gizmodo.com

Polymarket Says the Four Whales Betting Big on Trump Are Actually Just One French Guy

Sacrebleu!
gizmodo.com gizmodo.com

Amid a tight race, people have been looking to the betting markets as a potentially stronger signal for the expected outcome of the November presidential election. Surely people putting their money where their mouths are will have stronger convictions about what’s going to happen, right?


It turns out, however, that just one individual has poured more than $45 million into bets favoring Donald Trump on Polymarket, the crypto-based betting website. The company was forced to investigate after it was discovered that just four accounts were placing disproportionate bets in favor of Trump winning the election.

In a statement to DealBook, Polymarket confirmed that a single trader based in France controls the accounts, a finding they came to following an investigation. Bets on Polymarket are placed using stablecoins, allowing users to remain somewhat anonymous—though with enough effort, blockchain analysis firms can often trace the origins of funds and unmask wallet holders.

Polymarket does not operate in the United States due to a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and there were questions raised about whether an American was bypassing the restriction to sway the betting markets in favor of Trump. It seems that’s not the case, but the finding from Polymarket goes to show that predictive betting sites are easy to manipulate and not a reflection of reality.

A concern critics raise with betting markets like Polymarket is that voters could be swayed by inauthentic sentiment for or against a candidate. It’s the same reason why platforms like X (before Elon took over) would crack down on networks of bot farms spreading inauthentic content—a flood of coordinated messaging from seemingly real accounts might sway undecided voters towards certain beliefs, such as that Trump has more support amongst Americans than he really does.
 
GQNC said:
I would also be interested to see more details about this Marist data, but anecdotally I can see it happening. Just in my sphere, my wife and I are UNA, our son-in-law and his mom are GOP, my nephew’s wife is GOP, and about half the people we canvassed and got responses from in Concord were UNA - all of us have or plan to vote for Harris.

Of these my son-in-law’s family has been GOP for generations and he is a fiscal conservative. He hates Trump and what he has done to his party and votes straight D to punish the shit birds. My nephew’s wife was obnoxiously FOR Trump eight years ago, but she hates him now.

Still only anecdotal, but enough anecdotes tend to point to a trend.
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Dang it GQNC, stop giving me so much hope! You’re killing my angsty vibe 😂😂
 
altmin said:
Trump said on day 1 he would fire Jack Smith. I thought the whole point of special prosecutors is that they are outside the normal firing process.
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Outside the normal firing process, but not terribly protected. The AG can fire the special prosecutor.

So Trump can't do it on day 1. I think only the AG can fire the special prosecutor, and on Day 1 the acting AG would probably be Garland's deputy. But I'd expect Trump to submit his AG nomination almost immediately and it would be rubber-stamped.

The important thing, of course, is Trump signaling that this is his #1 most important priority.
 
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