2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

[Healing]

I don’t want to rehash this argument again, just want to point out that the Gaza dynamic is a bit more complex than just leftists not voting for Harris.

She has major issues with Arab voters because of Gaza. I don’t think they’re all leftists. Most of these people voted for Joe Biden in 2020. Leftists aren’t voting Trump over Harris. It seems like a lot of Arab voters will vote Trump over Harris.

Again, not making an argument about the efficacy of doing this.

To be clear, I wasn’t trying to use a broad brush. Rather, my commentary was an attempt to offer some degree of my knowledge to a circumstance that, on its face, appears irrational, yet has reason whether we like it or not.

 

[Paine]

I know you can't really pull any meaningful info from voters by party registration, but this is all so thoroughly confusing when looking at it like that.

Wouldn’t that mean that significant numbers of UNA and Rep voters have cast early votes for Harris?

 

[Duke Mu]

probably whispered it

That is literally Idolatry.

It's so ironic.

 

[Paine]

To be clear, I wasn’t trying to use a broad brush. Rather, my commentary was an attempt to offer some degree of my knowledge to a circumstance that, on its face, appears irrational, yet has reason whether we like it or not.

I got you. I should’ve responded directly to rodo’s post instead of yours. Just sort of a stream of consciousness on my part more than anything.

 

[ChapelHillSooner]

And that’s what ultimately drove me away. As someone who asks questions about everything, that attitude is repulsive to me.

When one question is asked that they can’t answer, the worldview crumbles. They are forced to reject facts that are right in front of them in service to fundamentalism.

That is sort of what drove me away. To them, faith means unwavering belief. That is a mental state that is impossible for me to achieve. I can't pretend that I know something with absolute certainty that I do not know. My church days were spent thinking that I was (or might be) going to hell because I could never reach the state of absolute knowledge that I was told I had to reach.

 

[theel4life]

 

[Paine]

That is sort of what drove me away. To them, faith means unwavering belief. That is a mental state that is impossible for me to achieve. I can't pretend that I know something with absolute certainty that I do not know. My church days were spent thinking that I was (or might be) going to hell because I could never reach the state of absolute knowledge that I was told I had to reach.

I deal with it with my family members all the time. Idk how many times I’ve told them that they can still be a Christian and accept scientific proof of evolution, the Big Bang, etc.

But if they accept these things, then that also leads to questioning other parts of religious dogma. It’s a challenge to their worldview that they can’t compute. Makes me very sad, tbh.

 

[Duke Mu]

Bakari Sellers nailed it last night post Harris Town Hall - Trump gets to act lawless and VP Harris has to be flawless.

It's absolutely maddening.

Sanewashing by the MSM.

 

[lightbluenc]

Wouldn’t that mean that significant numbers of UNA and Rep voters have cast early votes for Harris?

That's the hope I think.

 

[Duke Mu]

I know you can't really pull any meaningful info from voters by party registration, but this is all so thoroughly confusing when looking at it like that.

I certainly hope it's true. Robinson's upballot disaster for Trump saves the US? PA + NC would likely clinch it for Harris.

 

[Carolina Fever]

This gets repeated over and over but it is simply not an accurate representation of many in the MAGA cult. It describes some but it does not in any way describe them all.

One thing they have in common is that none of them believe anything negative that comes out about Trump. One reason for this is that they are too vested in the cult of personality. The cognitive dissonance that would arise if they believed the worst about Trump would be mentally debilitating.

That is most obvious for those who believe Trump is some type of messianic figure. Trump is now so tied into their belief system that questioning one threatens the other.

It describes the vast majority of his supporters and why they support him in the first place.

 

[Paine]

That's the hope I think.

Anecdotal I know, but I was eavesdropping on several convos in my early voting line.

One guy said he had a poster of Nixon above his bed as child and is voting for Harris.

Now, if I had a poster of Nixon over my bed as child, you wouldn’t be able to torture that info out of me. But I’m glad he’s voting for Harris lol.

 

[UNCRx85]

That is sort of what drove me away. To them, faith means unwavering belief. That is a mental state that is impossible for me to achieve. I can't pretend that I know something with absolute certainty that I do not know. My church days were spent thinking that I was (or might be) going to hell because I could never reach the state of absolute knowledge that I was told I had to reach.

Not to derail, but same. It's not that I refuse to believe - it's that I can't. And it took me a while, but I've come to terms with it and am a lot more comfortable with that truth.

And I, too, remember being in church every Sunday as a kid, peeping at everyone else during prayers, and never once seeing anyone peeping back... Never really felt that connection, either.

 

[heelinhell]

This will not turn Oklahoma blue, but it is nice to see...

'Insecure and weak': Shock move sees Trump dumped by GOP mayor from heart of Bible belt

Voters in a strong red state have received a dire warning from their capital's Republican mayor not to elect former President Donald Trump. Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt, a lifelong Republican, wrote in the Philadelphia Citizen Thursday why he cannot vote for Trump. "I will vote for virtue,"...

www.rawstory.com

 

[SnoopRob]

Anecdotal I know, but I was eavesdropping on several convos in my early voting line.

One guy said he had a poster of Nixon above his bed as child and is voting for Harris.

Now, if I had a poster of Nixon over my bed as child, you wouldn’t be able to torture that info out of me. But I’m glad he’s voting for Harris lol.

I kinda want to meet someone who had a poster of Nixon above their bed as a child.

That would have to be an interesting person.

 

[Carolina Fever]

This will not turn Oklahoma blue, but it is nice to see...

'Insecure and weak': Shock move sees Trump dumped by GOP mayor from heart of Bible belt

Voters in a strong red state have received a dire warning from their capital's Republican mayor not to elect former President Donald Trump. Oklahoma City Mayor David Holt, a lifelong Republican, wrote in the Philadelphia Citizen Thursday why he cannot vote for Trump. "I will vote for virtue,"...

www.rawstory.com

This is what gives me hope Harris will win. You don't hear of people that voted for Biden turning to Trump, but there have been many Pubs who have said they will vote for Harris. And I don't see a whole wave of new voters that will vote for Trump. At least not as many new voters that will vote for Harris.

 

[NYCBlueBlood]

I have a theory about this election... no idea if it's true. In 2016, there were A LOT of voters (women in particular) who said they were voting for Hillary... but then voted Trump when they were privately in the voting box. The idea being that they did not want to explain to their friends and family why they were voting Trump.

I think the opposite will happen this election. Because the topic has become so toxic, I think a lot of people (women in particular) in MAGA families and communities will vote against Trump when they get in the ballot box... but will claim to have voted for him if asked, so they don't have to deal with the backlash.

 

[lightbluenc]

This is what gives me hope Harris will win. You don't hear of people that voted for Biden turning to Trump, but there have been many Pubs who have said they will vote for Harris. And I don't see a whole wave of new voters that will vote for Trump. At least not as many new voters that will vote for Harris.

My only potential concern is 2020 Biden voters that just decide to not vote now. I also think there are some 2020 Biden voters that are very disconnected politically, and will just swap to a different party because its different if they think something needs to change.

 

[superrific]

Yeah and even that view is just a myopic focus on Gaza, ignoring all the other marginalized groups who will suffer immensely under a Trump presidency (poor immigrant communities, refugees, poor women who need abortions and reproductive care, etc). The world is a big and complicated place, and I just don't understand boiling your entire political identify down to one specific group of people, no matter how horribly they're being treated - and even then refusing to choose the electoral decision that has the best chance to help them.

This is political terrorism, and I'm beginning to think that terrorism is endemic to Arab culture. That is, Arab culture by and large doesn't recognize discourse as a mode of political behavior. It's always about leverage. It's always about who can be taken hostage and held for ransom. By always, I mean temporally; I'm talking about a propensity among a population and not the entire population itself.

I wonder if the uncommitted, "punish Harris" folks look at October 7 and say, "Hmm, that Hamas strategy is pretty good. Let's try it. Let's focus on getting our revenge and if tens of thousands die as a result, inshallah."

 

[superrific]

I know you can't really pull any meaningful info from voters by party registration, but this is all so thoroughly confusing when looking at it like that.

You cannot tell anything about the election from party registration alone. HOWEVER, you can start to get meaningful information if you can triangulate with outside sources. If it's true that Kamala is leading among "already voted" in NC 55-43, given those registration statistics, that would be amazing. It wouldn't be game over yet, but it would put Kamala in a great position.

Where is this Marist poll being referred to. You know, if something is too good to be true -- well, I'd like to see just what that poll measured and how.

I found it. Eh, it's not a poll. It's just a cross-tab in the poll. So while it's still somewhat meaningful (because an already voted is even better than a likely vote, and because it does at least triangulate with the registration data a little bit), it's not overly so. I wouldn't make predictions from it.