CallMeTyler
Esteemed Member
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Research Circle? Is that a new thing?
I tend to agree, but we did just see two dramatic events happen in four days, and three in less than a month. The odds are high we’ll have a few more before early November. But the momentum is very much in Kamala’s favor, and that’s a MUCH better place to be in early August.Unless some dramatic shift occurs Trump is toast.
The GOP has a large Electoral College advantage over the Democrats.Unless some dramatic shift occurs Trump is toast.
Trump’s campaign manager to his critics:
But he should have turned off the comments — a lot of MAGA faithful are pretty mad at him right now, apparently…
That would be almost impossible. She could win by 4-5 points and lose the electoral college, but MI, PA and Wisc are too closely correlated to the national average to support a 6-7 point delta.The GOP has a large Electoral College advantage over the Democrats.
Harris could win the popular vote by 6-7 points and still lose the Electoral College.
The big moments to watch:We are about to reach the point where the sugar high of Harris becoming the nominee wears off, which makes it a good time to pick a VP.
But there is no perfect VP choice who won’t irritate some portion of the Dem coalition and from there the real slog of the election begins.
With the VP pick and the Dem convention still to come, maybe the Harris campaign can keep their roll going until as late as Labor Day, but in the news cyclone era we find ourselves in, that seems unlikely.
It can feel like Harris is winning thanks to her momentum but really she has reset the game to a back and forth 1-point nail biter, not taken some sort of commanding lead. The press will start pressing her for interviews and policy positions soon and she has to be ready for that.
The nice thing is that in a truncated campaign the honeymoon has a disproportunate positive impact.We are about to reach the point where the sugar high of Harris becoming the nominee wears off, which makes it a good time to pick a VP.
But there is no perfect VP choice who won’t irritate some portion of the Dem coalition and from there the real slog of the election begins.
With the VP pick and the Dem convention still to come, maybe the Harris campaign can keep their roll going until as late as Labor Day, but in the news cyclone era we find ourselves in, that seems unlikely.
It can feel like Harris is winning thanks to her momentum but really she has reset the game to a back and forth 1-point nail biter, not taken some sort of commanding lead. The press will start pressing her for interviews and policy positions soon and she has to be ready for that.
Agree. Like if Harris answers one question poorly or has a misstep, equating that to a half hour of racist comments directed at black journalists isnt the same thing.I hope the liberal media, in an attempt to appear unbiased, doesn't start picking nits with respect to Harris, yet give Trump a free pass to pretty much do and say whatever he wants.
As the PSA guys said recently, even if weird doesn’t have staying power, boring and stale probably do. Trump’s just tedious at the point. Nothing new, nothing interesting. Just the same old boring, tired, self-indulgent litany of grievances. Ain’t nobody got time for that.While I do agree that the initial sugar high of the Harris nomination will subside, and while I fully believe that there will be ebbs and flows and good days and bad days for the Harris campaign, I think that the organic, grassroots momentum that the campaign has, has legitimate bonafide sustainable staying power. The jaw-dropping amount of money that they've raised (much of it from brand-new, first-time campaign donors), the incredible number of new grassroots campaign volunteers that have signed up in battleground states, the number of new voter registrations, and the fact that the campaign has taken social media (especially TikTok) by storm, all combine to make me think that the campaign has not even come close to reaching its peak or its upside.
On the other hand, the Trump campaign is old, angry, bitter, vengeance-driven, and tried- and has probably hit its ceiling. The fact that such a substantial percentage of Republican voters continued to turn out to cast anti-Trump votes in the GOP primary even long after Nikki Haley had surrendered, tells me that there is a not-insignificant number of Republicans who may just sit the presidential ballot out (and, of course, perhaps a few will even vote for Harris).
This is definitely going to be a tense, closely-contested, hard-fought election. No doubt about it. There is a very, very, very real chance that Trump could win it. But I don't think he will. Judging strictly by the aforementioned fundraising numbers, volunteer sign-ups, GOTV efforts, and new voter registrations, I think we are going to see a renewed and energized wave of Democratic enthusiasm and turnout that we haven't seen since the 2008 election. And when Democrats are enthused and excited, they turn out, and when they turn out, they win.