2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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HandsonFire said:
Unless some dramatic shift occurs Trump is toast.
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I tend to agree, but we did just see two dramatic events happen in four days, and three in less than a month. The odds are high we’ll have a few more before early November. But the momentum is very much in Kamala’s favor, and that’s a MUCH better place to be in early August.
 
There is a stark contrast between Harris' positive energy, her joy, her hope for the future and Trump's unrelenting pessimism, dourness, and hellish language when describing America. It has been there all along, of course, but the past few days have highlighted this more and more.

People should remember that fear leads to the dark side.
 
Trump’s campaign manager to his critics:



But he should have turned off the comments — a lot of MAGA faithful are pretty mad at him right now, apparently…
 
nycfan said:
Trump’s campaign manager to his critics:



But he should have turned off the comments — a lot of MAGA faithful are pretty mad at him right now, apparently…
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Typical MAGA bluster and macho behavior, but in truth his response is just more evidence of how badly he has managed Trump's campaign to this point. They lucked into Biden's first debate disaster, and pretty much everything the Trump campaign has done since then - the RNC Convention and Trump's rambling, terrible acceptance speech, picking Vance for veep, the disastrous interview with black journalists, having done no preparation in case Biden dropped out - has backfired. There's still a long way to go until November, but so far this dude might as well be giving the finger to his candidate and the rest of his campaign staff given how inept he's been since Biden dropped out.
 
www.nytimes.com

Harris Campaign Says It Raised $310 Million in July, More Than Double Trump’s Haul

In the seven days after President Biden stepped down as the presumptive Democratic nominee, the Harris campaign raked in $200 million.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign survived a brutal few weeks of fund-raising in July to bounce back so dramatically before the end of the month that she more than doubled the amount of money raised by former President Donald J. Trump, her campaign announced on Friday.

The Harris campaign, which for the first 20 days of July was the Biden campaign, said it had raised $310 million during the month, including $200 million in just seven days after President Biden dropped out of the race.

The Trump campaign and its own allies said on Thursday that they had collected $139 million in July, an enormous sum but well short of what the Harris campaign said it had brought in amid a huge burst of enthusiasm about her candidacy. The Harris campaign raised almost as much in July as the Biden campaign had raised in March, April, May and June combined.

The surge in fund-raising has allowed Democrats, for the first time in months, to have a cash-on-hand advantage over Republicans. The Harris campaign said it now had $377 million in its war chest, in contrast to the $327 million that the Trump campaign has said it has.

Neither campaign disclosed precisely how much of the money was raised or held by the campaigns themselves versus their allied party committees.
 
We are about to reach the point where the sugar high of Harris becoming the nominee wears off, which makes it a good time to pick a VP.

But there is no perfect VP choice who won’t irritate some portion of the Dem coalition and from there the real slog of the election begins.

With the VP pick and the Dem convention still to come, maybe the Harris campaign can keep their roll going until as late as Labor Day, but in the news cyclone era we find ourselves in, that seems unlikely.

It can feel like Harris is winning thanks to her momentum but really she has reset the game to a back and forth 1-point nail biter, not taken some sort of commanding lead. The press will start pressing her for interviews and policy positions soon and she has to be ready for that.
 
Zoo_View said:
The GOP has a large Electoral College advantage over the Democrats.

Harris could win the popular vote by 6-7 points and still lose the Electoral College.
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That would be almost impossible. She could win by 4-5 points and lose the electoral college, but MI, PA and Wisc are too closely correlated to the national average to support a 6-7 point delta.
 
nycfan said:
We are about to reach the point where the sugar high of Harris becoming the nominee wears off, which makes it a good time to pick a VP.

But there is no perfect VP choice who won’t irritate some portion of the Dem coalition and from there the real slog of the election begins.

With the VP pick and the Dem convention still to come, maybe the Harris campaign can keep their roll going until as late as Labor Day, but in the news cyclone era we find ourselves in, that seems unlikely.

It can feel like Harris is winning thanks to her momentum but really she has reset the game to a back and forth 1-point nail biter, not taken some sort of commanding lead. The press will start pressing her for interviews and policy positions soon and she has to be ready for that.
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The big moments to watch:

1. The inevitable 60 Minutes interview.
2. The DNC speech.
3. The debates, if they happen.
4. The first no-holds-barred press conference.

If Kamala can do well with those, she has a good chance of keeping her generally positive momentum.
 
nycfan said:
We are about to reach the point where the sugar high of Harris becoming the nominee wears off, which makes it a good time to pick a VP.

But there is no perfect VP choice who won’t irritate some portion of the Dem coalition and from there the real slog of the election begins.

With the VP pick and the Dem convention still to come, maybe the Harris campaign can keep their roll going until as late as Labor Day, but in the news cyclone era we find ourselves in, that seems unlikely.

It can feel like Harris is winning thanks to her momentum but really she has reset the game to a back and forth 1-point nail biter, not taken some sort of commanding lead. The press will start pressing her for interviews and policy positions soon and she has to be ready for that.
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The nice thing is that in a truncated campaign the honeymoon has a disproportunate positive impact.

The campaign needs to highlight her critical role in the hostage negotiations over the weekend. I agree that the VP announcement and the convention should keep the honeymoon going at least through Labor Day.

Next comes the debate with Trump or an empty chair that is scheduled for Sept 10 and with a good performance that should extend the honeymoon until October.

Also, a successfully negotiated cease fire in Gaza would be an added bonus.

At that point if she can avoid the traditional negative "October surprise", then I think there is a very good chance our democracy will be saved in November.
 
While I do agree that the initial sugar high of the Harris nomination will subside, and while I fully believe that there will be ebbs and flows and good days and bad days for the Harris campaign, I think that the organic, grassroots momentum that the campaign has, has legitimate bonafide sustainable staying power. The jaw-dropping amount of money that they've raised (much of it from brand-new, first-time campaign donors), the incredible number of new grassroots campaign volunteers that have signed up in battleground states, the number of new voter registrations, and the fact that the campaign has taken social media (especially TikTok) by storm, all combine to make me think that the campaign has not even come close to reaching its peak or its upside.

On the other hand, the Trump campaign is old, angry, bitter, vengeance-driven, and tried- and has probably hit its ceiling. The fact that such a substantial percentage of Republican voters continued to turn out to cast anti-Trump votes in the GOP primary even long after Nikki Haley had surrendered, tells me that there is a not-insignificant number of Republicans who may just sit the presidential ballot out (and, of course, perhaps a few will even vote for Harris).

This is definitely going to be a tense, closely-contested, hard-fought election. No doubt about it. There is a very, very, very real chance that Trump could win it. But I don't think he will. Judging strictly by the aforementioned fundraising numbers, volunteer sign-ups, GOTV efforts, and new voter registrations, I think we are going to see a renewed and energized wave of Democratic enthusiasm and turnout that we haven't seen since the 2008 election. And when Democrats are enthused and excited, they turn out, and when they turn out, they win.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
I hope the liberal media, in an attempt to appear unbiased, doesn't start picking nits with respect to Harris, yet give Trump a free pass to pretty much do and say whatever he wants.
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Agree. Like if Harris answers one question poorly or has a misstep, equating that to a half hour of racist comments directed at black journalists isnt the same thing.
 
CFordUNC said:
While I do agree that the initial sugar high of the Harris nomination will subside, and while I fully believe that there will be ebbs and flows and good days and bad days for the Harris campaign, I think that the organic, grassroots momentum that the campaign has, has legitimate bonafide sustainable staying power. The jaw-dropping amount of money that they've raised (much of it from brand-new, first-time campaign donors), the incredible number of new grassroots campaign volunteers that have signed up in battleground states, the number of new voter registrations, and the fact that the campaign has taken social media (especially TikTok) by storm, all combine to make me think that the campaign has not even come close to reaching its peak or its upside.

On the other hand, the Trump campaign is old, angry, bitter, vengeance-driven, and tried- and has probably hit its ceiling. The fact that such a substantial percentage of Republican voters continued to turn out to cast anti-Trump votes in the GOP primary even long after Nikki Haley had surrendered, tells me that there is a not-insignificant number of Republicans who may just sit the presidential ballot out (and, of course, perhaps a few will even vote for Harris).

This is definitely going to be a tense, closely-contested, hard-fought election. No doubt about it. There is a very, very, very real chance that Trump could win it. But I don't think he will. Judging strictly by the aforementioned fundraising numbers, volunteer sign-ups, GOTV efforts, and new voter registrations, I think we are going to see a renewed and energized wave of Democratic enthusiasm and turnout that we haven't seen since the 2008 election. And when Democrats are enthused and excited, they turn out, and when they turn out, they win.
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As the PSA guys said recently, even if weird doesn’t have staying power, boring and stale probably do. Trump’s just tedious at the point. Nothing new, nothing interesting. Just the same old boring, tired, self-indulgent litany of grievances. Ain’t nobody got time for that.
 
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