While I do agree that the initial sugar high of the Harris nomination will subside, and while I fully believe that there will be ebbs and flows and good days and bad days for the Harris campaign, I think that the organic, grassroots momentum that the campaign has, has legitimate bonafide sustainable staying power. The jaw-dropping amount of money that they've raised (much of it from brand-new, first-time campaign donors), the incredible number of new grassroots campaign volunteers that have signed up in battleground states, the number of new voter registrations, and the fact that the campaign has taken social media (especially TikTok) by storm, all combine to make me think that the campaign has not even come close to reaching its peak or its upside.
On the other hand, the Trump campaign is old, angry, bitter, vengeance-driven, and tried- and has probably hit its ceiling. The fact that such a substantial percentage of Republican voters continued to turn out to cast anti-Trump votes in the GOP primary even long after Nikki Haley had surrendered, tells me that there is a not-insignificant number of Republicans who may just sit the presidential ballot out (and, of course, perhaps a few will even vote for Harris).
This is definitely going to be a tense, closely-contested, hard-fought election. No doubt about it. There is a very, very, very real chance that Trump could win it. But I don't think he will. Judging strictly by the aforementioned fundraising numbers, volunteer sign-ups, GOTV efforts, and new voter registrations, I think we are going to see a renewed and energized wave of Democratic enthusiasm and turnout that we haven't seen since the 2008 election. And when Democrats are enthused and excited, they turn out, and when they turn out, they win.
