Trump is going to get slaughtered in Mecklenburg, the Triangle, and Guilford/Forsyth. He will largely dominate rural NC, with the exception of Northeastern NC with large black populations. First step is we need urban turnout to be better than rural turnout. Beyond that, where I'd be looking for bellwethers for which way NC is likely to lean are New Hanover County (slight Dem margin last election, after going roughly 50/45 for Trump in 2016), Cumberland County (60/40 in Biden's favor last election, which was bluer than in 2016) and the red-leaning Charlotte suburbs (not sure how to measure precisely but probably somewhere around 60/40 in Trump's favor in 2020). If Kamala can maintain or grow margins in New Hanover and Cumberland, while winning over white women in those Charlotte suburbs, she's going to be in great shape. But if any of those counties trend redder than in 2020, it's a bad sign for Kamala.