2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

[dukeofhoops]

Cabarrus is one to watch. It's the next county in the state to turn blue IMO.
Will be interested to see Alamance too - it's changing with the explosion of growth in Mebane and Elon areas starting to change the deep red northern and southern parts.

It's a long shot but will be interested to see what happens in Union right next to Mecklenburg. Maybe it becomes more purple as I see more Harris signs than I've seen in the past for Dem candidates.

 

[rodoheel]

As is Ron DeSantis’s, as is JD Vance’s.

Too early to say on Vance IMO. He still has the backing of the Thiel/Musk crypto/tech types (really their only prominent toadie now that Blake Masters crashed and burned). Whether Trump wins or loses, I think you can expect them to push him hard as the Republican candidate in 2028, unless and until someone else they think they can control emerges. And they have a loooooooot of money and influence, and a means to wield it over the young online men who are now central to GOP political strategy.

 

[hedge]

Trump is going to get slaughtered in Mecklenburg, the Triangle, and Guilford/Forsyth. He will largely dominate rural NC, with the exception of Northeastern NC with large black populations.

I'm confident Wilson County will go for Kamala...

 

[aGDevil2k]

It's a long shot but will be interested to see what happens in Union right next to Mecklenburg. Maybe it becomes more purple as I see more Harris signs than I've seen in the past for Dem candidates.

Yeah if Union starts to not be as red, that's gotta be a massive warning shot to the GOP

 

[Zoo_View]

I was just driving from Winston-Salem back to Greensboro and they had all of the westbound lanes of I40 shut down on the west side of Greensboro (near the airport) with a bunch of police, highway patrol, etc rolling through at intervals. I assume it was cleared for someone's motorcade but can't figure out whose. Trump's only NC stop today is Raleigh so no reason he should have been near the Greensboro airport. Kamala isn't here today. Walz was in Gastonia/Charlotte yesterday but don't think he was going anywhere else in NC today. Not sure where Vance is; maybe him? Just not sure would be either be going to the Greensboro airport - or maybe somewhere further west of Greensboro (Winston? Asheville?) - that would have merited a miles-long complete clearing of 40.

The First Lady

She was in the Triad this morning, IIRC.

Headed for Carrboro/Durham in the afternoon.

 

[Zoo_View]

Too early to say on Vance IMO. He still has the backing of the Thiel/Musk crypto/tech types (really their only prominent toadie now that Blake Masters crashed and burned). Whether Trump wins or loses, I think you can expect them to push him hard as the Republican candidate in 2028, unless and until someone else they think they can control emerges. And they have a loooooooot of money and influence, and a means to wield it over the young online men who are now central to GOP political strategy.

Vance is such a limp noodle, he’s going to be a bigger waste of $$$$$ in terms of a presidential campaign than Ron DeSantis.

 

[rodoheel]

It's a long shot but will be interested to see what happens in Union right next to Mecklenburg. Maybe it becomes more purple as I see more Harris signs than I've seen in the past for Dem candidates.

Yeah Union, Gaston, and Cabarrus are the three Charlotte-adjacent counties to watch IMO. About 295k votes cast there in 2016, 365k votes cast there in 2020, and could conceivably exceed 450k there this year. If Kamala can improve Biden's performance by 5%+ in all three (35% in Gaston, 44% in Cabarrus, 37% in Union) that could be something like 25k+ additional votes in places where Trump desperately needs to offset the Dem urban majorities. He can't offset what will probably be something like a 700k+ deficit in the Triangle, Triad, and Mecklenburg with rural counties alone.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Trump talking about his beautiful white skin was a choice....trying to stop the damage with Black and Latino voters in the last week, he says his beautiful white skin like 5 times

 

[rodoheel]

Vance is such a limp noodle, he’s going to be a bigger waste of $$$$$ in terms of a presidential campaign than Ron DeSantis.

You may well be right. And to be clear, I'm not predicting he will be a presidential nominee one day, I'm just not as comfortable writing him off as I am DeSantis or Haley. In particular, I'm not ready to write him off when we don't know how this election went. Wet noodle or not, if Trump wins, he's almost certainly going to be the presumptive candidate in 2028, unless public opinion turns sharply against the Trump admin (which is very possible).

 

[lightbluenc]

Yeah Union, Gaston, and Cabarrus are the three Charlotte-adjacent counties to watch IMO. About 295k votes cast there in 2016, 365k votes cast there in 2020, and could conceivably exceed 450k there this year. If Kamala can improve Biden's performance by 5%+ in all three (35% in Gaston, 44% in Cabarrus, 37% in Union) that could be something like 25k+ additional votes in places where Trump desperately needs to offset the Dem urban majorities. He can't offset what will probably be something like a 700k+ deficit in the Triangle, Triad, and Mecklenburg with rural counties alone.

This is my hope. Maybe she can just do 1-3% better in rural or suburban areas. Maybe not win, but just cut into the margins.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Yeah Union, Gaston, and Cabarrus are the three Charlotte-adjacent counties to watch IMO. About 295k votes cast there in 2016, 365k votes cast there in 2020, and could conceivably exceed 450k there this year. If Kamala can improve Biden's performance by 5%+ in all three (35% in Gaston, 44% in Cabarrus, 37% in Union) that could be something like 25k+ additional votes in places where Trump desperately needs to offset the Dem urban majorities. He can't offset what will probably be something like a 700k+ deficit in the Triangle, Triad, and Mecklenburg with rural counties alone.

The other one is Johnston County. So long ruby red, it's been growing more than any other triangle county. What used to be rural even 8 years ago is now PACKED with subdivisions and apartments.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Yeah Union, Gaston, and Cabarrus are the three Charlotte-adjacent counties to watch IMO. About 295k votes cast there in 2016, 365k votes cast there in 2020, and could conceivably exceed 450k there this year. If Kamala can improve Biden's performance by 5%+ in all three (35% in Gaston, 44% in Cabarrus, 37% in Union) that could be something like 25k+ additional votes in places where Trump desperately needs to offset the Dem urban majorities. He can't offset what will probably be something like a 700k+ deficit in the Triangle, Triad, and Mecklenburg with rural counties alone.

That's really what has allowed Democrats to finally break through in Georgia. For decades the suburban counties around Atlanta voted Republican, and so it was a reliably red state most of the time. But over the past decade or so those suburban counties have turned blue, and that, combined with the heavy Democratic vote in Atlanta and other larger Georgia cities - Savannah, Columbus, Macon, etc. - has made Democrats competitive to the point that they now can actually win the state in at least some election years.

For Democrats to finally break through and win NC that same process has to happen here - some of these suburban counties around Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham and the Piedmont Triad need to become more blue - not necessarily have a Democratic majority, but at least move from voting 60 to 70 percent Republican to 55 percent Republican. That would make a huge difference in terms of Democrats winning the state.

 

[rodoheel]

The other one is Johnston County. So long ruby red, it's been growing more than any other triangle county. What used to be rural even 8 years ago is now PACKED with subdivisions and apartments.

I'm less familiar with some of those outlying Triangle suburbs. That sounds like a good one to watch too. Biden did about 2% better there in 2020 than Hillary did in 2016.

 

[dukeofhoops]

That's really what has allowed Democrats to finally break through in Georgia. For decades the suburban counties around Atlanta voted Republican, and so it was a reliably red state most of the time. But over the past decade or so those suburban counties have turned blue, and that, combined with the heavy Democratic vote in Atlanta and other larger Georgia cities - Savannah, Columbus, Macon, etc. - has made Democrats competitive to the point that they now can actually win the state in at least some election years.

For Democrats to finally break through and win NC that same process has to happen here - some of these suburban counties around Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham and the Piedmont Triad need to become more blue - not necessarily have a Democratic majority, but at least move from voting 60 to 70 percent Republican to 55 percent Republican. That would make a huge difference in terms of Democrats winning the state.

Union has been been exploding in population it feels like the last few years with all the housing developments and now apartment complexes sprouting up.

 

[4thgenheel]

That rant sounds like a rant from someone who is young and doesn't yet understand these things.

spoken from a place of privilege.

lots of people aren't straight, white males and cannot in good conscience maintain relationships with or associate with people who actively harm them.

minorities and members of the lgbtq+ community are perfectly justified in cutting off contact with hard right wingers and it has nothing to do with youthfulness or a lack or understanding.

we're talking about massive chasms between viewpoints on fundamental human rights and dignity, not disagreements on tax policy or safety nets.

 

[grimes70]

Carter-Finley and the RBC Center have enough trouble filling up to watch the usual losers who play there

Lenovo Ctr home to Hurricanes havee been sellingnout or close fir a couple years.

Now those other yahoos who call it home are a whole itger story.

 

[SnoopRob]

spoken from a place of privilege.

lots of people aren't straight, white males and cannot in good conscience maintain relationships with or associate with people who actively harm them.

minorities and members of the lgbtq+ community are perfectly justified in cutting off contact with hard right wingers and it has nothing to do with youthfulness or a lack or understanding.

we're talking about massive chasms between viewpoints on fundamental human rights and dignity, not disagreements on tax policy or safety nets.

I don't think anyone is suggesting folks should maintain relationships which actively harm them.

I think what Sooner is talking about is the idea that Dem voters who have MAGA relatives should be able to convince their relatives to not be MAGA. There's simply no way to do this that we're aware (and we've certainly tried) and the only other option is for many to blow up all of their relationships with family by being the obnoxious uncle that can't talk about anything other than politics.

I've mentioned on the thread on here before about personal relationships affected by MAGA that my mom and I don't discuss politics as it is likely the only way for us to maintain a relationship. It's not because I haven't tried to discuss politics with her, but those discussions inevitably end with some combination of her crying, screaming, or stomping off in a huff & us not speaking for some period of time. If I were to repeatedly try to discuss politics with her to attempt change her mind, the result wouldn't be that she'd actually make any changes to her political views, it would be that she and I wouldn't speak anymore & she'd then blame liberals for costing her a relationship with her son.

My mom has some loose relationships with racial/ethnic minorities and we have an LGBTQ+ relative in our family. She is kind to those folks in her day to day interactions...but she also fully believes that, as groups, those folks should be second-class citizens with less rights than she enjoys. And if you made her choose between those beliefs and her friends/family members, she'd choose her beliefs and see herself as being discriminated against for her beliefs. And there's nothing that any of us can really do to change her mind about that.

 

[1moretimeagain]

 

[nycfan]

Trump is going to get slaughtered in Mecklenburg, the Triangle, and Guilford/Forsyth. He will largely dominate rural NC, with the exception of Northeastern NC with large black populations. First step is we need urban turnout to be better than rural turnout. Beyond that, where I'd be looking for bellwethers for which way NC is likely to lean are New Hanover County (slight Dem margin last election, after going roughly 50/45 for Trump in 2016), Cumberland County (60/40 in Biden's favor last election, which was bluer than in 2016) and the red-leaning Charlotte suburbs (not sure how to measure precisely but probably somewhere around 60/40 in Trump's favor in 2020). If Kamala can maintain or grow margins in New Hanover and Cumberland, while winning over white women in those Charlotte suburbs, she's going to be in great shape. But if any of those counties trend redder than in 2020, it's a bad sign for Kamala.

We need better turnout tomorrow than we’ve seen from Mecklenburg in early voting, though. At 54.5% early voting turnout, Mecklenburg is behind the state 57% rate so far.

 

[finesse]

I'm up on the tightwire
One side's ice and one is fire
It's a circus game with you and me
I'm up on the tightrope
One side's hate and one is hope
But the top hat on my head is all you see