2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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I think Kennedy dropping out and endorsing Trump does nothing. I'll be shocked if it changes anything.

Harris will win with over 300 electoral votes. I think the map will look very similar to 2020 in the end. Maybe Trump flips Georgia back and possibly Arizona, but that will be about it.
 
EhringhausSouth said:
I think Kennedy dropping out and endorsing Trump does nothing. I'll be shocked if it changes anything.

Harris will win with over 300 electoral votes. I think the map will look very similar to 2020 in the end. Maybe Trump flips Georgia back and possibly Arizona, but that will be about it.
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With the Arizona Senate and abortion races, I think it's blue
 
What a way for the once-mighty and celebrated Kennedy family political dynasty to end - endorsing a right-wing Republican who may very well be the worst POTUS in American history. Both his father and Uncle Jack are probably spinning in their graves at Arlington right now. Cocaine is a helluva drug.
 
Calheel said:
Trump has evened it up in the betting markets in the last few days and this is the only possible reason why.

That said, I can’t imagine a Kennedy endorsement actually helps Trump in any material way.
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Why would Kennedy move the betting markets?
 
Its not like this is a mystery to pollsters. If you look on 538 many polls are duplicated - one with all potential candidates and one with just Harris and Trump. The removal of superfluous candidates doesn't dramatically swing the race towards Trump.
 
Milk and Cookies said:
Its not like this is a mystery to pollsters. If you look on 538 many polls are duplicated - one with all potential candidates and one with just Harris and Trump. The removal of superfluous candidates doesn't dramatically swing the race towards Trump.
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Yeah, but it's a little tricky. A poll that is two candidate or multi-candidate is that way for every respondent.

It's possible, though, that an asymmetry develops. Assume half of RFK supporters are otherwise for Harris and for Trump. If Trump's half defects to Trump because of an endorsement, whereas Harris' half stays independent (e.g. Stein or West) and/or doesn't vote, then it could be an issue.
 
RFK may be the best example in recent memory of a candidate who does better the less he’s known. If this announcement causes more people to learn actual information about him, it will be a net negative for both RFK and Trump.
 
Calheel said:
Because betting markets are not inherently rational. Can you think of any other reason Trump would have closed the gap on Kamala in the betting markets in the last few days?
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I believe that most polls have shown for awhile that RFK, Jr. is drawing more votes from Trump than Biden or Harris, and Trump has denounced RFK, Jr. several times in the past few months. If he drops out I don't think it hurts Harris at all or will affect the race all that much. I get the feeling that a great many people in the media - including the so-called "mainstream news media" - want Trump to either win (because he's been great for their ratings and website hits and subscriptions for the past nine years), or for the race to at least be really close with lots of controversy - again because of ratings and website hits. So anything that helps Trump is played up in the media, even if, as in this case, it's likely not going to make any difference one way or another.
 
Calheel said:
Because betting markets are not inherently rational. Can you think of any other reason Trump would have closed the gap on Kamala in the betting markets in the last few days?
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Sure. For one thing, betting volume for politics is far, far lower than for things like NFL games, so relatively small bets, or a single large bet, can cause the houses to move the line to even things out. For another, to the extent there are rational people betting on the election, Kamala moved so high so fast that it created a somewhat irrational line for a bit. Smart gamblers are always looking to take advantage of rapid line movements, especially in contests that are almost guaranteed to be close at the end. And third, as noted above, I do think Trump supporters are more likely to irrationally put their money on the election than others. That can move the line a bit in his direction, especially given the relatively low volume.
 
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