Yeah I still think the ONLY reason anyone would vote Kennedy was that they were anti Trump and anti Biden. I guess maybe some people who anti vax is their main issue in life, but I don't see anything else.
With the Arizona Senate and abortion races, I think it's blue
and MDMA and herion and weed and acid
sooo worm brains, dead bear hoax’s, and couch fuckers to elevate a felon?
Why would Kennedy move the betting markets?
Maybe RFK voters now go to Trump? Gives him some number of votes he'd not have gotten. But how many?
will that offset making the ticket more weird for the hesitant Trump/Harris voter?
Because betting markets are not inherently rational. Can you think of any other reason Trump would have closed the gap on Kamala in the betting markets in the last few days?
Yeah, but it's a little tricky. A poll that is two candidate or multi-candidate is that way for every respondent.
I believe that most polls have shown for awhile that RFK, Jr. is drawing more votes from Trump than Biden or Harris, and Trump has denounced RFK, Jr. several times in the past few months. If he drops out I don't think it hurts Harris at all or will affect the race all that much. I get the feeling that a great many people in the media - including the so-called "mainstream news media" - want Trump to either win (because he's been great for their ratings and website hits and subscriptions for the past nine years), or for the race to at least be really close with lots of controversy - again because of ratings and website hits. So anything that helps Trump is played up in the media, even if, as in this case, it's likely not going to make any difference one way or another.
Sure. For one thing, betting volume for politics is far, far lower than for things like NFL games, so relatively small bets, or a single large bet, can cause the houses to move the line to even things out. For another, to the extent there are rational people betting on the election, Kamala moved so high so fast that it created a somewhat irrational line for a bit. Smart gamblers are always looking to take advantage of rapid line movements, especially in contests that are almost guaranteed to be close at the end. And third, as noted above, I do think Trump supporters are more likely to irrationally put their money on the election than others. That can move the line a bit in his direction, especially given the relatively low volume.
