2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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JCTarheel82 said:
JMO but I would prefer someone who uses that kind of language be summarily banned as it speaks to their character and provides insight into their probable future contributions to this message board community.
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Not excusing the language, but someone who is a bit older (60's and above) may not realize that certain words are no longer acceptable. Give them a chance and perhaps they learn something.
 
HeelingAg said:
I think you offer warning, and ban with repeat language, regardless of space between. There’s still a 1:100 chance someone could drop a word like that without a true sense of its inappropriateness. Just a couple of years ago, a nurse casually dropped the r-word in front of me and was genuinely shocked and apologetic when I explained its offensiveness, particularly given my time working in special education.
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Understand what you're saying and I took that into account before stating my position. I have a special needs child so my tolerance for that language is very low.
 
Calheel said:
Of course there is a multiplier effect with white voting patterns given how many more white people vote than other races. But you've got to pick up a lot of white suburban moms in Philadelphia if your black margins are dropping by 10%. And those voting patterns also tend to hold pretty steady from election to election.

It would be surprising indeed if Kamala were to lose 10% margins with black voters and gain 2% with white voters. That would be one hell of a gender gap if it came to fruition.
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But again, if that's what the poll is saying, it's clearly possible. These aren't different polls showing increased minority support for Trump with Kamala winning. The polls are showing that Kamala is in fact doing well enough with other constituencies to offset that loss.

One thing to add, of course, is that a lot depends on where Kamala is losing black support. I don't know if the state level polls ever have enough respondents to measure the black vote with any reasonable margin of error, but it's entirely possible that black people are finding it easier to stray from the Dems when their votes don't really matter. You know, like (mostly white) third party voters. So if Trump is gaining among Latinos in California or black Nashvillians, it doesn't matter to the election.

About 40% of Philly voters are black. There were about 750K Philly ballots cast in 2020, and Biden won about 81% of them. I don't know how Biden did among black Philadelphians, but let's say it's 90% and Kamala is only going to get 80%. That's a shift of 4% of 750K, or about 30,000 votes -- or about 40% of Biden's statewide margin of victory. It sounds like a lot, but in a state of 7M voters, it's just not that big of an effect. It takes a 1% movement or so in the white female vote in the state to make up for that.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Why does this thread say 20 days to election day????
@nycfan - your math isn't mathin :)
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I had been using approach that days + any hours left meant 21 days u til Election Day and others didn’t like that approach, so using this election clock instead now.
 
Paine said:
First canvasser at my door here in Raleigh was from the Trump team. I told the dude right off that I’m voting for Kamala, but I guess because I’m a white dude with a country accent he thought I could be convinced.

He went hard on talking about killing babies and cutting off genitals. I was more than happy to have him waste his time talking to me. He presented no arguments as to why I should vote for Trump other than Dems are killing babies and cutting off kids’ genitals.
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I’d have told him I was voting for Harris with the hope that she would cut his balls off.
 
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