Five possible explanations for the increases in support, particularly among young men.
www.nytimes.com
Before going on, an important thing to keep in mind: While Mr. Trump is doing far better than prior Republicans, he is still far from winning a majority of the Black or Hispanic vote. As a consequence, many of the factors helping Mr. Trump apply only to a minority of Black and Hispanic voters. Even so, Democrats have typically won these groups by such wide margins that even modest support by Black or Hispanic voters can lay the groundwork for politically significant gains.
1. They don’t mind the dog whistles
To liberals, Mr. Trump’s views on race, crime and immigration are little more than racist
dog whistles.
Many Black and Hispanic voters feel similarly, but a surprising number hear those dog whistles and like what they’re hearing.
- Around 40 percent of Black voters and 43 percent of Hispanic voters say they support building a wall along the Southern border. Similarly, 45 percent of Hispanic voters and 41 percent of Black voters say they support deporting undocumented immigrants.
- Half of Hispanic voters and nearly half — 47 percent — of Black voters say that crime in big cities is a major problem that’s gotten out of control. That’s essentially the same as the share of white voters (50 percent) who say the same.
The support for Mr. Trump’s views extends beyond issues related to race and immigration. A majority of Black and Hispanic voters seem to sympathize with his “America First” foreign policy, saying that America ought to pay less attention to problems overseas and concentrate on problems at home. Previous Times/Siena surveys have found that a substantial share of Black and Hispanic voters agree with Mr. Trump on trade as well.
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2. They’re not offended; they might even be entertained
Of course, Mr. Trump hasn’t just used dog whistles in his campaigns. Sometimes, he’s used a bullhorn.
During his time in national politics, he has offended millions of Black and Hispanic voters, including by recently saying that Haitian refugees
eat cats and dogs and that undocumented immigrants are “
poisoning the blood of our country.”
But a sizable minority of Black and Hispanic voters aren’t necessarily so offended.
Overall, 20 percent of Black voters say that those offended by Mr. Trump take him too seriously, while 78 percent agree people have good reason to be offended.
Similarly, 40 percent of Hispanic voters say people offended by Mr. Trump take his words too seriously, while 55 percent say there’s good reason to be offended. And importantly, only about one-third of Hispanic voters say Mr. Trump is talking about
them when he’s talking about problems with immigration.
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3. It’s the economy, stupid
It’s obvious, and yet it still doesn't get enough attention.
Many people assume that Democrats win Black and Hispanic voters simply because of the party’s commitment to advancing racial equality, but the role of economic self-interest should not be underestimated. Democrats started winning Black and Hispanic voters in the 1930s, not in the 1960s, because Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal helped redefine the Democrats as the party of the working class, not just the party of the former Confederacy.
Just 20 percent of Hispanic voters and 26 percent of Black voters say the current economic conditions are good or excellent. More than half of both groups say they have “often” cut back on groceries over the last year because of the cost.
This is important for economically vulnerable voters — especially those who have previously voted for Democrats on the assumption that they represented their economic interests. Overall, the economy was the most-cited issue among Black and Hispanic voters when asked what would most decide their vote this November.
As a celebrity billionaire businessman, Mr. Trump has always had an advantage on this issue, whether against Mrs. Clinton or Mr. Biden. Now, Mr. Trump is running again at a time when voters are more dissatisfied with the economy than before, and when many look back on Mr. Trump’s presidency as a prosperous and peaceful time.
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4. The end of hope and change
Even beyond the poor state of the economy, there’s something deeper holding Democrats back: a sense that voting for them just won’t make much of a difference.
Of all the questions in the survey, perhaps the single worst one for Democrats was on the question of which party best “keeps its promises.” Just 63 percent of Black voters and 46 percent of Hispanic voters said “keeps its promises” describes the Democratic Party better than the Republicans.
Black and Hispanic voters don’t necessarily doubt Democratic intentions, but they are disappointed in the results. Democrats fared poorly on questions like whether the party can “fix the problems facing people like me,” even as they excelled on “understand the problems facing people like me.”
In the presidential race, few seem to be convinced that Ms. Harris will make a difference in their lives. Just 50 percent of Hispanic voters said Ms. Harris would do more to help them personally, while 37 percent said the same for Mr. Trump. Among Black voters, 73 percent said Ms. Harris would do more to help them personally, compared with 14 percent who said the same for Mr. Trump.
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5. For a new generation, Trump is ‘normal’
The Times/Siena polls suggest Mr. Trump has made his largest gains among young Black and Hispanic voters — especially young Black and Hispanic men.
Overall, he has a 55-38 lead among Hispanic men 45 or younger. Ms. Harris leads among Black men under 45, but only by 69-27. The results among 18-to-29-year-old Hispanic and Black men are even more striking, though the samples are small.
In contrast, Ms. Harris holds far more typical leads for a Democrat among younger women, with a 68-30 edge among Hispanic women under 45 and 87-6 among young Black women.
These young men came of age long after the civil rights movement that cemented nearly unanimous Democratic support among Black voters 60 years ago. The youngest were toddlers during the Obama ’08 campaign. They may not have a vivid memory of Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign. To them, Mr. Trump may be “normal” — a fixture of their lives to this point, naturally making it harder to depict him as a norm-defying “threat to democracy.”
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