2025 & 2026 Elections
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ZenMode
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I know the non-Republican options for New York mayor are pretty poor, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Elizabeth Warren's endorsement of Zorhan Mamdani is not going to help Democrats chances in 2026.
www.nytimes.com
Elizabeth Warren, Campaigning for Mamdani, Scorns Cuomo and Billionaires
Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic candidate for mayor of New York City, appeared with Senator Elizabeth Warren to highlight his plan for free universal child care.
Duke Mu
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That didn't happen by accident. In 1980 Columbia, SC and Raleigh were about the same size. Greensboro was about 100,000. Charleston, SC had a metro area of 400,000 in 1980.
One state invested in
1. Highway infrastructure
2. Education (Including higher education)
3. Research & Development
4. Emphasized economic development and growth
And the other put mustard in their barbecue sauce!
Duke Mu
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Except no one outside FNC or Newsmax hangs on every word uttered by Sen. Warren.I know the non-Republican options for New York mayor are pretty poor, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Elizabeth Warren's endorsement of Zorhan Mamdani is not going to help Democrats chances in 2026.
Elizabeth Warren, Campaigning for Mamdani, Scorns Cuomo and Billionaires
Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic candidate for mayor of New York City, appeared with Senator Elizabeth Warren to highlight his plan for free universal child care.
People care that they are losing health care, the job market is tightening, the rent is too damn high, and there are no summer programs and school lunch for their kids.
ZenMode
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The exit and post election polling seemed to show that people are becoming aware of details like this, and that it mattered to them.
I suspect things like this will also be on the radar of voters. Dems would be well served to stop with the Hitler/Holocaust stuff. It doesn't seem to work - very "boy who cried wolf".
Texas state Democrat apologizes for comparing GOP redistricting plan to the Holocaust
Texas state Democrat apologizes for comparing GOP redistricting plan to the Holocaust
Democratic Texas State Rep. Jolanda Jones invoked the Holocaust while discussing state Democrats like herself fleeing the state to avoid a vote on redistricting.
akillesheel
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trump 2.0 has already done more damage to this country's foundation and future than 1.0 did in his entire term. it was possible to sell voters in 2020 that normalcy was an aspirational thing to return to and that we could just treat trump as an aberration. i can't really see the same being true in 2028 with the lasting damage that he's already done. plus, covid inspired unprecedented voter turnout not just because it was a public health emergency, but because of how strongly absentee/from home voting was advertised and encouraged - can't bank on that again.
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Totally agree. As much as I can’t stand the policies of the Trump administration, I can’t get too worked up about what may happen in the midterms next year or in 2028 because it will quite simply come down to whether or not enough people care that their health and economic bottom lines – or that of their loved ones – have been so significantly diminished directly by the policies of the Trump administration, that they turn out in overwhelming numbers to vote Republicans out of office.
If people do that, Democrats will win. If people don’t, Republicans will continue their skull fucking of the upper middle, middle, and lower classes. Pretty much as simple as that, IMO.
If people do that, Democrats will win. If people don’t, Republicans will continue their skull fucking of the upper middle, middle, and lower classes. Pretty much as simple as that, IMO.
superrific
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I don't care what the polls say now, or what analysts think is going to happen.
I'm sticking with blue tsunami. I have good reasons for that projection (for one thing, it's historically the norm) and I'm sticking with it. I think it's a sounder basis for projection at this time than "oh, look, the polls about an election 18 months from now don't show Dems with a huge lead)"
I'm sticking with blue tsunami. I have good reasons for that projection (for one thing, it's historically the norm) and I'm sticking with it. I think it's a sounder basis for projection at this time than "oh, look, the polls about an election 18 months from now don't show Dems with a huge lead)"
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If the economy is bad, blue tsunami
If the economy is fine, probably about a stalemate, though Dems will be lucky to maintain their current levels in the Senate and House
Lucky? 2002 is the only off-year election in modern history in which the incumbent party did not lose seats. And there was that whole 9/11 thing that complicated elections that year.
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I hear you on the historical factor. I just think we're in a different election paradigm now than we were before; I think stuff that happened 10, 12, 14 years ago is becoming irrelevant, and candidly I would rather assume the worst than the best. And when you look at the Senate map for Dems, you can understand the reason for pessimism.
Not talking Senate, which is largely irrelevant (except for Sup Ct nominations) if you have the House. Unless you have the presidency, one chamber is practically as good as two chambers.
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If the economy is fine, then it maybe a stalemate depending upon what constitutes a "fine economy " a year from now. I don't think this economy is on a trajectory to be a fine economy.
Inflation ?
Jobs and employment ?
Recession ?
No spike in inflation, no recession, no spike in job losses and unemployment = a decent chance GQPers will hold on to a House majority and the Senate in 2026
superrific
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Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
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The Senate doesn't have to be irrelevant. It has self-imposed its own irrelevancy through the modern version of the filibuster, among other things. And if Dems take the Senate back, they can hopefully unwind some of those things. (Will they? I'm skeptical, but it's at least possible.)
If you have majorities in the Senate and the House, you can, at the very least, force the President to publicly veto bills and pay the political cost for doing so. That is, if you reform the filibuster and other Senate rules sufficiently that a simple majority can actually pass substantive bills, as the Founders intended.
Given the lack of truly competitive House seats nationwide, I doubt we see a blue tsunami in congressional races.
In the Senate, Democrats have incumbents running in Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. All look likely Democratic holds EXCEPT Georgia; which at best is a toss-up for the Democrats. In Jon Ossoff’s case and favor, he’s an aggressive, good campaigner who will have a large war chest.
Democratic incumbents are retiring in Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The first two are likely holds. In New Hampshire, it looks like all Granite State Democrats are rallying behind 1st District Congressman Chris Pappas. It also appears that a slew of Republicans want a shot at it; including former US Senator Scott Brown, who was elected in Massachusetts. I’d guess NH leans Democratic. Michigan has to be labeled a toss-up.
Republican incumbents are running in AK, ID, MT, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, IA, AR, LA, MS, FL, SC, TN, WV, OH, and ME. Anyone see a likely Democratic win in those states? I don’t.
Roy Cooper might win North Carolina. It’ll be tight. The Republicans hold Kentucky and Alabama.
So, if the Democrats hold ALL of their incumbent seats (that’s a big if) and they win NC and ME, the Senate flips. If Georgia or Michigan or NH goes red, the Democrats aren’t winning the Senate…
In the Senate, Democrats have incumbents running in Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. All look likely Democratic holds EXCEPT Georgia; which at best is a toss-up for the Democrats. In Jon Ossoff’s case and favor, he’s an aggressive, good campaigner who will have a large war chest.
Democratic incumbents are retiring in Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The first two are likely holds. In New Hampshire, it looks like all Granite State Democrats are rallying behind 1st District Congressman Chris Pappas. It also appears that a slew of Republicans want a shot at it; including former US Senator Scott Brown, who was elected in Massachusetts. I’d guess NH leans Democratic. Michigan has to be labeled a toss-up.
Republican incumbents are running in AK, ID, MT, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, IA, AR, LA, MS, FL, SC, TN, WV, OH, and ME. Anyone see a likely Democratic win in those states? I don’t.
- Maine - people keep saying Susan Collins is vulnerable. I’ll believe it when I see it. At best, Maine is a toss-up.
- Nebraska - Maybe Independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska has a longshot at it. No Democrat is running.
- Iowa - Joni Ernst won in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote.
- Kansas - Roger Marshall won his first term with 53.2%. The Democrats do occupy the Governor and Lt. Governor offices. Both of those seats are having elections in 2026.
- I don’t see a Democrat challenging in any other incumbent-held seat.
Roy Cooper might win North Carolina. It’ll be tight. The Republicans hold Kentucky and Alabama.
So, if the Democrats hold ALL of their incumbent seats (that’s a big if) and they win NC and ME, the Senate flips. If Georgia or Michigan or NH goes red, the Democrats aren’t winning the Senate…
Not that big of a deal. I suspect the conservatives will be smart enough to retire next year and not die in year 3 or 4 like Ginsburg.
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Mentioning Chemtrails in public used to be a sign of potentially serious mental illness — the kind of thing coming up at local county commission meetings where everyone else sat quietly waiting for the buzzer on the mike time and creating a neutral zone around the speaker, maybe with the cop that night scooting over to that side of the room just in case, if they returned to their seat instead of leaving.
superrific
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This is not just not consistent with everything we know about mid terms. Mid terms are usually a referendum on the president. You have seen Trump's approval and it's going to get worse. In addition, the reason Dems overperformed in 22 is that we have the high turnout voters.
Cooper will really have to fuck up to lose NC and I doubt it's all that close. I don't know Maine politics to a fine detail, but if Maine is really in the recession that people report, Collins will get the boot. That's just how American politics works.
You're assuming that this environment is going to be neutral, for some reason. Think 2018 for a better comparison. Except that we're not going to lose Florida senate because we've lost it, and we will win in NC.
I think Ohio is up for a special election. Hopefully Sherrod Brown hops in, and if so, the race will be very close.
superrific
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I say the following based on what I think are sensible predictions about the political environment. Remember, Trump is already super unpopular and it's only getting worse from here.
NC: Likely Dem.
ME: Strong lean Dem
MI: Likely Dem
MN Likely Dem
GA: Lean Dem
IA: Lean Pub
TX: Toss up if Paxton is the candidate
OH: don't know.