Biorhythms for Carolina @Virginia: Post-Game Discussion
- Thread starter donbosco
- Start date
- Replies: 545
- Views: 5K
- UNC Sports
donbosco
Legend of ZZL
- Messages
- 6,293
I'm always suspicious of top-end talent prognostications out of high school...and even to some degree, out of college.
FIRST TEAM*
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander — College: Kentucky — HS Ranking: Four-star recruit (ranked ~33rd nationally in his senior class)
Nikola Jokić — College: None (Serbian pro/overseas) — HS Ranking: N/A (not an American HS recruit)
Giannis Antetokounmpo — College: None (Greece, international) — HS Ranking: N/A
Jayson Tatum — College: Duke — HS Ranking: #11 nationally (2016 class, ESPN)
Donovan Mitchell — College: Louisville — HS Ranking: Unranked major national consensus (rose later)
SECOND TEAM
Jalen Brunson — College: Villanova — HS Ranking: 4-star recruit (top guards in his class)
Stephen Curry — College: Davidson — HS Ranking: 3-star recruit (not highly ranked nationally)
Anthony Edwards — College: Georgia — HS Ranking: #3 overall (2019 class)
LeBron James — College: None (entered NBA from St. Vincent–St. Mary HS) — HS Ranking: #1 nationally (2003)
Evan Mobley — College: USC — HS Ranking: #2 overall (2019 class)
THIRD TEAM
Cade Cunningham — College: Oklahoma State — HS Ranking: #1 overall (2020 class)
Tyrese Haliburton — College: Iowa State — HS Ranking: 3-star/under-the-radar recruit
James Harden — College: Arizona State — HS Ranking: 5-star recruit (2007 class)
Karl-Anthony Towns — College: Kentucky — HS Ranking: #1 overall (2014 class)
Jalen Williams — College: Santa Clara — HS Ranking: Top in Arizona (approx. #9 in state), not nationally top-ranked
#Doncic didn't play enough games to qualify.
Only one of those guys won an NCAA Championship (Brunson won two).
Bigs23
Inconceivable Member
- Messages
- 2,648
That's an outlier.
- Messages
- 554
dook and UNC both have 1 top 5 pick each. After that dook has 3 guys in the draft conversation while UNC has 1. Most sites I've seen put Ngongba clearly the next draft prospect, with Henri somewhere in between him and Evans/Sarr. I can't think of any players from either team in the draft convo... but Maliq Brown is probably closest after those 6.
- Messages
- 3,925
I thought Maliq would go last year
That guy reeks of a 15 year contributer to me
Maybe I am just jealous of his hair?
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
- Messages
- 11,758
All right. I didn't mean to be taken so literally. I was articulating a strong position so I could make my "gauge symmetry" joke work, and that was a bit aimed at one person in particular. I don't think those two positions are completely 100% indistinguishable.
I would say that there's still some truth to my statement even if it was too broad. After the game, in these discussions, the dynamic is always weird. It feels bad to say, "no, we're not good, we absolutely suck, that's why we need a new coach" (not saying you've said that, it's just a stylized example). It's not the ordinary way to think of your team. And then you start arguing that more and more, and pretty soon most of your posts become about how much the team sucks and it sucked in the past and it's going to suck in the future. That's the type of dynamic I'm noticing. It's not your fault; it's a structural phenomenon that comes from the nature of the discussion. I'm merely pointing it out.
One reason that I like to be agnostic about the coach is this dynamic in particular. Either you end up defending your position to keep the coach by making overly optimistic claims about the future or whitewashing previous losses, or you end up being harsh about your own team or program. There is a middle ground but it's a narrow path over a chasm on both sides.
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
- Messages
- 11,758
That list is not at all representative. I was looking at a composite set of rankings on my phone, which isn't connected here and I don't care to find it again. It showed pretty much what NYCBlue said, and specifically:
Boozer #2 and Wilson #4. Then Evans in late lottery or mid first round, and then Ngon, HV and Dame Sarr in a cluster near the end of the first round. I see no real basis for saying that UNC has more high end talent, except possible a single outlier projection.
That said I'm not sure exactly how much weight to give to composites. It does feel a bit like each one of these rankings uses the other rankings as inputs, so we get an information cascade and the composite opinion doesn't reflect much more confidence than a single projection alone. But if we're going to be using amateur scouting lists for a draft 6 months away, they pretty much show what we'd all expect: more NBA talent on Duke.
That list is the most recent list published by On3. Duke’s talent has been dropping in the draft projections throughout the year and there is now at least one respected mock that has Duke with just one first rounder. So I wasn’t just talking out of my ass. None of us will know for sure until June.
Bigs23
Inconceivable Member
- Messages
- 2,648
I think most still root for UNC to win but get some joy from a loss because it confirms their anti-Hubert position.
Bigs23
Inconceivable Member
- Messages
- 2,648
Every other mock draft has atleast 2 dookies and most have 3 going in the 1st.
What makes on3 special?
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
- Messages
- 11,758
That seems to reflect well on the predictive power of the rankings. Take Jokic and Giannis out -- they simply aren't predicted. Tatum was to my knowledge a top 5 HS recruit, consensus. So out of 13 players, 7 are top 5 (or at least top 10) recruits. Maybe that doesn't sound like a lot, but remember the universe of non top 10 recruits is much, much larger than the universe of top-10 recruits. If you think about every evaluation as a prediction, what you're seeing is 7 players out of a group of maybe 100 being all-NBA players, and then 6 players out of a group of tens of thousands also making it. That's pretty complimentary for the rankings.
Also, sometimes players' ability changes in new contexts. Curry wasn't highly regarded because nobody knew that you could be an NBA superstar primarily on the basis of a three point shot that could be launched from anywhere. SGA wasn't as highly regarded perhaps because people didn't predict that pushing off with your off arm would become fully legal in the NBA and in fact be whistled as much as a defensive foul.
For one, it is the most recent.
It is certainly possible that Duke could end up with three first rounders this year, and UNC only one, but it is also possible that we end up with two and Duke only one. We will find out in June.
This Duke team lacks the high end talent of last year but makes up for it with more experience.
Bigs23
Inconceivable Member
- Messages
- 2,648
The others I saw were pretty recent.
In the aggregate dook is projected to have 3 1st rounders.
Once you get projected for the back half of the first round, there is a lot of variability. Evans and Ngonba could go in the first round, but they could also go in the second round — as could Veesar. The standard deviation is high at that point.
In any event, I’ll stick with my assertion that UNC gets two first rounders and Duke only one. We can revisit in June. It would be nice for UNC to finally have a better draft than Duke.
- Messages
- 5,495
I agree that it's a weird place to (genuinely) pull for the team to win while also having a negative perspective about the future of the program under the current HC. And it is a difficult balance to maintain.
Of course, the win-win for me is that I either get to celebrate Carolina victories or I get to bitch about the coaching.
- Messages
- 5,495
I don't get joy from our losses, largely more frustration that makes me want change even more.
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
- Messages
- 11,758
This is weak. There's no bright line between first and second round in terms of player ability or pro prospects. So you're drawing an artificial line AND relying on a data outlier -- which is what I would expect from Zen or the bumblebee but not you.
The obvious takeaway here is that Duke and UNC both have one top tier prospect. Boozer > Wilson right now but whatever, they are pretty close. Then there are four prospects grouped pretty tightly according to the mocks -- three are Dukies. So Duke has the best prospect and the most prospects. They definitely have the talent edge.
At the Cal game I spoke with a lot of UNC fans before and after the game. Obviously, they all wanted to see us win or they wouldn’t be there. Yet, there was a very strong anti-Hubert tenor amongst the fans - especially after the game.
Personally, I am on the fence with Hubert. I’d love him to succeed because he is my year and we knew a lot of the same people at UNC. And I hold out a flicker of hope that he could somehow turn around the ship before it hits the iceberg. But that flicker is very faint.
He's Not Here
Distinguished Member
- Messages
- 282
I don’t think it’s joy. It’s just the cognitive dissonance of fandom.
The fan in us wants to win - every game.
Meanwhile the rational side (assuming you don’t think Hubert is the guy) is that we should lose to get a new coach and get the train moving in the right direction again.
superrific
Master of the ZZLverse
- Messages
- 11,758
The best win-win is to bet against UNC when we are the favorites. Three possible outcomes: we win the game by the spread (and you're happy); we lose the game (and you gain some $$); and we win the game by less than the spread, in which case you make money and get happy.I agree that it's a weird place to (genuinely) pull for the team to win while also having a negative perspective about the future of the program under the current HC. And it is a difficult balance to maintain.
Of course, the win-win for me is that I either get to celebrate Carolina victories or I get to bitch about the coaching.
My ex-wife complained about this mentality (note: I never went through with it except on a limited basis, because back then I didn't know how to bet on sports and uninterested in spending even a few minutes figuring it out) and I explained it like this. Suppose I'm betting $50 per game. Forty games, maximum loss of $2000. That's if we win every game by the spread or more. It would also mean we were undefeated. So ask yourself: if, before the season starts, a djinni appeared and offered you a deal -- $2000 for UNC to have an undefeated season? Fuck yeah, I'd take that deal. In reality, even if UNC went undefeated, your actual loss would be much less, maybe $300-400