Economic News

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Recession or not, most agree that on present course = slower growth, rising inflation, rising unemployment. That is trouble for the markets, economy, cost of goods, and employment.

Under Biden, we were doing very well on all fronts, except inflation spiking to 9%, but that was way down and on it's way and almost to Fed target of 2.5%.

This is where Dems (or a feeble old poor communicator) screwed up. It was #1 issue at polls, cost of goods and perception of "terrible economy."
 
I learned a bit of a hard lesson this past November as it pertains to economic sentiment. I was so confident about how so many of the macroeconomic indicators showed that the economy was booming (unemployment at record lows, stock market at record highs, wage growth outpacing inflation, etc.) that I didn't allow myself to consider that the microeconomics for so many people would be the Dems' undoing. As I've shared previously on the board, I grew up pretty poor- SNAP, free lunch at school, etc.- but I've been fortunate to be blessed with economic prosperity now in my 30's. Over essentially the last decade since I graduated from UNC, I've gone from having to basically choose between putting gas in the gar to get to work at my first two jobs working $7.25/hour, or buying groceries. Now I don't even notice the total at the gas pump or at the grocery store checkout. I've gone from eating out at restaurants maybe two or three times per year growing up (always around birthdays) to eating out every day for lunch when I'm not on the road for work. I've gone from having a checking account that I used to overdraw, one that would routinely have single-digit dollars on the day before pay day, to having savings accounts and investment accounts with six-figures in them.

I say all of that to say that I am a bit ashamed that I had apparently forgotten how it is to live paycheck-to-paycheck with grim economic prospects. So when I was touting the historically low-unemployment rates, or the historically-high stock market, or the wage growth outpacing inflation- but forgetting that the economy simply still does not work well for far too many of our fellow Americans- I was definitely doing the Democratic Party for whom I was advocating a disservice. It's easy to feel like everything is great for everyone when you can pull up your healthy savings and investment accounts on your $1,000 smart phone on your way to drop $30 on a random weekday lunch like it's no big deal, but I definitely learned that I need to be more understanding- instead of dismissive of -the plight of so many folks who are hurting economically.
 
you're kidding. that's insane, lmao.
In the interest of complete honesty, that is not an exact quote, but they are more than setting up blaming Biden by talking it up that his so-called bad policies are carrying over into Trump's term and if a recession hits, that is the cause.
 
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In the interest of completely honesty, that is not an exact quote, but they are more than setting up blaming Biden by talking it up that his so-called bad policies are carrying over into Trump's term and if a recession hits, that is the cause.
Funny. To whatever extent sitting Presidents’ actions and policies have impacted the economy, I don’t know if there’s ever been a more direct and obvious link between a sitting President’s actions and policies and what is happening with the economy right now.
 

The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks​

Worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the AI trade are pressuring U.S. shares​


GIFT LONK 🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/...9d?st=inq7JE&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink


A new round of recession fears rattled markets Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1000 points and eroding Wall Street consensus that U.S. stocks would be among this year’s biggest winners.

Many investors had anticipated that American exceptionalism—the perceived advantages the U.S. has over other countries, such as its economic strength and technological innovations—would help drive another year of robust stock gains.

But worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the artificial-intelligence trade have taken some of the shine off that optimism. President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out a recession this year, setting off a fresh wave of declines in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 fell 3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 4.5%. Bank stocks slid, along with shares of smaller companies perceived to be sensitive to the economy. Bonds rallied.

“This is the first time we’ve had an administration pretty much say with a straight face… the objectives are going to cause pain,” said Shelby McFaddin, investment analyst at Motley Fool Asset Management.

While the U.S.’s strength is in question, other countries are ramping up efforts to revive their economies. China has unleashed more stimulus to meet its economic growth target. Germany announced a spending splurge on its military and infrastructure.

Markets were rattled after Trump’s tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico took effect, sparking swift retaliatory action. Stocks, bond yields and oil prices tumbled, with investors scrambling to assess the possible implications of a trade war on the U.S. economy. …”
 

The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks​

Worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the AI trade are pressuring U.S. shares​


GIFT LONK 🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/...9d?st=inq7JE&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink


A new round of recession fears rattled markets Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1000 points and eroding Wall Street consensus that U.S. stocks would be among this year’s biggest winners.

Many investors had anticipated that American exceptionalism—the perceived advantages the U.S. has over other countries, such as its economic strength and technological innovations—would help drive another year of robust stock gains.

But worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the artificial-intelligence trade have taken some of the shine off that optimism. President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out a recession this year, setting off a fresh wave of declines in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 fell 3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 4.5%. Bank stocks slid, along with shares of smaller companies perceived to be sensitive to the economy. Bonds rallied.

“This is the first time we’ve had an administration pretty much say with a straight face… the objectives are going to cause pain,” said Shelby McFaddin, investment analyst at Motley Fool Asset Management.

While the U.S.’s strength is in question, other countries are ramping up efforts to revive their economies. China has unleashed more stimulus to meet its economic growth target. Germany announced a spending splurge on its military and infrastructure.

Markets were rattled after Trump’s tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico took effect, sparking swift retaliatory action. Stocks, bond yields and oil prices tumbled, with investors scrambling to assess the possible implications of a trade war on the U.S. economy. …”
“… Investors had largely brushed off Trump’s inflammatory policy promises, including his pledge to levy aggressive tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, betting they were negotiation tools that wouldn’t be implemented.

Now, the expected ramifications of tariffs, which many investors fear could reignite inflation and break the economy’s resilient streak, has some worried that the case for American exceptionalism isn’t as sound as they expected. For many investors, the dizzying sequence of events is also a sign of the uncertainty that lies ahead.

… “The desire to believe in American exceptionalism is very strong,” said Matt Rowe, head of portfolio management at Nomura Capital Management. “The reality is that if we’re doing everything on our own, everything is going to be a lot more expensive.” …”
 
“… Natural-gas futures rose 2.1% Monday to end at $4.491 per million British thermal units, their highest close since prices were falling from the peaks reached in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and jolted power markets.

The heating and power-generation fuel is now 155% more expensive than a year ago and climbing sharply at a time of year when it usually declines.

The latest weather forecasts suggest the worst of winter is past and that gas demand for heating is in seasonal decline. Normally that would lead to lower gas prices.

But bearish supply-and-demand fundamentals are taking a back seat lately to trade tensions with Canada, which are driving prices higher, analysts and traders say.

By bidding up gas futures, traders are betting that domestic fuel will be substituted for more expensive—and potentially unavailable—supply from Canada.

Trump's proposed tariffs, which have been paused until next month, would add 10% to the cost of Canadian gas purchased in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday initiated a 25% retaliatory surcharge on electricity sent over the border and said he hasn't ruled out cutting off those exports.

The surcharge will affect roughly 1.5 million households and businesses in New York, Michigan and Minnesota, though it's unclear exactly how much of the added cost, and when, it will show up in U.S. utility bills. …”

 
Well, on the bright side, I reckon if the GOP can hold up their usual end of the bargain and get us one more good recession before 2032 during these peak wealth accumulation years, maybe that will be enough to get me to FI. Markets crashing during a GOP administration and subsequent recovery during the succeeding Democratic one is how every generation of early retirees has done it since the 1990s. Thank u 4 ur service President Trump!

*this is sarcasm*
 
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