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Don't get me wrong, I have benefited hugely from this period of growth (although if I invested more in stocks and less in comics, I'd be in a significantly better place financially). But, the implications behind why stocks are behaving the way they are... Yes, I know, part of it is smarter algorithms used by stockbrokers. And part of is that the rise of the crypto currency era is having some really odd reverberations on the stock market, but I can't help but feel like I am living through a giant ponzi scheme.
 
doctor_octopus said:
I mean, I don't know how it goes in Hungary. Do you put your 401k into the Hungarian markets? Can you trust Hungarian market data?
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I don't know, but I also don't know that it matters. The best thing to do with stocks is really to not overthink them too much, and just let the money ride (at least within the comfort of a portfolio). I've always argued that - should the stock market go flat to the degree that it destroys professional portfolios - it will be the least of our worries. At that point, everyone is fucked, least of all the people wealthy enough to invest.
 
sringwal said:
I don't know, but I also don't know that it matters. The best thing to do with stocks is really to not overthink them too much, and just let the money ride (at least within the comfort of a portfolio). I've always argued that - should the stock market go flat to the degree that it destroys professional portfolios - it will be the least of our worries. At that point, everyone is fucked, least of all the people wealthy enough to invest.
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Right - that's been the case as long as the American system has been more or less predictable. All those base understanding about decision makers, general monetary policy, etc. have since been thrown out the window, and have been broken in such a robust way to potentially affect how the entire world uses the US markets. That's my worry. I've never had to overthink before, because we all agreed that a working market based on growth, etc. was in our interest. Kinda like we used to all think vaccines were in our interest, and now we need to worry about effing MEASLES.
 
Huh? said:
I'd really like to see the survey data that backstops the claim that new jobs are predominately going to native born workers. My guess that manufacturing job gains in the past going to illegal workers (as opposed to foreign-born workers) is an assumption rather than backed by survey data.
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Trump has been making one version of this claim for a while, cherry-picking and conflating data:


www.pbs.org

Despite Trump's claims, data shows migrants aren’t taking jobs from Black or Hispanic people

Trump, who often uses anti-immigrant rhetoric, has referred during his campaign to immigrants he says are taking “Black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.” But government data show immigrant labor contributes to economic growth and provides promotional opportunities for native-born workers.
www.pbs.org www.pbs.org

www.politifact.com

Trump’s dubious claim on native-born Americans’ job losses

During a recent campaign rally, former President Donald Trump amplified a growing argument among some Republicans that f
www.politifact.com www.politifact.com



“… But so far, economists on both sides of the aislesay, they have seen no evidence that American-born workers are picking up jobs vacated by immigrants. They also say figures for native- and foreign-born workers should not be used to gauge the current state of the labor force.

“Looking at the number of native-born workers is not the correct way to read the jobs report,” said Jed Kolko, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Commerce Department economist.

… The number of immigrants working in the United States has declined this year, economists agree.

… What is clear, though, is the share of immigrants with jobs has fallen in the past year, from 64.1 percent to 63.4 percent in July. The share of native-born people with jobs also has fallen, though the declines have been less pronounced….

The funky math behind counts of native-born workers​

Looking at BLS-reported counts for July, it appeared that more than 2 million native-born workers had joined the labor force over the past year. The number of foreign-born workers, meanwhile, appeared to have fallen by 237,000.

…
But BLS and census officials warn against using that data to draw conclusions about population counts — or comparing it with figures from previous years. Doing so would be “a multiple-count data felony,” Kolko wrote this past week.
One big reason is that the data is hemmed in by a population estimate set by the Census Bureau in January, before anyone had any idea how immigration enforcement was going to play out.

Basically, the number of foreign-born and native-born workers have to add up to a total based on the census estimate, according to several economists consulted by The Post. As a result, any drop in foreign-born workers artificially boosts the number of native-born workers reported each month.

Although immigration has declined significantly this year, this isn’t being accurately reflected in workforce counts, said Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

The native- and foreign-born data in question comes from the Current Population Survey, a monthly undertaking by the Census Bureau, which collects information from 60,000 U.S. households, with members responding to questions over the phone or in in-person interviews. Their answers are adjusted statistically to reflect trends in the broader population.

One question the census asks: whether they are native-born or foreign-born.

“If there’s a sudden drop in immigration, or if fewer foreign-born residents respond to the survey, then, by design, the number of native-born workers would almost certainly go up,” Kolko said. “The way the calculation is set up, it’s not like you can lower the population of foreign-born workers without raising the population of native-born.”

As an extreme illustration, Kolko said that if the entire foreign-born population vanished at the end of July, this dataset would show the population of native-born residents skyrocketing by tens of millions of people.

Self-reporting of foreign-born status​

In addition, the government’s data surveys rely on self-reporting. Economists note that immigrants nervous about their status could be reporting that they are native-born, which could also skew the numbers.…”
 
nycfan said:

The U.S. could tumble into recession before seeing Trump’s promised golden age​

The U.S. economy is at risk of entering a recession before President Trump’s promised golden age, with weak job growth and high inflation blamed on his policies.

🎁—> https://wapo.st/45TW0cA

“… Whether you blame President Donald Trump’s unorthodox tariff and immigration policies or a slow-footed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell, the federal government is not doing the economy any favors these days.

The United States began the year having grown at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the final three months of 2024. Hiring was robust: employers added 323,000 jobs in December.
Fast forward to today and the news is less cheery. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, meaning the labor market has basically stalled since the president kicked off his historic “Liberation Day” tariff offensive in April. Some on Wall Street are mulling the likelihood of a recession.

… Administration officials dismiss that possibility out of hand. But, outside of recessionary periods, the U.S. has not seen hiring this weak relative to the size of the economy in more than 60 years, Jason Furman, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, posted on X.

Trump and his advisers were quick to point the finger at the Fed or the BLS while urging Americans to be patient. In an interview with CNBC, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the economy could dazzle again in as soon as “six months.”

The president himself began laying the groundwork for that argument one day earlier, saying that “in a year from now,” the employment picture will be brilliant, thanks to new investments in artificial intelligence and other marvels….”
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nycfan said:
IMG_9527.jpeg


Lumber prices are way down after spiking — seems like high or low is a warning signal, but maybe the housing market is just its own thing?
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Lumber is used for more than just housing, and it is considered a leading indicator.

This looks to me like a pullback based on what we all know is coming -- a significant economic downturn.
 
Healing said:
The days leading to and immediately after the rate cut will juice the market. Additional rate cuts likely occur through next year, leading up to the midterms. Trump will absolutely tout the market highs as a singularly unique talent of his. The vibes in the disinformation ecosystem will continue to offer spasms of all time highs for the next year, IMO, as Trump is indeed unique in people believing his bullshit (and subsequent algo responses).

Unfortunately, at some point, the square has to be circled. Corporations can only hide extortion schemes in their earnings reports for so long. Fake BLS and consumer behavior data can only cover for unemployment, foreclosures, dusty cars on dealer lots, and failing tourism businesses for so long. Trump et al. will try to extort ADP for “the right” labor data, but that’s a corporation that has its market share because it sells accuracy. Additionally, foreign investments aren’t happening like Trump claims, and eventually that absence becomes real. Additionally, foreign investments are likely to retract bc the US is stochastic, fundamentally unsound, and outright dangerous.

I think we’ll see the Dow hit 50k in the next twelve months, and I think it’ll be about as reflective of real value as a Bored Ape nft.
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Just trying to determine when to move to cash.
 
nycfan said:
IMG_9543.jpeg

🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy...1?st=emUqso&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
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Just gonna put a pin in this response from the White House:

“… A White House official said the report won’t be a tool to force BLS officials to leave the agency.

“There is nothing newsworthy about monitoring and documenting the quality of government economic statistics, and baseless conjecture that the administration is conspiring to oust BLS leadership should be treated as another unserious conspiracy theory,” said White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers.

She said “fake news” reporters are printing what she called “illogical nonsense.”…

… Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said in an interview with CNBC before the numbers were released on Friday that he believes the data will improve once more changes are made at the agency.

“I think they’ll get better because you’ll take out the people who are just trying to create noise against the president,” Lutnick said.“
 
sringwal said:
Don't get me wrong, I have benefited hugely from this period of growth (although if I invested more in stocks and less in comics, I'd be in a significantly better place financially). But, the implications behind why stocks are behaving the way they are... Yes, I know, part of it is smarter algorithms used by stockbrokers. And part of is that the rise of the crypto currency era is having some really odd reverberations on the stock market, but I can't help but feel like I am living through a giant ponzi scheme.
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Dude, 8 long boxes full of Shadowhawk #1 are going to pay off.
 
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