Economic News

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BlooVooDoo said:
I’m a financial novice, but I think bonds will have a better return over the next several months (4-7) than cash. At least that’s what I’m betting on.
Scared The Launch GIF by CTV
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I'm moving it slowly, but yes it will not be cash.

I have a stable index fund and several bond funds as options.

I just cannot afford a 50% or greater fall like we had with the housing bubble.
 
breepf said:
Dude, 8 long boxes full of Shadowhawk #1 are going to pay off.
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There was a hot minute, during COVID, where that joke had spread far enough that newbies really believed it, and the book spiked to $50. It didn’t last longer than two weeks, but those were 14 glorious days.
 
www.nytimes.com

Trump’s Treasury Secretary Threatens to Punch Housing Official in the Face

The dust-up, at a members-only club in Georgetown, was not the first time Scott Bessent has shown a hot temper.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Scott Bessent was fed up.

For weeks, the Treasury secretary believed that William J. Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, was bad-mouthing him to President Trump.

And then, last Wednesday, the two men found each other face to face at the kickoff dinner for the Executive Branch, a members-only club in Georgetown started by the president’s eldest son and a few of his allies.

A back-and-forth by the bar ensued. Mr. Bessent demanded to know why Mr. Pulte was trash-talking him to the president, and then threatened to punch him in the face.
 
From March 2024- March 2025 BLS revision reports 911,000 fewer jobs were created. This revision should bolster the call for a rate cut this month. I was certain there would be 25bps reduction in rates but seeing this interesting revision, I'm guessing it could be a 50bps reduction.
 
Two things can be true at once:
1. Trump's policies are an unmitigated disaster for the country as a whole as well as the average American, and
2. The economy was in poor shape when Biden left office (which was not Biden's fault).

I was always of the opinion that Biden and Harris made a major error by stating how great the American economy was. They should have empathized with the middle and lower classes, explained why inflation was occurring and how difficult it was for the average American, and what their plan was to improve the economy over the next four years.
 
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“… White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also accused the BLS of having “failed the American people,” but said the report showing the U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported between April of last year and March of this year proves “that President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken.”…

… The BLS released a preliminary report Tuesday that found employers added 849,000 total jobs for the year ending in March, opposed to previous data that showed 1.76 million new jobs. The Treasury Department and analysts at major U.S. banks predicted the revision, which was slightly higher than the revision issued for last year’s annual data, when the BLS lowered jobs growth by 818,000 jobs….”



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The erroneous data proves Trump was right about everything.
 
So, tell me where I'm wrong about the nature of the job revisions:

1. A business that employs 15 natives and 5 non-work-visa immigrants tells the federal government it has 20 employees. Don't want someone to snoop around.
2. Business tells the state employment office that it has 15 employees, because they would have to pay unemployment insurance on the other 5 who are off the books.
3. Monthly surveys go out, they tend to report all actual jobs.
4. Federal reconciliation with state employment offices: some of those actual jobs are deemed not to exist because they are off the books.

I'm fairly certain that would describe the process for an undocumented worker. I'm not sure if it would apply to a TPS worker. That is, I don't know if TPS recipients are eligible for unemployment (I would doubt it), and thus this set up might also create excessive reporting for TPS employees.

If this is true, then it's hilarious that nobody wants to talk about it. Dems don't want to admit that a million immigrants were working off the books. Pubs don't want to admit that they are working at all (since then they wouldn't be dangerous criminals). But the reality is that the illegal immigrants are actually bolstering a strange labor force. Note that unemployment rate didn't change much over all of these revisions, so what's happening is that the illegal immigrants are taking the jobs Americans don't want. Thus did the economy create documented and undocumented jobs in approximately equal numbers . . .
 
superrific said:
Lumber is used for more than just housing, and it is considered a leading indicator.

This looks to me like a pullback based on what we all know is coming -- a significant economic downturn.
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Pallets for shipping comes to mind. You would be amazed at the number of pallets a business can go through.
 
nycfan said:


“… White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also accused the BLS of having “failed the American people,” but said the report showing the U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than previously reported between April of last year and March of this year proves “that President Trump was right: Biden’s economy was a disaster and the BLS is broken.”…

… The BLS released a preliminary report Tuesday that found employers added 849,000 total jobs for the year ending in March, opposed to previous data that showed 1.76 million new jobs. The Treasury Department and analysts at major U.S. banks predicted the revision, which was slightly higher than the revision issued for last year’s annual data, when the BLS lowered jobs growth by 818,000 jobs….”



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The erroneous data proves Trump was right about everything.
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Whup there it is...

and now the BLS revisions are no longer fake numbers :LOL:
 
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