EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

[UNCBAdookJD]

Cornell Belcher says early exit polls need to be taken with a grain of salt. John Hieleman was less diplomatic "early exit polls are garbage."

I am trying to not give them too much weight, but hard not to look.

Early exit polls skew retiree. Working people are just starting to show up to the polls.

 

[Calheel]

If 44% think trump is better on abortion then 44% is the absolute lowest trump will Go on anything.

44% might like abortion restrictions or think "leave it to the states" is the right solution.

 

[superrific]

"Only about one-third of voters in this year’s election think the economy is in good or excellent shape, according to the initial results of CNN’s national exit poll of voters in this year’s presidential election, down from about half who said the same in 2020. About one-third say the economy is not so good, and another third that it’s poor.

Just one-quarter of voters say they’re personally better off than they were four years ago, with about 45% saying they’re worse off, and about 3 in 10 that they’re doing about the same. In 2020 exit polling, about 4 in 10 said they were doing better, and just 20% that they were worse off."

(That's from the CNN website.) Not saying Dems can't win with these numbers but this is just further confirmation of how many Americans live in an alternate reality. It's hard to see how the economy could be in any better shape at a macro level but 2/3 of Americans think it's "not so good" or "poor." You cannot make an objective case that the economy as a whole is anything other than "good" right now. But voters still generally see the economy as bad because they see themselves as doing poorly.

Which they are not. They are not doing poorly.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Early exit polls skew retiree. Working people are just starting to show up to the polls.

I believe in 2012 the early exit polls showed Romney doing extremely well and Obama doing very poorly, which raised the hopes of the Romney campaign that he was going to win. Which of course didn't happen.

 

[nycfan]

 

[Willy]

Are exit polls only sampling those who voted today, or do they also sample early voters?

 

[nycfan]

Are exit polls only sampling those who voted today, or do they also sample early voters?

Across all forms (today, EV in person and by mail). But the voters today are from early part of day.

These numbers can shift with the latter half of today voters.

 

[BillyL]

And the funniest one is trump with 50% on handling a crisis. Mfer botched Covid response literally 4 years ago lmao

So effing true, how can folks overlook that . . ? So many passed away that may have been saved.

 

[nycfan]

 

[Duke Mu]

Gee. I wonder why.

 

[rodoheel]

The economy really is the biggest thing that this board has its head in the sand on. I’m a little surprised it’s that large (2/3!) of people saying economy is bad, but economy was always going to be a losing issue for Harris.

Nobody on this board, least of all me, is surprised that economy is a losing issue for Harris. We have all been lamenting for weeks the fact that the economy is objectively very good but Harris can't campaign on that because the electorate wrongly believes it isn't. I'm just further decrying the fact that we live in a country that is so ignorant of the facts because they are so much more focused on their own personal situation and/or swayed by a constant stream of baseless propaganda telling them the economy is bad.

You could learn with a 5-minute Google how the US is doing in all major, easy-to-understand economic factors. Yet the majority of people either can't put this effort in or don't believe it even when they do. Because, like, they think they should be making 15k more than what they re or that prices should be 15% lower, so that must mean the economy is bad.

 

[lightbluenc]

People apparently equate economy = personal finances.

If people want to say their personal finances suck then that may be true. But our national economy is not bad at all.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[WaynetheDrain]

That seems like good news.

 

[Focker]

i need some bloom.

 

[nycfan]

 

[superrific]

Um, Steven, the time to do all that was, oh I don't know, October. LOL. LOL. LOL.

 

[nycfan]

2016 showed Clinton doing great

Yep, the 2012 ones are particularly famous because working class votes came in late in the process and changed the understanding. But early voting was a much smaller portion of the total then (and was not being captured anyway).

 

[superrific]

People apparently equate economy = personal finances.

If people want to say their personal finances suck then that may be true. But our national economy is not bad at all.

If their personal finances suck, they certainly aren't acting that way. Economists always prefer revealed preferences to stated ones, which is a fancy way of saying, "watch what they do, not what they say"