EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

[rodoheel]

Don't like that Hispanic number at all

 

[Zoo_View]

“He’s too extreme. We need that.” 5%? 3%? 10%?

 

[rodoheel]

Don't like PA electorate being more white...

 

[nycfan]

Sorry, tons of data from multiple different exit polls coming at you

 

[altmin]

Cornell Belcher says early exit polls need to be taken with a grain of salt. John Hieleman was less diplomatic "early exit polls are garbage."

I am trying to not give them too much weight, but hard not to look.

 

[nycfan]

 

[lightbluenc]

If 44% think trump is better on abortion then 44% is the absolute lowest trump will Go on anything.

 

[nycfan]

 

[wmheel1287]

Cornell Belcher says early exit polls need to be taken with a grain of salt. John Hieleman was less diplomatic "early exit polls are garbage."

I am trying to not give them too much weight, but hard not to look.

I think we have to hope most of them are garbage because most don't look particularly Harris friendly.

 

[superrific]

But I’d bet that few Trump supporters would say that “democracy” is their top priority. It might be 2nd or 3rd on the list, behind the economy—which is supposedly the #1 issue that Trump’s team has been hammering, and is supposedly why most Trump supporters support him.

Let’s not forget, right-wing media has been saying for years that we don’t actually have a “democracy”—we have a “constitutional republic.” So MAGA folks aren’t particularly drawn to—and protective of—the word and concept of “democracy” in the same way that Dems are.

Yeah, the democracy stuff is bad faith deflection. I'm confident that few MAGA voters would call democracy their top issue. A few, sure.

I bet a higher % of abortion respondents are Pub, from pro-life people.

 

[lawtig02]

I think we have to hope most of them are garbage because most don't look particularly Harris friendly.

I don’t think that’s true. It’s just that none of us here have even remotely enough information to interpret them.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I think we have to hope most of them are garbage because most don't look particularly Harris friendly.

They don't look like anything

 

[Geisterfahrer]

Cornell Belcher says early exit polls need to be taken with a grain of salt. John Hieleman was less diplomatic "early exit polls are garbage."

I am trying to not give them too much weight, but hard not to look.

Josh Marshall says garbage as well. I believe him.

 

[superrific]

I think we have to hope most of them are garbage because most don't look particularly Harris friendly.

Are you looking at the same exit polls that I am? Most of those are great. According to 538, Biden's approval rating is around 38. So if the approval rating is 41%, that's outperforming the polls.

And who do you trust on immigration being nearly split, and it being 4th in importance, means that the GOP's most signature issue, the one they have been hitting over and over and over again for years, is not driving votes.

Immigrants helping the economy is going to be largely a D issue. If that answer is winning in OH, that's good.

Now, they aren't all that accurate but the ones I've seen are promising.

 

[GQNC]

First of all, you're a hero! Thanks for deciding to doorknock. I know from experience how tough it is to take that first step and commit to going out.

Second of all the main way the database gets updated is through boots on the ground verification. If folks have moved and you flagged them in Minivan as "Moved", you did your part to update the database.

The freshness of the lists is a function of how much doorknocking got done in in the last few election cycles. The more doors we knock on, the better the list. I think the list in upcoming years will be much much better!

Thanks, but unfortunately if canvassing input is the source of all database updates, not enough updates will occur. To a great extent, just getting voting feedback made many people suspicious. My opinion is that Trump’s threat to punish his enemies has a good percentage of people distrustful of a stranger asking for their voting preference. Verifying the name in Minivan vs the actual resident’s name can cause a pause.

Let’s be honest also, a white person canvassing some heavily black or especially Latino neighborhoods can make people suspicious … and you notice it. I don’t blame them! I discussed this with the organizer and we agreed that it is risky to encourage the person you talk to at a Latino residence to go vote. This person may not be legal to vote and could be an illegal alien. This can make it look like these canvassers are really just trying to “set up” illegals for deportation.

Combine all this with insufficient time to cover an area and the high percentage of unanswered door knocks and it becomes impossible to provide sufficient database worthy update data.

 

[lightbluenc]

And the funniest one is trump with 50% on handling a crisis. Mfer botched Covid response literally 4 years ago lmao

 

[rodoheel]

"Only about one-third of voters in this year’s election think the economy is in good or excellent shape, according to the initial results of CNN’s national exit poll of voters in this year’s presidential election, down from about half who said the same in 2020. About one-third say the economy is not so good, and another third that it’s poor.

Just one-quarter of voters say they’re personally better off than they were four years ago, with about 45% saying they’re worse off, and about 3 in 10 that they’re doing about the same. In 2020 exit polling, about 4 in 10 said they were doing better, and just 20% that they were worse off."

(That's from the CNN website.) Not saying Dems can't win with these numbers but this is just further confirmation of how many Americans live in an alternate reality. It's hard to see how the economy could be in any better shape at a macro level but 2/3 of Americans think it's "not so good" or "poor." You cannot make an objective case that the economy as a whole is anything other than "good" right now. But voters still generally see the economy as bad because they see themselves as doing poorly.

 

[rodoheel]

And the funniest one is trump with 50% on handling a crisis. Mfer botched Covid response literally 4 years ago lmao

I find it hard to find that funny right now. if Harris wins I'll find it funny.

 

[Icky Mettle]

I think we have to hope most of them are garbage because most don't look particularly Harris friendly.

Funny. I take them with a grain of salt, but I had the opposite take from most of the ones posted here.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

"Only about one-third of voters in this year’s election think the economy is in good or excellent shape, according to the initial results of CNN’s national exit poll of voters in this year’s presidential election, down from about half who said the same in 2020. About one-third say the economy is not so good, and another third that it’s poor.

Just one-quarter of voters say they’re personally better off than they were four years ago, with about 45% saying they’re worse off, and about 3 in 10 that they’re doing about the same. In 2020 exit polling, about 4 in 10 said they were doing better, and just 20% that they were worse off."

(That's from the CNN website.) Not saying Dems can't win with these numbers but this is just further confirmation of how many Americans live in an alternate reality. It's hard to see how the economy could be in any better shape at a macro level but 2/3 of Americans think it's "not so good" or "poor." You cannot make an objective case that the economy as a whole is anything other than "good" right now. But voters still generally see the economy as bad because they see themselves as doing poorly.

The economy really is the biggest thing that this board has its head in the sand on. I’m a little surprised it’s that large (2/3!) of people saying economy is bad, but economy was always going to be a losing issue for Harris.