EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

[finesse]

I mean, I honestly agree with you completely about managing expectations and debt. I’m in a good situation due to Carolina Covenant + financial literacy before I was 18. That’s the only reason I’m anywhere close to *possibly* buying a house this year. Not everyone is so lucky. The advertising industry has thrown people out of whack.

I’m honestly amazed by how much people my age eat out. I cook every night basically, and I’m able to stretch my money because of it. Not eating a ton of meat has helped a lot.

That being said, monopoly and consolidation is also a piece of it. Overall, people’s choices are lower when it comes from everything to groceries to entertainment. These days, you have to pay money to do basically anything. I’m young, but I know for a fact it wasn’t always like this.

No it wasn't but I'd like to introduce you to the variety of anything in the 60s compared to now. The 2000s would still be a contrast but not so drastically.

 

[finesse]

It’s the appearance of variety. You see a supermarket shelf lined with dozens of different products, all owned by two food conglomerates or a private equity group or some other bullshit.

Maybe you’re talking about variety of entertainment though.

No, I'm talking actual variety. Fewer fruits and spices. A smaller variety of restaurants. Literally everything.

 

[wmheel1287]

It’s the appearance of variety. You see a supermarket shelf lined with dozens of different products, all owned by two food conglomerates or a private equity group or some other bullshit.

Maybe you’re talking about variety of entertainment though.

Variety of EVERYTHING.

You're not wrong about a ton of the issues with Democrats but you seem unwilling to acknowledge that much of our issue is also an entitled society unwilling to accept that sometimes doing without everything one wants is necessary..

You had the Carolina Covenant and as a scholarship donor (who undoubtedly makes less than 99.9% of UNC scholarship donors), im so glad you did. It's so necessary now. I had to borrow my way through Carolina but obviously costs are astronomical now by comparison to 1996-2000. But make no mistake, i live in a smaller house than half the kids I encounter fresh out of Carolina feel themselves entitled to. Couple that with their "need" for a new car and a $500 weekly coffee/lunch/dinner/drinks budget. And it definitely isn't just them. My family in Eastern NC are all MAGA to the core and plead pauper while having 3 $80,000 trucks and SUVs in the driveway while they go on 4 Carnival cruises a year and buy a travel trailer and a bass boat.

Im simply saying that all the macroeconomic data in the world regarding wages and inflation doesn't tell me as much as a glimpse at their driveways does.

The fact that they FEEL economically disadvantaged is not the same thing as actually BEING economically disadvantaged.

My 27 year old assistant will make $150k this year, lives in North Hills in a $2500 per month apartment, goes to Starbucks 4 times a day, drives a 2023 BMW convertible, is gay, and voted for Trump because "we can't afford anything anymore!".

If you have some grand fix for that outside of pure idiocracy, I'm all for it.

 

[superrific]

To act like the people going to the grocery store everyday or the people who have to send off the rent check every month don’t know what their economic circumstances are is arrogant.

Who is saying that?

I'm saying that people are not being honest -- either with themselves or with pollsters -- about what motivates them. Like, times are tough, but are they so tough that it's time to embrace fascism and concepts of plans and magic tariffs? Or are they predisposed to gravitate toward the extreme racism and xenophobia and will look for excuses to get there?

You're acting as if this is a new thing that has never happened before.

You are right to focus on the future, and I understand why the racism angle isn't appealing in that sense because it's really hard to change racial attitudes. But you keep talking about a political approach that has never worked in America and never will, in part because Americans don't actually prioritize economic needs over their religion or their social concerns. I don't care about your "material analysis." If you think "material analysis" is going to connect with people, it's like you're living on another planet.

The problem in a nutshell is that the GOP has the ultimate villain for all their narratives. "They." It's really hard to compete with they. They can do so many things. They are invisible. They hide in swamps or lurk in cities out of sight, but oh are they powerful. They pull the strings from wherever they are, and they are evil and godless and immoral. They can't be named, because they are too numerous; they can't be described, because they are too numerous and varied; and claims about them can't be evaluated rationally because nobody know exactly who they are or what they do.

It is really hard to compete with they. And hopefully, the GOP will fuck up enough that the voters will see how "they" duped them -- a very different they. But I fear the response will be tripling down on conspiracies.

 

[superrific]

Im simply saying that all the macroeconomic data in the world regarding wages and inflation doesn't tell me as much as a glimpse at their driveways does.

The fact that they FEEL economically disadvantaged is not the same thing as actually BEING economically disadvantaged.

My 27 year old assistant will make $150k this year, lives in North Hills in a $2500 per month apartment, goes to Starbucks 4 times a day, drives a 2023 BMW convertible, is gay, and voted for Trump because "we can't afford anything anymore!".

If you have some grand fix for that outside of pure idiocracy, I'm all for it.

This times a million.

 

[stankeylegjones]

I feel like I’m going either going crazy or not explaining myself well based on some of the responses I get on here.

I’m just going to keep saying what I see and feel because I fear people won’t hear it elsewhere.

I can only imagine what it is like to have folks, who you know are very intelligent, continue to "miss the point" of your posts. You might be going crazy, I don't know, but you are definitely explaining yourself and your points, which I agree with (and have even tried to take up the fight with you, and snoop), very well. It seems that some simply can't let go of it being because of racism or mysoginy and actually look deeper into the reasons why so many voted for Trump. We all know that Trump is a horrible choice and will only make things worse, yet they fall back on repeating that, as if you or I or anyone else here is arguing that he will improve things. What they refuse to acknoweledge is the simple expression: if you keep doing what you are doing then you will get what you've gotten. Many folks look at what they've gotten these past four years and are afraid of it continuing. Luckily I haven't had to worry about being able to afford rent or groceries, but that doesn't mean that I can't try to put myself in someone's shoes who has. To those folks, they are faced with the choice: vote for the status quo or vote for a shot in the dark. If you feel like the first option is a guaranteed loss then what would you do? Many folks are up against the wall right now, and rather than being acknowledged they are told about how great the economy is doing. As you said, it's a slap in the face. Anyways, my soapbox is cracking, so I'll leave by saying, thank you for having the strength to continue pointing this out, and I hope those refusing to accept it will come around.

 

[wmheel1287]

I can only imagine what it is like to have folks, who you know are very intelligent, continue to "miss the point" of your posts. You might be going crazy, I don't know, but you are definitely explaining yourself and your points, which I agree with (and have even tried to take up the fight with you, and snoop), very well. It seems that some simply can't let go of it being because of racism or mysoginy and actually look deeper into the reasons why so many voted for Trump. We all know that Trump is a horrible choice and will only make things worse, yet they fall back on repeating that, as if you or I or anyone else here is arguing that he will improve things. What they refuse to acknoweledge is the simple expression: if you keep doing what you are doing then you will get what you've gotten. Many folks look at what they've gotten these past four years and are afraid of it continuing. Luckily I haven't had to worry about being able to afford rent or groceries, but that doesn't mean that I can't try to put myself in someone's shoes who has. To those folks, they are faced with the choice: vote for the status quo or vote for a shot in the dark. If you feel like the first option is a guaranteed loss then what would you do? Many folks are up against the wall right now, and rather than being acknowledged they are told about how great the economy is doing. As you said, it's a slap in the face. Anyways, my soapbox is cracking, so I'll leave by saying, thank you for having the strength to continue pointing this out, and I hope those refusing to accept it will come around.

If that's the case, then there's nothing to do do other than wait for it to get much worse for them than it has been. Youre essentially saying that the only thing motivating them to vote is "anything other than the same". So just wait and be "not the same".

Is there something deeper there than that? Honestly I already feel the contrast is about as stark as it can be. It's virtually impossible to simultaneously be in power and preach change. If change for the sake of change is the motivating factor, then there was never anything to be done about the election from the perspective of Democrats.

 

[wmheel1287]

Harris could’ve offered change with the right campaign strategy. That’s the whole argument we’re having here. She embraced stasis and tried to ride it out with a risk averse strategy.

They were hoping people wouldn’t put Trump back in the White House for all the reasons highly informed voters have talked about for years. We don’t decide elections though.

I don't know about that. Of all the bullshit that was thrown at Harris I thought the one that made sense to me was "if youre different why aren't you doing it now". While I logically understand a VP doesn't set policy, I don't think that wall was going to be broken through.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

One thing that ought to be noted, as it's become clearer as more election results are posted, is just how much of this GOP victory was a victory for Trump and not necessarily the party as a whole. In state after state we're seeing Republican Senate or House candidates running well behind Trump and losing. The latest Republican to lose is Sam Brown in Nevada, who got over 70,000 fewer votes than Trump. And we're seeing this pattern over and over again across the country. It really does seem as if voters loved them some Trump but were much less enthusiastic about other members of his party. It's small comfort for the short term, but I do wonder if Trumpism will be transferable to any of the current crop of future GOP presidential contenders, including even people like Haley or Youngkin or Vance. I have doubts that any of them could bring out the vote as Trump did in 2020 and this year. But of course that doesn't excuse the failures of the Democrats or their need to connect with more voters.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

One thing that ought to be noted, as it's become clearer as more election results are posted, is just how much of this GOP victory was a victory for Trump and not necessarily the party as a whole. In state after state we're seeing Republican Senate or House candidates running well behind Trump and losing. The latest Republican to lose is Sam Brown in Nevada, who got over 70,000 fewer votes than Trump. And we're seeing this pattern over and over again across the country. It really does seem as if voters loved them some Trump but were much less enthusiastic about other members of his party. It's small comfort for the short term, but I do wonder if Trumpism will be transferable to any of the current crop of future GOP presidential contenders, including even people like Haley or Youngkin or Vance. I have doubts that any of them could bring out the vote as Trump did in 2020 and this year. But of course that doesn't excuse the failures of the Democrats or their need to connect with more voters.

No other candidate will be able to replicate Trump’s formula. He fired up and expanded the base like basically no one before him ever has

 

[BubbaOtis]

A good piece on 60 Minutes tonight on the post-mortem.

 

[finesse]

No other candidate will be able to replicate Trump’s formula. He fired up and expanded the base like basically no one before him ever has

So biggly he might get 50% of the vote. Pretty sure that would put him in the bottom half.

 

[gregh1]

One thing that ought to be noted, as it's become clearer as more election results are posted, is just how much of this GOP victory was a victory for Trump and not necessarily the party as a whole. In state after state we're seeing Republican Senate or House candidates running well behind Trump and losing. The latest Republican to lose is Sam Brown in Nevada, who got over 70,000 fewer votes than Trump. And we're seeing this pattern over and over again across the country. It really does seem as if voters loved them some Trump but were much less enthusiastic about other members of his party. It's small comfort for the short term, but I do wonder if Trumpism will be transferable to any of the current crop of future GOP presidential contenders, including even people like Haley or Youngkin or Vance. I have doubts that any of them could bring out the vote as Trump did in 2020 and this year. But of course that doesn't excuse the failures of the Democrats or their need to connect with more voters.

If it's vibes, can someone capture the Trump-vibes or will it be easy to ride anti-incumbent vibes?

 

[HeelYeah2012]

So biggly he might get 50% of the vote. Pretty sure that would put him in the bottom half.

He won the election despite being the most hated person in American politics history by the other side. All because he fired the base up so much and expanded the base to reach new voters who usually don’t vote.

 

[wmheel1287]

No other candidate will be able to replicate Trump’s formula. He fired up and expanded the base like basically no one before him ever has

Which is the single greatest condemnation of the American people in our lifetimes. He is such a singularly awful human being. That he motivates people is shocking to my core and will always remain that way.

He would literally rip off every single voter of his for $5 if given the opportunity and they love him for it.

 

[gregh1]

Harris did better in Swing states than the nation as a whole. The focus was largely on the swing states, so that at least says something about her (the dem) strategy being partly effective, no?

 

[Mulberry Heel]

If it's vibes, can someone capture the Trump-vibes or will it be easy to ride anti-incumbent vibes?

I don't think it's "vibes" as much as it is that Trump is more popular with certain segments of the population that many give him credit for. He increased his 2020 vote by 11 million more votes than in 2016, despite his first term being a total shitshow. And he'll get about that same number of votes this year. I don't see any of the current crop of Republicans having that kind of charisma or drawing power. The danger, imo, is that another new Republican will come along who does have something similar to Trump's charisma and ability to bring new voters into the party.

 

[finesse]

He won the election despite being the most hated person in American politics history by the other side. All because he fired the base up so much and expanded the base to reach new voters who usually don’t vote.

And ended up with about the same number of votes because the old and smart left at about the same rate as the young and dumb joined on. No doubt he won. Brag on that if you want to. He really is a great con man. I'll bet no candidate ever made as much money hawking junk to his followers.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Is Trump the Republican Obama?

In terms of personal quality and character and intelligence and decency and dignity and all the other things you should look for in a good person and president, absolutely not. In terms of his popularity with his party's base and ability to bring out new voters and, yes, a certain level of personal charisma that draws his followers to him, probably yes.

 

[stankeylegjones]

If that's the case, then there's nothing to do do other than wait for it to get much worse for them than it has been. Youre essentially saying that the only thing motivating them to vote is "anything other than the same". So just wait and be "not the same".

Is there something deeper there than that? Honestly I already feel the contrast is about as stark as it can be. It's virtually impossible to simultaneously be in power and preach change. If change for the sake of change is the motivating factor, then there was never anything to be done about the election from the perspective of Democrats.

Hopefully you are right, and this shit will be over after four years, with us all getting back to democratic control of the white house and branches.

There's no way of knowing, but I do think if she'd come out and championed the strength of the economy while also pointing out how she would help those struggling to make ends meet, then it would have resonated with many voters (both who did vote and those who sat it out).