EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

[Paine]

 

[Paine]

“The economy is fine”

Polygraph | Newsletter n°276 | 7 Nov 2024

www.stephensemler.com

Source and worth the read. Standard of living is about a lot more than how many phones and TVs we have. Your point about indoor plumbing is well-taken. It’s true, most people have indoor plumbing now. There’s still a ton of people on government assistance if that’s the metric you’re going to use, though.

 

[finesse]

“The economy is fine”

Polygraph | Newsletter n°276 | 7 Nov 2024

www.stephensemler.com

Source and worth the read. Standard of living is about a lot more than how many phones and TVs we have. Your point about indoor plumbing is well-taken. It’s true, most people have indoor plumbing now. There’s still a ton of people on government assistance if that’s the metric you’re going to use, though.

I looked at the article, the numbers and such but how were those numbers collected? Were they self reported or what were they based on?

 

[Paine]

I looked at the article, the numbers and such but how were those numbers collected? Were they self reported or what were they based on?

Data came from the U.S. Census Bureau. The exit polls he analyzed at the beginning of the piece are from CNN and are linked in the article.

 

[finesse]

Data came from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Yes but how do they collect it?

 

[Paine]

Yes but how do they collect it?

I’m not sure. I assume it’s self reported.

 

[finesse]

I’m not sure. I assume it’s self reported.

I ended up looking it up. They do a fair amount of crosschecking. It's still a bit subjective but ,for the little I know about it, a pretty good look.

 

[nycfan]

 

[JeepCSC]

Turnout on par with 2020 would be nice.

 

[wmheel1287]

Because I’m arguing that Democrats must run a campaign that activates the same emotions in people by casting blame on who is actually responsible for the ills plaguing our society. Otherwise the Right will win by blaming those who aren’t actually to blame but easy to scapegoat.

People make the mistake of thinking I’m asking for Democrats to run some technocrat who throws out 100 page policy memos. I’m not.

As far as standard of living is concerned, real wage growth has not outpaced inflation. It has become nearly impossible for young people to enter the housing market due to skyrocketing costs. People are concerned about the failing quality of public education. People are scared of climate catastrophe.

Just because your situation has gotten better over the last 40 years doesn’t mean everyone shares that experience. A lot of young people see the future as one where we will live out a lower quality of life than our parents.

We can’t continue to discount people’s lived experiences of the economy by pointing out graphs and figures about macroeconomic indicators invented right after the Depression. To act like the people going to the grocery store everyday or the people who have to send off the rent check every month don’t know what their economic circumstances are is arrogant. It’s the exact attitude that has caused the Democratic Party to end up where we are today.

And you are also trying to have it both ways. You say that we shouldn't point to macroeconomic indicators (which i have not) and not ignored people's lived experiences. Im not. I'm telling you that their perception doesn't match their lived experience. I didn't share my anecdote because it was my experience. I shared it because it was the common experience and that common experience now is in a far better place.

We are in an era where wages will never again outrage inflation because we have so many external factors printing money such as crypto currency. Wages are such a poor way to measure how people are doing now. The reality is that Americans have allowed social media to create totally unrealistic expectations of lifestyle. Half of America is mad now because they can't yearly go to Disney World when that has never been a remotely attainable goal.

And i sympathize greatly on the housing front. I have worked for 20 years to create housing affordability. But again, the expectations are insane in many cases. Youth now think that they should be able to buy a 2200 square foot house in a prime location living by themselves. Those with realistic expectations and a decent handle on other debt we can still find homes for.

 

[Paine]

And you are also trying to have it both ways. You say that we shouldn't point to macroeconomic indicators (which i have not) and not ignored people's lived experiences. Im not. I'm telling you that their perception doesn't match their lived experience. I didn't share my anecdote because it was my experience. I shared it because it was the common experience and that common experience now is in a far better place.

We are in an era where wages will never again outrage inflation because we have so many external factors printing money such as crypto currency. Wages are such a poor way to measure how people are doing now. The reality is that Americans have allowed social media to create totally unrealistic expectations of lifestyle. Half of America is mad now because they can't yearly go to Disney World when that has never been a remotely attainable goal.

And i sympathize greatly on the housing front. I have worked for 20 years to create housing affordability. But again, the expectations are insane in many cases. Youth now think that they should be able to buy a 2200 square foot house in a prime location living by themselves. Those with realistic expectations and a decent handle on other debt we can still find homes for.

I mean, I honestly agree with you completely about managing expectations and debt. I’m in a good situation due to Carolina Covenant + financial literacy before I was 18. That’s the only reason I’m anywhere close to *possibly* buying a house this year. Not everyone is so lucky. The advertising industry has thrown people out of whack.

I’m honestly amazed by how much people my age eat out. I cook every night basically, and I’m able to stretch my money because of it. Not eating a ton of meat has helped a lot.

That being said, monopoly and consolidation is also a piece of it. Overall, people’s choices are lower when it comes from everything to groceries to entertainment. These days, you have to pay money to do basically anything. I’m young, but I know for a fact it wasn’t always like this.

 

[stankeylegjones]

You make the mistake of thinking elections aren’t won at a visceral level when they are. Images, feelings, etc.

We are in a post-liberal political world. Look around you and you see it everywhere. Liberal democratic institutions of the post-WWII years have been discredited by the neoliberal policy of the post-Cold War years.

People want something different than a defense of the system that has utterly failed to provide Americans with the basic standard of living that we had come to expect as Americans.

Above all, Trump offers blame and vindication. He offers a home for people who feel alienated from the status quo, which is a lot of people when society is as isolated as it has become. He offers reasons for why people’s standard of living have declined. It’s immigrants coming to steal your jobs, it’s the money given to trans people, it’s the liberal elite.

The Democratic Party offered a defense of the current system and little else. The few progressive policies offered by Harris came off as half-baked given her flip flops and lackluster messaging. This wasn’t helped by her literally embracing someone who was emblematic of the failures of American policy over the last half century: Liz Cheney.

TL;DR: The Democratic Party is still trying to operate as a liberal party at a time when liberalism has been thoroughly discredited in the minds of the average American. We are in an era where policy of left vs. right matters less than policy of pro or anti establishment.

I, of course, happen to think left policy solutions work. It doesn’t matter if we can’t win power to implement them.

You have, on numerous occasions, explained this at a level and with articulation that should be clear to all. Why some here can't seem to comprehend it is beyond inability. They willingly refuse to read your posts, or they are deliberately refusing to acknowledge it, throwing up straw men and trying to change the conversation as they go. It's frustrating for me, and thus, must be incredibly frustrating for you, as you are devoting a lot of your time to continue to educate on this topic.

 

[finesse]

I mean, I honestly agree with you completely about managing expectations and debt. I’m in a good situation due to Carolina Covenant + financial literacy before I was 18. That’s the only reason I’m anywhere close to *possibly* buying a house this year. Not everyone is so lucky. The advertising industry has thrown people out of whack.

I’m honestly amazed by how much people my age eat out. I cook every night basically, and I’m able to stretch my money because of it. Not eating a ton of meat has helped a lot.

That being said, monopoly and consolidation is also a piece of it. Overall, people’s choices are lower when it comes from everything to groceries to entertainment. These days, you have to pay money to do basically anything. I’m young, but I know for a fact it wasn’t always like this.

No it wasn't but I'd like to introduce you to the variety of anything in the 60s compared to now. The 2000s would still be a contrast but not so drastically.

 

[Paine]

You have, on numerous occasions, explained this at a level and with articulation that should be clear to all. Why some here can't seem to comprehend it is beyond inability. They willingly refuse to read your posts, or they are deliberately refusing to acknowledge it, throwing up straw men and trying to change the conversation as they go. It's frustrating for me, and thus, must be incredibly frustrating for you, as you are devoting a lot of your time to continue to educate on this topic.

I feel like I’m going either going crazy or not explaining myself well based on some of the responses I get on here.

I’m just going to keep saying what I see and feel because I fear people won’t hear it elsewhere.

 

[Paine]

No it wasn't but I'd like to introduce you to the variety of anything in the 60s compared to now. The 2000s would still be a contrast but not so drastically.

It’s the appearance of variety. You see a supermarket shelf lined with dozens of different products, all owned by two food conglomerates or a private equity group or some other bullshit.

Maybe you’re talking about variety of entertainment though.

 

[finesse]

It’s the appearance of variety. You see a supermarket shelf lined with dozens of different products, all owned by two food conglomerates or a private equity group or some other bullshit.

Maybe you’re talking about variety of entertainment though.

No, I'm talking actual variety. Fewer fruits and spices. A smaller variety of restaurants. Literally everything.

 

[wmheel1287]

It’s the appearance of variety. You see a supermarket shelf lined with dozens of different products, all owned by two food conglomerates or a private equity group or some other bullshit.

Maybe you’re talking about variety of entertainment though.

Variety of EVERYTHING.

You're not wrong about a ton of the issues with Democrats but you seem unwilling to acknowledge that much of our issue is also an entitled society unwilling to accept that sometimes doing without everything one wants is necessary..

You had the Carolina Covenant and as a scholarship donor (who undoubtedly makes less than 99.9% of UNC scholarship donors), im so glad you did. It's so necessary now. I had to borrow my way through Carolina but obviously costs are astronomical now by comparison to 1996-2000. But make no mistake, i live in a smaller house than half the kids I encounter fresh out of Carolina feel themselves entitled to. Couple that with their "need" for a new car and a $500 weekly coffee/lunch/dinner/drinks budget. And it definitely isn't just them. My family in Eastern NC are all MAGA to the core and plead pauper while having 3 $80,000 trucks and SUVs in the driveway while they go on 4 Carnival cruises a year and buy a travel trailer and a bass boat.

Im simply saying that all the macroeconomic data in the world regarding wages and inflation doesn't tell me as much as a glimpse at their driveways does.

The fact that they FEEL economically disadvantaged is not the same thing as actually BEING economically disadvantaged.

My 27 year old assistant will make $150k this year, lives in North Hills in a $2500 per month apartment, goes to Starbucks 4 times a day, drives a 2023 BMW convertible, is gay, and voted for Trump because "we can't afford anything anymore!".

If you have some grand fix for that outside of pure idiocracy, I'm all for it.

 

[Paine]

Variety of EVERYTHING.

You're not wrong about a ton of the issues with Democrats but you seem unwilling to acknowledge that much of our issue is also an entitled society unwilling to accept that sometimes doing without everything one wants is necessary..

You had the Carolina Covenant and as a scholarship donor (who undoubtedly makes less than 99.9% of UNC scholarship donors), im so glad you did. It's so necessary now. I had to borrow my way through Carolina but obviously costs are astronomical now by comparison to 1996-2000. But make no mistake, i live in a smaller house than half the kids I encounter fresh out of Carolina feel themselves entitled to. Couple that with their "need" for a new car and a $500 weekly coffee/lunch/dinner/drinks budget. And it definitely isn't just them. My family in Eastern NC are all MAGA to the core and plead pauper while having 3 $80,000 trucks and SUVs in the driveway while they go on 4 Carnival cruises a year and buy a travel trailer and a bass boat.

Im simply saying that all the macroeconomic data in the world regarding wages and inflation doesn't tell me as much as a glimpse at their driveways does.

The fact that they FEEL economically disadvantaged is not the same thing as actually BEING economically disadvantaged.

My 27 year old assistant will make $150k this year, lives in North Hills in a $2500 per month apartment, goes to Starbucks 4 times a day, drives a 2023 BMW convertible, is gay, and voted for Trump because "we can't afford anything anymore!".

If you have some grand fix for that outside of pure idiocracy, I'm all for it.

I don’t have some grand fix for all of it, no. Wish I did. A lot of what you described sounds like people who vote for Republicans voting for Republicans. They latch onto the argument that the campaign uses to target swing voters, but that’s about it. I don’t think those people were voting for a Democrat under any circumstances.

There are people who are feeling worse off because they are worse off. Regardless of whether these people didn’t vote or voted for Trump or whatever, these are the people the Democratic Party needs to organize. It’s a big enough bloc to win because we’ve done it before.

I don’t really have much more to say about it other than thank you for being a scholarship donor.

 

[superrific]

To act like the people going to the grocery store everyday or the people who have to send off the rent check every month don’t know what their economic circumstances are is arrogant.

Who is saying that?

I'm saying that people are not being honest -- either with themselves or with pollsters -- about what motivates them. Like, times are tough, but are they so tough that it's time to embrace fascism and concepts of plans and magic tariffs? Or are they predisposed to gravitate toward the extreme racism and xenophobia and will look for excuses to get there?

You're acting as if this is a new thing that has never happened before.

You are right to focus on the future, and I understand why the racism angle isn't appealing in that sense because it's really hard to change racial attitudes. But you keep talking about a political approach that has never worked in America and never will, in part because Americans don't actually prioritize economic needs over their religion or their social concerns. I don't care about your "material analysis." If you think "material analysis" is going to connect with people, it's like you're living on another planet.

The problem in a nutshell is that the GOP has the ultimate villain for all their narratives. "They." It's really hard to compete with they. They can do so many things. They are invisible. They hide in swamps or lurk in cities out of sight, but oh are they powerful. They pull the strings from wherever they are, and they are evil and godless and immoral. They can't be named, because they are too numerous; they can't be described, because they are too numerous and varied; and claims about them can't be evaluated rationally because nobody know exactly who they are or what they do.

It is really hard to compete with they. And hopefully, the GOP will fuck up enough that the voters will see how "they" duped them -- a very different they. But I fear the response will be tripling down on conspiracies.

 

[superrific]

Im simply saying that all the macroeconomic data in the world regarding wages and inflation doesn't tell me as much as a glimpse at their driveways does.

The fact that they FEEL economically disadvantaged is not the same thing as actually BEING economically disadvantaged.

My 27 year old assistant will make $150k this year, lives in North Hills in a $2500 per month apartment, goes to Starbucks 4 times a day, drives a 2023 BMW convertible, is gay, and voted for Trump because "we can't afford anything anymore!".

If you have some grand fix for that outside of pure idiocracy, I'm all for it.

This times a million.