EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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Who is saying that?

I'm saying that people are not being honest -- either with themselves or with pollsters -- about what motivates them. Like, times are tough, but are they so tough that it's time to embrace fascism and concepts of plans and magic tariffs? Or are they predisposed to gravitate toward the extreme racism and xenophobia and will look for excuses to get there?

You're acting as if this is a new thing that has never happened before.

You are right to focus on the future, and I understand why the racism angle isn't appealing in that sense because it's really hard to change racial attitudes. But you keep talking about a political approach that has never worked in America and never will, in part because Americans don't actually prioritize economic needs over their religion or their social concerns. I don't care about your "material analysis." If you think "material analysis" is going to connect with people, it's like you're living on another planet.

The problem in a nutshell is that the GOP has the ultimate villain for all their narratives. "They." It's really hard to compete with they. They can do so many things. They are invisible. They hide in swamps or lurk in cities out of sight, but oh are they powerful. They pull the strings from wherever they are, and they are evil and godless and immoral. They can't be named, because they are too numerous; they can't be described, because they are too numerous and varied; and claims about them can't be evaluated rationally because nobody know exactly who they are or what they do.

It is really hard to compete with they. And hopefully, the GOP will fuck up enough that the voters will see how "they" duped them -- a very different they. But I fear the response will be tripling down on conspiracies.
If you think the boat-in-the-driveway MAGA head is remotely close to the kind of voter I’m talking about the party winning back then you’re on another planet, not me.

We’re talking about a narrow band of voters that has voted for Democrats before but swung to Republicans in 2024.

Again, I really have run out of ways to explain this concept so either believe me or don’t. I’m focusing on going forward.
 
I feel like I’m going either going crazy or not explaining myself well based on some of the responses I get on here.

I’m just going to keep saying what I see and feel because I fear people won’t hear it elsewhere.
I can only imagine what it is like to have folks, who you know are very intelligent, continue to "miss the point" of your posts. You might be going crazy, I don't know, but you are definitely explaining yourself and your points, which I agree with (and have even tried to take up the fight with you, and snoop), very well. It seems that some simply can't let go of it being because of racism or mysoginy and actually look deeper into the reasons why so many voted for Trump. We all know that Trump is a horrible choice and will only make things worse, yet they fall back on repeating that, as if you or I or anyone else here is arguing that he will improve things. What they refuse to acknoweledge is the simple expression: if you keep doing what you are doing then you will get what you've gotten. Many folks look at what they've gotten these past four years and are afraid of it continuing. Luckily I haven't had to worry about being able to afford rent or groceries, but that doesn't mean that I can't try to put myself in someone's shoes who has. To those folks, they are faced with the choice: vote for the status quo or vote for a shot in the dark. If you feel like the first option is a guaranteed loss then what would you do? Many folks are up against the wall right now, and rather than being acknowledged they are told about how great the economy is doing. As you said, it's a slap in the face. Anyways, my soapbox is cracking, so I'll leave by saying, thank you for having the strength to continue pointing this out, and I hope those refusing to accept it will come around.
 
I can only imagine what it is like to have folks, who you know are very intelligent, continue to "miss the point" of your posts. You might be going crazy, I don't know, but you are definitely explaining yourself and your points, which I agree with (and have even tried to take up the fight with you, and snoop), very well. It seems that some simply can't let go of it being because of racism or mysoginy and actually look deeper into the reasons why so many voted for Trump. We all know that Trump is a horrible choice and will only make things worse, yet they fall back on repeating that, as if you or I or anyone else here is arguing that he will improve things. What they refuse to acknoweledge is the simple expression: if you keep doing what you are doing then you will get what you've gotten. Many folks look at what they've gotten these past four years and are afraid of it continuing. Luckily I haven't had to worry about being able to afford rent or groceries, but that doesn't mean that I can't try to put myself in someone's shoes who has. To those folks, they are faced with the choice: vote for the status quo or vote for a shot in the dark. If you feel like the first option is a guaranteed loss then what would you do? Many folks are up against the wall right now, and rather than being acknowledged they are told about how great the economy is doing. As you said, it's a slap in the face. Anyways, my soapbox is cracking, so I'll leave by saying, thank you for having the strength to continue pointing this out, and I hope those refusing to accept it will come around.
If that's the case, then there's nothing to do do other than wait for it to get much worse for them than it has been. Youre essentially saying that the only thing motivating them to vote is "anything other than the same". So just wait and be "not the same".

Is there something deeper there than that? Honestly I already feel the contrast is about as stark as it can be. It's virtually impossible to simultaneously be in power and preach change. If change for the sake of change is the motivating factor, then there was never anything to be done about the election from the perspective of Democrats.
 
If that's the case, then there's nothing to do do other than wait for it to get much worse for them than it has been. Youre essentially saying that the only thing motivating them to vote is "anything other than the same". So just wait and be "not the same".

Is there something deeper there than that? Honestly I already feel the contrast is about as stark as it can be. It's virtually impossible to simultaneously be in power and preach change. If change for the sake of change is the motivating factor, then there was never anything to be done about the election from the perspective of Democrats.
Harris could’ve offered change with the right campaign strategy. That’s the whole argument we’re having here. She embraced stasis and tried to ride it out with a risk averse strategy.

They were hoping people wouldn’t put Trump back in the White House for all the reasons highly informed voters have talked about for years. We don’t decide elections though.
 
Harris could’ve offered change with the right campaign strategy. That’s the whole argument we’re having here. She embraced stasis and tried to ride it out with a risk averse strategy.

They were hoping people wouldn’t put Trump back in the White House for all the reasons highly informed voters have talked about for years. We don’t decide elections though.
I don't know about that. Of all the bullshit that was thrown at Harris I thought the one that made sense to me was "if youre different why aren't you doing it now". While I logically understand a VP doesn't set policy, I don't think that wall was going to be broken through.
 
I don't know about that. Of all the bullshit that was thrown at Harris I thought the one that made sense to me was "if youre different why aren't you doing it now". While I logically understand a VP doesn't set policy, I don't think that wall was going to be broken through.
We’ll never know if it would’ve made the difference for her to cleanly break with Biden on a number of things while still acknowledging the success of parts of his record.

But to say it was just because of racism or sexism or any other ism is where my main disagreement is. Frankly I think the media explanation is much more compelling than either of those as well.

We know the truth is a combination of all of the above. I happen to think that the share of Trump’s vote most willing to vote for a Democrat is also the share that would’ve been most convinced by economic populism.
 
One thing that ought to be noted, as it's become clearer as more election results are posted, is just how much of this GOP victory was a victory for Trump and not necessarily the party as a whole. In state after state we're seeing Republican Senate or House candidates running well behind Trump and losing. The latest Republican to lose is Sam Brown in Nevada, who got over 70,000 fewer votes than Trump. And we're seeing this pattern over and over again across the country. It really does seem as if voters loved them some Trump but were much less enthusiastic about other members of his party. It's small comfort for the short term, but I do wonder if Trumpism will be transferable to any of the current crop of future GOP presidential contenders, including even people like Haley or Youngkin or Vance. I have doubts that any of them could bring out the vote as Trump did in 2020 and this year. But of course that doesn't excuse the failures of the Democrats or their need to connect with more voters.
 
One thing that ought to be noted, as it's become clearer as more election results are posted, is just how much of this GOP victory was a victory for Trump and not necessarily the party as a whole. In state after state we're seeing Republican Senate or House candidates running well behind Trump and losing. The latest Republican to lose is Sam Brown in Nevada, who got over 70,000 fewer votes than Trump. And we're seeing this pattern over and over again across the country. It really does seem as if voters loved them some Trump but were much less enthusiastic about other members of his party. It's small comfort for the short term, but I do wonder if Trumpism will be transferable to any of the current crop of future GOP presidential contenders, including even people like Haley or Youngkin or Vance. I have doubts that any of them could bring out the vote as Trump did in 2020 and this year. But of course that doesn't excuse the failures of the Democrats or their need to connect with more voters.
No other candidate will be able to replicate Trump’s formula. He fired up and expanded the base like basically no one before him ever has
 
One thing that ought to be noted, as it's become clearer as more election results are posted, is just how much of this GOP victory was a victory for Trump and not necessarily the party as a whole. In state after state we're seeing Republican Senate or House candidates running well behind Trump and losing. The latest Republican to lose is Sam Brown in Nevada, who got over 70,000 fewer votes than Trump. And we're seeing this pattern over and over again across the country. It really does seem as if voters loved them some Trump but were much less enthusiastic about other members of his party. It's small comfort for the short term, but I do wonder if Trumpism will be transferable to any of the current crop of future GOP presidential contenders, including even people like Haley or Youngkin or Vance. I have doubts that any of them could bring out the vote as Trump did in 2020 and this year. But of course that doesn't excuse the failures of the Democrats or their need to connect with more voters.
If it's vibes, can someone capture the Trump-vibes or will it be easy to ride anti-incumbent vibes?
 
So biggly he might get 50% of the vote. Pretty sure that would put him in the bottom half.
He won the election despite being the most hated person in American politics history by the other side. All because he fired the base up so much and expanded the base to reach new voters who usually don’t vote.
 
No other candidate will be able to replicate Trump’s formula. He fired up and expanded the base like basically no one before him ever has
Which is the single greatest condemnation of the American people in our lifetimes. He is such a singularly awful human being. That he motivates people is shocking to my core and will always remain that way.

He would literally rip off every single voter of his for $5 if given the opportunity and they love him for it.
 
Harris did better in Swing states than the nation as a whole. The focus was largely on the swing states, so that at least says something about her (the dem) strategy being partly effective, no?
 
If it's vibes, can someone capture the Trump-vibes or will it be easy to ride anti-incumbent vibes?
I don't think it's "vibes" as much as it is that Trump is more popular with certain segments of the population that many give him credit for. He increased his 2020 vote by 11 million more votes than in 2016, despite his first term being a total shitshow. And he'll get about that same number of votes this year. I don't see any of the current crop of Republicans having that kind of charisma or drawing power. The danger, imo, is that another new Republican will come along who does have something similar to Trump's charisma and ability to bring new voters into the party.
 
I don't think it's "vibes" as much as it is that Trump is more popular with certain segments of the population that many give him credit for. He increased his 2020 vote by 11 million more votes than in 2016, despite his first term being a total shitshow. And he'll get about that same number of votes this year. I don't see any of the current crop of Republicans having that kind of charisma or drawing power. The danger, imo, is that another new Republican will come along who does have something similar to Trump's charisma and ability to bring new voters into the party.
Is Trump the Republican Obama?
 
He won the election despite being the most hated person in American politics history by the other side. All because he fired the base up so much and expanded the base to reach new voters who usually don’t vote.
And ended up with about the same number of votes because the old and smart left at about the same rate as the young and dumb joined on. No doubt he won. Brag on that if you want to. He really is a great con man. I'll bet no candidate ever made as much money hawking junk to his followers.
 
Is Trump the Republican Obama?
In terms of personal quality and character and intelligence and decency and dignity and all the other things you should look for in a good person and president, absolutely not. In terms of his popularity with his party's base and ability to bring out new voters and, yes, a certain level of personal charisma that draws his followers to him, probably yes.
 
In terms of personal quality and character and intelligence and decency and dignity and all the other things you should look for in a good person and president, absolutely not. In terms of his popularity with his party's base and ability to bring out new voters and, yes, a certain level of personal charisma that draws his followers to him, probably yes.
Right, didn’t mean the first part.

I think they are parallel figures in many ways. They paper over deficiencies in their respective parties. Democrats are still trying to figure out a post-Obama strategy. Republicans will have to figure out a post-Trump strategy.

There are a ton of cleavages to exploit within the Republican Party. Trump is holding it all together right now. But he’s cannibalized the internal party structures that will be needed when he’s gone.
 
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