EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

[HeelYeah2012]

Nah they’re all just sexist and racist.

Joke or serious?

 

[DantesHair]

Obviously a joke based on everything I’ve said about why I think Democrats lost the election.

Democracies across the world had their incumbent party either lose power or lose seats. I think it’s obvious that such a global phenomenon can only be caused by other global factors: the decline of neoliberalism and the American world order + inflation pressure post Covid.

I linked to Sheinbaum’s Wikipedia page because Morena was one of the few ruling parties that did not lose power. They didn’t stay in power by catering to the right wingers in Mexico. They stayed in power because they passed robust social safety legislation under AMLO and Sheinbaum has was trusted by Mexicans to continue this economic process.

If he was planning to run all along (or even if he just wanted to improve Americans lives), Biden should’ve gone progressive and passed some social programs that could easily be pointed to. Medicare for all would’ve been a great start. I would imagine that most Americans can’t point to his obvious wins (infrastructure) but can point to all kinds of perceived failings.

 

[finesse]

If he was planning to run all along (or even if he just wanted to improve Americans lives), Biden should’ve gone progressive and passed some social programs that could easily be pointed to. Medicare for all would’ve been a great start. I would imagine that most Americans can’t point to his obvious wins (infrastructure) but can point to all kinds of perceived failings.

It might be a novel concept but there's a pretty good case to be made that the infrastructure and economy was more immediately important than anything else in his mind, including pandering for reelection. Look how much the opposition hurt over the immigration bill.

 

[CallMeTyler]

We wouldn’t have been able to pass Medicare for All with the Congressional makeup we had in 2021. Manchin and Sinema couldn’t even bring themselves to vote for a continued reduction in child poverty via the child tax credit.

Too often, it felt like Harris was averse to actually running on the populist progressive things Biden did. See: unions, antitrust, etc.

Biden ran on these things in 2020 and was rewarded by voters for it. Harris could’ve pointed towards Biden’s antimonopoly policies as something she wanted to build on. She never talked about it. Wonder why? Almost like her campaign and the party itself is too interested in what corporate consultants and lobbyists have to say instead of what average Americans have to say.

Hell, Harris could’ve ran on Medicare for All with this exact message. Give me a congressional majority and we will pass Medicare for All. This is how Dems won the Senate in 2020. They said give us the majority and you will get another round of stimulus checks. It worked! And we abandoned it.

Biden also implemented the most progressive, forward-thinking policy this country has seen since the 1950's, and yet, the country didn't reward him or his heir apparent with an opportunity to continue those policies.

Frankly, it appears the middle class will not actually vote for policies that improve their livelihoods or are too disinterested to even submit a ballot.

From a political strategist POV, why would Democrats ever go for progressive policies again when the electorate said 'no thank you'? That's a serious question and one even hypothesized by Heather Cox Richardson (and frankly, I think she's probably right).

 

[mpaer]

From a political strategist POV, why would Democrats ever go for progressive policies again when the electorate said 'no thank you'? That's a serious question and one even hypothesized by Heather Cox Richardson (and frankly, I think she's probably right).

Welll........shit

 

[mpaer]

. There’s no way in hell the average voter was aware of Biden’s progressive policies and chose specifically to reject them.

Hard to fight the knowledge level of most voters I don't pretend to be "better" than those folks But it is frustrating
Its like getting on the Interstate but half the drivers have never driven a car

 

[finesse]

The progressive policies that Biden implemented weren’t ones that were easy to message or run on, frankly. Especially when Biden himself was a God awful communicator and his administration spent years telling people that the economy was good instead of telling people about Biden’s accomplishments re: antitrust, manufacturing or whatever.

And again. Harris did not run on the progressive policies that Biden passed or implemented via federal agencies. She ran away from it.

Biden’s progressive policies were a bandaid over a festering wound. The policies alone don’t fix all the other aspects I and others have talked about in the wake of the election. That is, running candidates with working class authenticity and simple, easily digestible pro-worker message. The Harris campaign’s messaging was muddier than the Mississippi.

I listened to that interview with Stewart and Cox-Richardson. Needless to say, I did not come away convinced by Cox-Richardson’s argument and got the sense that Stewart didn’t either. There’s no way in hell the average voter was aware of Biden’s progressive policies and chose specifically to reject them. So why would the message be to not run on these policies?

The problem is that you just end up with two sides shouting bullshit at each other. That's why I have such a disdain for the media. Publicizing the facts for the information of the public is the role the news claimed was theirs. All of this information was there. All of it was brought up. They promptly abrogated their role. The news went on vacation and let the editors and commentators tell the story. Everybody but the powerful lost. They got what they paid for.

 

[CallMeTyler]

The progressive policies that Biden implemented weren’t ones that were easy to message or run on, frankly. Especially when Biden himself was a God awful communicator and his administration spent years telling people that the economy was good instead of telling people about Biden’s accomplishments re: antitrust, manufacturing or whatever.

And again. Harris did not run on the progressive policies that Biden passed or implemented via federal agencies. She ran away from it.

Biden’s progressive policies were a bandaid over a festering wound. The policies alone don’t fix all the other aspects I and others have talked about in the wake of the election. That is, running candidates with working class authenticity and simple, easily digestible pro-worker message. The Harris campaign’s messaging was muddier than the Mississippi.

I listened to that interview with Stewart and Cox-Richardson. Needless to say, I did not come away convinced by Cox-Richardson’s argument and got the sense that Stewart didn’t either. There’s no way in hell the average voter was aware of Biden’s progressive policies and chose specifically to reject them. So why would the message be to not run on these policies?

"And again. Harris did not run on the progressive policies that Biden passed or implemented via federal agencies. She ran away from it."

This just isn't true.

The key arguments we always here from middle-class America:
"I can't have children because it's too expensive"
"I can't afford a house"
"I need my student loans forgiven"
"I need higher wages"

And yet, we have both Biden and Harris addressing every single key issue listed above directly in their platform and via current policy:

• Restored child tax credits and new tax cuts to help families cover child expenses
• cutting taxes for millions of middle America by expanded earned income tax credits
• first ever tax incentive for building affordable homes for first-time buyers
• $40B in housing expansion
• $175B in forgiven student loans
• Raising the minimum wage

Plenty of people outright rejected these ideas. All would've substantially improved the lives of progressive voters and they're entirely simple, easily-digestible and pro-worker.

 

[CallMeTyler]

I think we have a very different idea of the kinds of policy Democrats should be running on. Simply put, running on more tax breaks and tax incentives is not good enough. Harris rarely mentioned raising the minimum wage and when she did never said how much she would raise it to.

I also forgot to mention the $25,000 down payment for first-time buyers. 2/3rds of renters identify the down payment as the key barrier to buying a home.

If her policies addressed the primary complaints from voters, and you're suggesting the ideas weren't good enough, what's your recommendation?

 

[CallMeTyler]

I’ve laid out my recommendations numerous times over the last week until I’ve been blue in the face. Just go back and read any post I’ve made since Tuesday. I’ve been posting more than anyone not named superrific.

There is a key difference between running on technocratic solutions and running on universal improvements for the everyday lives of working people.

$25,000 down payment assistance isn’t helping people who rent. It isn’t helping people who aren’t close to buying a home. It isn’t even addressing the root issue in the housing crisis, which is supply.

"$25,000 down payment assistance isn’t helping people who rent. It isn’t helping people who aren’t close to buying a home. It isn’t even addressing the root issue in the housing crisis, which is supply."

$25k is absolutely going to help someone buy a home. That's ridiculous to suggest otherwise.

Her plan specifically incentivized builders to build more affordable housing, disrupt the corporate landlord structure by preventing wall street investors from buying up homes, and addressing price fixing through market manipulation. Those policies address supply side issues.

What else would you suggest wrt housing?

 

[CallMeTyler]

Will $25,000 down payment assistance help the person who is renting and unable to buy a home at all? It’s a fine policy, but it’s not one to center a populist presidential campaign on. That’s my point.

I don’t care about the things that are buried in this document that no one read and neither do low info voters. They hear she says in interviews and rallies.

If y’all really think that voters don’t care about progressive policy then what’s your solution? That we just become Republicans? It’s not a strategy, and that’s my biggest frustration point with this.

Man, I've got no beef with you. We're fighting the same fight here.

All I'm saying is that she attempted to cover these topics publicly and nobody outside rally participants or who tuned into specific channels were able to hear her policy proposals. I think the disconnect between what you're saying she did or didn't do is a testament to the challenges facing a progressive administration.

Hell, go watch a single clip of KH discussing her proposal and read the comments. People will literally deny reality even when she's telling them exactly what they want to hear.

 

[DougDaBroadcasta]

I’ve laid out my recommendations numerous times over the last week until I’ve been blue in the face. Just go back and read any post I’ve made since Tuesday. I’ve been posting more than anyone not named superrific.

There is a key difference between running on technocratic solutions and running on universal improvements for the everyday lives of working people.

$25,000 down payment assistance isn’t helping people who rent. It isn’t helping people who aren’t close to buying a home. It isn’t even addressing the root issue in the housing crisis, which is supply.

And throwing the people out of the country who build homes isn't going to fix the supply issue.

Good luck finding white folks and black folks to work outdoors for $7.25 an hour to build homes.

 

[mpaer]

Tp parapharse Bernie on Meet the Press
American are suffering-Groceries, Health Care, Elder Care, Child Care, college expense
Trump gave them an answer We will deport millions of leaches-and then we all have money for us.. a big lie-but-lets try it
And of course Bernie started with the premise that the Billionaire class is going gangbusters-at the expense of the working class. And I guess you can extrapolate Bernies response would be a WAAAYY bigger set of changes than Harriss suggested
But no America is not ready for that

 

[CallMeTyler]

I know we’re on the same side, and that’s why it’s frustrating. I honestly find it hard to express the full breadth of my opinions in a written format, so I’m sorry if doing a bad job of getting across what I’m trying to say.

I know what she said in interviews, I know what she said at rallies. I watched them nonstop since she entered the race because I work in politics, have a degree in political science, and I’m fucking neurotic.

Yes, she ran on home buyers assistance. Yes, she ran on middle-class tax breaks. Yes, she ran on expanding Medicare (though she didn’t talk about this until later in the campaign).

I’m not saying that it was all one thing or all another. Did racism contribute? Yes. Did sexism contribute? Yes. Did misinfo contribute? Yes.

I’m simply of the belief that there is a large enough number of people that were willing to vote for Democrats who either stayed home or voted for Trump.

Part of this was a Joe Biden issue, part of this is a Democratic Party messaging issue. Like it or not, Biden was unpopular and Harris did not seize on the opportunity to separate herself from him. I don’t think Harris was the best messenger for these issues for the reasons a ton of people here have laid out.

You can have a specific policy point in your platform or policy book, but the average voter will not hear about this without consistent messaging from many fronts. The messaging of Harris’ campaign was disjointed and muddy. She seemed to be trying to defend a system that has failed so many while also trying to cast herself as generational change without specifying what that substantive change would be.

It's all good. We're brothers (or sisters) in arms. This is the beginning of the resistance. Naturally everyone is going to be on edge or have a bone to pick because we're all pissed off. I've been waffling between watching the world burn vs helping my community when the struggle kicks in.

It's been a rollercoaster for both of us.

I hope the Democrats can build on this chaos that Trump builds. The mid-terms are a huge opportunity.

 

[mpaer]

I’ve presented what I think the future of the Democratic Party should be. I’d like to pose of question to those of you who think Harris couldn’t win because of misinformation, or racism, or sexism.

Where does this leave the party? How should we run in 2026 and 2028 if the lesson is Americans are too sexist or racist? How should we run if the lesson is Americans actually don’t care about populist policy?

This is a cope out answer But likely the orangeturd cluster%uck of an administration will shift a lot of votes back to the Dems Not policy related. People will suddenly remember and have buyers remorse--- the Chaos. And of course Child Care, Elder Care , college expense , price of eggs-none of that will change for the better

 

[CallMeTyler]

I’ve presented what I think the future of the Democratic Party should be. I’d like to pose of question to those of you who think Harris couldn’t win because of misinformation, or racism, or sexism.

Where does this leave the party? How should we run in 2026 and 2028 if the lesson is Americans are too sexist or racist? How should we run if the lesson is Americans actually don’t care about populist policy and/or populist messaging?

I think a start is for the Democratic party to step away from the Hollywood endorsements and Oprah Winfrey interviews. Those things are great when they're working, but the internet has changed the way a lot of folks access news.

Going to have to humble themselves and go engage with Joe Rogan, get more creative with tweets and TikTok/Insta, build more soundbites that transcend the noise and 24 hour news cycles so ideas "stick" in the psyche of Americans. Start letting younger, progressive party members take lead publicly in promoting the agenda.

 

[CallMeTyler]

I also think Trump not running will help. When a personality like that just absorbs all oxygen in the room and has developed a cult living within another reality entirely, it's really difficult to overcome that even with a deliberate and digestible message.

 

[nycfan]

“… Elsewhere, Anson County, N.C., which is 40% African American, voted GOP for only the second time since Reconstruction. And Bucks County, Pa., an upper-income suburb outside Philadelphia, went Republican for the first time in more than 35 years.

… Across the board, there’s been a rise in the share of paycheck-to-paycheck households since 2019, BofA said. One in four households fits the bill.

… That prompted voters to look for someone to upend the status quo, and they gravitated toward Trump for his tough talk and uncompromising attitude, regardless of how they felt about him personally, Luntz explained.…”

 

[BubbaOtis]

Most Trump voters I know say they based their vote on "policy over personality." They don't view "progressive" policies as creating real progress, the opposite in many cases. As pointed out previously, given that the housing issue is a result of lack of supply, goosing demand with a $25k supplement actually makes things worse. Many policies are also viewed as being part of zero sum games; they hurt someone else in the process of helping one segment. Those trading up in housing are put at an unfair, in their minds, disadvantage. Kamala's desperate late proposed policies to attract Black male voters is another example. Why give forgivable loans only to Black men? Why do Black men need a separate regulatory framework for digital assets? Why not Black women? Why not Native Americans? Why not everybody?

https://kamalaharris.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/FMfcgzQXJZxzLGgcKmSNQSXCRKXShwxJ.pdf

They don't like Trump on a personal level, he's just the only alternative. Going back to LBJ and the "Great Society" movement, they've seen government programs that perpetuate problems rather than solve them. I think the racism/sexism element is overplayed also. The candidacy was admittedly Trump's from the start, but the closest Republican opponent was an Indian American woman who won early primaries.

Analysis: How Nikki Haley's bid for the White House made history

Haley is one of a handful of high-profile women to have sought the Republican presidential nomination and the first Asian-American woman to ever do so.

www.pbs.org

Overwhelmingly exit polls cite economic issues, not Trump's rants on illegal immigrants eating cats or the other dumb stuff. I will admit that I'm surprised the abortion issue didn't carry more weight. If Democrats want to enact change on abortion they need to do it at the state level obviously.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

I also think Trump not running will help. When a personality like that just absorbs all oxygen in the room and has developed a cult living within another reality entirely, it's really difficult to overcome that even with a deliberate and digestible message.

Yep. One thing I mentioned during the campaign is that Trump does have a real talent for stealing the spotlight and keeping it off his opponents. And he does it partly by saying outrageous stuff and all of his other antics to dominate social and legacy news media, but it doesn't seem to hurt him and and it means that his opponents can't get any airtime. This year Kamala dominated the news cycle for awhile when she first became and candidate and then chose Walz as her running mate and Trump during that time seemed lost and exhausted, and Kamala seemed to have momentum. But then he regained the media spotlight with the whole ridiculous "Haitian immigrants taking over Ohio towns and eating white people's pets" nonsense, and that was it. Kamala virtually disappeared for long stretches of the campaign, and the focus was entirely on Trump again. Assuming they don't change the Constitution to allow him to run again, at least Democrats won't be facing that again - I just don't see a JD Vance or Josh Hawley type having Trump's skill in that area.