Gavin Newsom addresses the nation

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Zoo_View said:
Correct.

Who among Southern/Midwestern “Christian,” heterosexual white males who are likely to run as Democrats have the name recognition Trump had in 2015?

Which ones have been baiting the Democratic base for 7-10 years as Trump baited the MAGA base with claims that Obama isn’t an American?

Jeff Jackson is not catching fire and becoming the 2028 Democratic nominee.

Marc Cuban is 67 TODAY. Jon Stewart is a 62-year-old Jewish Yankee.

Who are the 30 million white Christian males from the South/Mid-West who are candidates for POTUS?
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Again, past is not prologue. You don't have to replicate Trump's strategy to win in 2028. That said, let's start with a few name politicians:

1. Matt Meyer
2. Josh Green
3. Andy Beshear
4. Michael Bennet
5. John Fetterman
6. Martin Heinrich
7. Chris Murphy
8. Roy Cooper

Any and all of these would be a much smarter pick than Gavin Newsom -- at least in terms of electability. The best candidate is the one with the fewest negatives because that is how general elections are won. 90% of the vote is baked in based on party affiliation. The remaining 10% are usually voting against the other candidate. Obviously, Fetterman carries the most baggage from this list, and would be the first I would jettison, but he would have a much easier time winning than Gavin.
 
Calheel said:
Again, past is not prologue. You don't have to replicate Trump's strategy to win in 2028. That said, let's start with a few name politicians:

1. Matt Meyer
2. Josh Green
3. Andy Beshear
4. Michael Bennet
5. John Fetterman
6. Martin Heinrich
7. Chris Murphy
8. Roy Cooper

Any and all of these would be a much smarter pick than Gavin Newsom -- at least in terms of electability. The best candidate is the one with the fewest negatives because that is how general elections are won. 90% of the vote is baked in based on party affiliation. The remaining 10% are usually voting against the other candidate. Obviously, Fetterman carries the most baggage from this list, and would be the first I would jettison, but he would have a much easier time winning than Gavin.
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Fetterman wouldn’t have an easier time.

He’s literally persona non grata in the Dem party, and young voters hate him. His approval rating is at ~40% in his own state, partly thanks to Rs supporting him for being a thorn in Dems side.
 
Calheel said:
Again, past is not prologue. You don't have to replicate Trump's strategy to win in 2028. That said, let's start with a few name politicians:

1. Matt Meyer
2. Josh Green
3. Andy Beshear
4. Michael Bennet
5. John Fetterman
6. Martin Heinrich
7. Chris Murphy
8. Roy Cooper

Any and all of these would be a much smarter pick than Gavin Newsom -- at least in terms of electability. The best candidate is the one with the fewest negatives because that is how general elections are won. 90% of the vote is baked in based on party affiliation. The remaining 10% are usually voting against the other candidate. Obviously, Fetterman carries the most baggage from this list, and would be the first I would jettison, but he would have a much easier time winning than Gavin.
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Fetterman? I respect your thoughts always but damn, that's a head scratcher. Id vote for JD Vance before id vote for Fetterman and I would cut my own dick off before voting for Vance.
 
EyeballKid said:
Funny you mention Jeff Jackson. NY Times just did a profile of him last week. He’s got over 2 million followers on TilTok and a million on Instagram.

Seems like he’s starting to catch fire a bit. Probably more suited for governor first, but ya never know.

www.nytimes.com

The Secret to One Swing State Democrat’s Rise? Wonky TikTok Videos.

Jeff Jackson was elected to attorney general in North Carolina the same year that President Trump won the state for the third time. Supporters see lessons for Democrats in Mr. Jackson’s rise.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
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He likely can’t run for Governor until 2032…….he’ll be 49……even before he’s able to become Governor, he’s aging out of the “cool, young guy” era.

Cooper has the Senate nomination in 2026 and if he wins, 2032.

Jackson can challenge Ted Budd in 2028; if he does, he gives up the AG spot. If he does, he might get the keynote spot in 2028……and, if he’s Obamaesque, leapfrog everyone for the 2032 POTUS nomination.

Back to my point, just because some male is white, straight, hetero, Midwestern/Southern doesn’t mean he’s a good candidate…..currently we have one…….the guy who was helped immensely by his family name in bumfuck Kentucky.

His family name matters in NC, MI, GA, NV, WI, PA, etc…….no it doesn’t.

If he has “it,” he has “it.” If he doesn’t, being white, male, hetero, “Christian,” Southern/Midwestern won’t help him find “it.”

Al Gore was the anti-it. Ditto for Kerry and Hillary. Oddly, boring and steady played Biden’s way in 2020.

Clinton had “IT.” Obama redefined “IT.”

Oh yeah, I can’t defined “it.”

Unfortunately, for MAGAts, Trump has “IT.” Reagan, despite being a fraud and fake had “it” among Reaganauts.
 
Zoo_View said:
He likely can’t run for Governor until 2032…….he’ll be 49……even before he’s able to become Governor, he’s aging out of the “cool, young guy” era.

Cooper has the Senate nomination in 2026 and if he wins, 2032.

Jackson can challenge Ted Budd in 2028; if he does, he gives up the AG spot. If he does, he might get the keynote spot in 2028……and, if he’s Obamaesque, leapfrog everyone for the 2032 POTUS nomination.

Back to my point, just because some male is white, straight, hetero, Midwestern/Southern doesn’t mean he’s a good candidate…..currently we have one…….the guy who was helped immensely by his family name in bumfuck Kentucky.

His family name matters in NC, MI, GA, NV, WI, PA, etc…….no it doesn’t.

If he has “it,” he has “it.” If he doesn’t, being white, male, hetero, “Christian,” Southern/Midwestern won’t help him find “it.”

Al Gore was the anti-it. Ditto for Kerry and Hillary. Oddly, boring and steady played Biden’s way in 2020.

Clinton had “IT.” Obama redefined “IT.”

Oh yeah, I can’t defined “it.”

Unfortunately, for MAGAts, Trump has “IT.” Reagan, despite being a fraud and fake had “it” among Reaganauts.
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You're theory is that independents vote for a candidate. My theory is that independents vote against a candidate.

Obama had "it" but he also benefitted tremendously from anti-Bush sentiment. Gore did not have "it" but neither did GWB. But Gore suffered from Clinton fatigue.

I don't think you need an "it" in an anti-Trump environment. I think you need the safe candidate. If we could replicate 2000 Gore in 2028, he would be an ideal candidate.
 
Zoo_View said:
He likely can’t run for Governor until 2032…….he’ll be 49……even before he’s able to become Governor, he’s aging out of the “cool, young guy” era.

Cooper has the Senate nomination in 2026 and if he wins, 2032.

Jackson can challenge Ted Budd in 2028; if he does, he gives up the AG spot. If he does, he might get the keynote spot in 2028……and, if he’s Obamaesque, leapfrog everyone for the 2032 POTUS nomination.

Back to my point, just because some male is white, straight, hetero, Midwestern/Southern doesn’t mean he’s a good candidate…..currently we have one…….the guy who was helped immensely by his family name in bumfuck Kentucky.

His family name matters in NC, MI, GA, NV, WI, PA, etc…….no it doesn’t.

If he has “it,” he has “it.” If he doesn’t, being white, male, hetero, “Christian,” Southern/Midwestern won’t help him find “it.”

Al Gore was the anti-it. Ditto for Kerry and Hillary. Oddly, boring and steady played Biden’s way in 2020.

Clinton had “IT.” Obama redefined “IT.”

Oh yeah, I can’t defined “it.”

Unfortunately, for MAGAts, Trump has “IT.” Reagan, despite being a fraud and fake had “it” among Reaganauts.
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Want to know something crazy? I have the "it" youre referring to. I know that sounds ridiculously narcissistic, but it is true. Its how I make my living. I can have any audience of any size eating out of my hand in 3 minutes. It's just a gift that im lucky to have.

I don't think I could ever run for office though. Im too hot headed and the first time someone went after my spouse or family, id berate them into nonexisentence on national tv.
 
Calheel said:
Again, past is not prologue. You don't have to replicate Trump's strategy to win in 2028. That said, let's start with a few name politicians:

1. Matt Meyer
2. Josh Green
3. Andy Beshear
4. Michael Bennet
5. John Fetterman
6. Martin Heinrich
7. Chris Murphy
8. Roy Cooper

Any and all of these would be a much smarter pick than Gavin Newsom -- at least in terms of electability. The best candidate is the one with the fewest negatives because that is how general elections are won. 90% of the vote is baked in based on party affiliation. The remaining 10% are usually voting against the other candidate. Obviously, Fetterman carries the most baggage from this list, and would be the first I would jettison, but he would have a much easier time winning than Gavin.
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Let’s see…..40’s/50’s…….Christian…….Southerner/Midwesterner……straight….male…
  • Matt Meyer - Jewish. Governor of Delaware (not a Southern or Midwestern state)
  • Josh Green. Jewish. Governor of Hawaii. How Southern or Midwestern is Hawaii?
  • Andy Beshear. He’s white, sorta Southern and sorta Midwestern. Straight. He’s benefited from a family name that matters NONE outside Kentucky. YAY!
  • Michael Bennet. Colorado Senator. He’d be a 4-term incumbent by 2028. Non-observant Jew. Colorado is not Southern. It’s not Midwestern.
  • John Fetterman? GTFOOH!
  • Martin Heinrich. Hey! He’s a Lutheran! He’s a Democrat in NEW MEXICO. He’s never won more than 55%+ in a General Election. In NEW MEXICO. New Mexico is where in the Midwest or South?
  • Chris Murphy. Connecticut. He’s a non-observant “Christian.” Connecticut is pretty damn Yankee.
  • Roy Cooper. Roy is white bread personified and unknown to 80-90-95% of Democrats. Cooper is 67-68 years-old TODAY.
Seriously, that’s your list of heterosexual, “Christian,” white males from the South/Midwest who are in their 40’s/50’s?
 
Calheel said:
You're theory is that independents vote for a candidate. My theory is that independents vote against a candidate.

Obama had "it" but he also benefitted tremendously from anti-Bush sentiment. Gore did not have "it" but neither did GWB. But Gore suffered from Clinton fatigue.

I don't think you need an "it" in an anti-Trump environment. I think you need the safe candidate. If we could replicate 2000 Gore in 2028, he would be an ideal candidate.
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You’re making a HUGE ASSUMPTION in stating that I think Independents “vote for a candidate.”

My view is that “Independents” are full of shit and vote for whoever they think will benefit themselves. It’s irrational and arbitrary and they’ve been doing so for decades. Promise “Independents” tax-cuts and they’re yours….even if they don’t see the tax-cuts.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Want to know something crazy? I have the "it" youre referring to. I know that sounds ridiculously narcissistic, but it is true. Its how I make my living. I can have any audience of any size eating out of my hand in 3 minutes. It's just a gift that im lucky to have.

I don't think I could ever run for office though. Im too hot headed and the first time someone went after my spouse or family, id berate them into nonexisentence on national tv.
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Right.

You’re selling both yourself and your process. You have some videos up on YouTube. If it’s your videos I’ve seen, you have “AN” “it.”

You don’t have Obama’s or Clinton’s or Reagan’s “it.” Dubya had a minor “it.” “I’d like to have a beer with him.” Even though he no longer drank.

Dole, Gore, and Kerry had “negative its;” Romney had maybe a positive “it” with Country Club Republicans.

Hillary had the biggest negative IT.
 
Zoo_View said:
Let’s see…..40’s/50’s…….Christian…….Southerner/Midwesterner……straight….male…
  • Matt Meyer - Jewish. Governor of Delaware (not a Southern or Midwestern state)
  • Josh Green. Jewish. Governor of Hawaii. How Southern or Midwestern is Hawaii?
  • Andy Beshear. He’s white, sorta Southern and sorta Midwestern. Straight. He’s benefited from a family name that matters NONE outside Kentucky. YAY!
  • Michael Bennet. Colorado Senator. He’d be a 4-term incumbent by 2028. Non-observant Jew. Colorado is not Southern. It’s not Midwestern.
  • John Fetterman? GTFOOH!
  • Martin Heinrich. Hey! He’s a Lutheran! He’s a Democrat in NEW MEXICO. He’s never won more than 55%+ in a General Election. In NEW MEXICO. New Mexico is where in the Midwest or South?
  • Chris Murphy. Connecticut. He’s a non-observant “Christian.” Connecticut is pretty damn Yankee.
  • Roy Cooper. Roy is white bread personified and unknown to 80-90-95% of Democrats. Cooper is 67-68 years-old TODAY.
Seriously, that’s your list of heterosexual, “Christian,” white males from the South/Midwest who are in their 40’s/50’s?
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My Jew decoder ring is not as good as yours. So, we will need to strike those.
I did expand my South/Midwest definition a few posts up.
Non-observant Christian is fine.
White bred personified is fine.
New Mexico is fine.
Connecticut is fine (the only states where that would matter are NC and GA).
You seem really stuck on the Southern point, which is the least important issue of all.
Age is also not critical. 40s-50s would be ideal (Carter, Clinton, Obama) but it is not a deal-breaker.

Part of the problem is that you insist that the candidate be well-known and well-funded right now. If you are going to limit your potential pool in that manner, then you are going to miss a whole lot of people who could win the general election.
 
Calheel said:
My Jew decoder ring is not as good as yours. So, we will need to strike those.
I did expand my South/Midwest definition a few posts up.
Non-observant Christian is fine.
White bred personified is fine.
New Mexico is fine.
Connecticut is fine (the only states where that would matter are NC and GA).
You seem really stuck on the Southern point, which is the least important issue of all.
Age is also not critical. 40s-50s would be ideal (Carter, Clinton, Obama) but it is not a deal-breaker.

Part of the problem is that you insist that the candidate be well-known and well-funded right now. If you are going to limit your potential pool in that manner, then you are going to miss a whole lot of people who could win the general election.
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My “Jew decoder ring”

I’d never use that phrase. EVER.

My “decoder ring” was to look up each name you listed. Well, I didn’t look up Fetterman. That’s all I did. I looked up the bios of the ten white men you listed.

It wasn’t an impressive list.

Not that it matters…..they weren’t from the South or Midwest.
 
Calheel said:
Again, past is not prologue. You don't have to replicate Trump's strategy to win in 2028. That said, let's start with a few name politicians:

1. Matt Meyer
2. Josh Green
3. Andy Beshear
4. Michael Bennet
5. John Fetterman
6. Martin Heinrich
7. Chris Murphy
8. Roy Cooper

Any and all of these would be a much smarter pick than Gavin Newsom -- at least in terms of electability. The best candidate is the one with the fewest negatives because that is how general elections are won. 90% of the vote is baked in based on party affiliation. The remaining 10% are usually voting against the other candidate. Obviously, Fetterman carries the most baggage from this list, and would be the first I would jettison, but he would have a much easier time winning than Gavin.
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Fetterman? You're struggling for examples when you include him on any list other than "most likely to be primaried."

And let's be honest: None of those guys carry enough weight politically to meet the moment. Beshear, Cooper, and Murphy are all excellent, but none of them have the charisma or presence to win the presidency.

Newsom is currently the only politician willing to go head to head with Trump. He's the one out there right now taking the fight to Trump at a time when ALL of our Democratic politicians should be doing it.

My choice is Pete Buttigieg, but if we're going to lean into the white hetero archetype for safety's sake, then Newsom at this moment is the guy because he's the only one willing to be the guy.
 
Dem Nominee just has to be able to beat Vance, correct?
Unless Pubs successfully get a Trump on the ballot, JD is the opponent, no? (Perhaps, perhaps not. Who was Dan Quayle anyway?)

Somebody mentioned Clinton “fatigue”… and Bush 2 had such a horrible tenure that even a complete unknown black guy with a Muslim name won easily. Bush “fatigue”.

Think about that. Aside from the keynote speech at a convention, a one term Senator, a complete unknown black guy with “Hussein” as a middle name won the Presidency. Wow! Bush 2 had shit the bed that badly. Granted Obama was a great orator which gave him the “it” factor mentioned.

I think Trump 2.0 could possibly leave the country in as bad of shape as W had it in 2008. I think the country will suffer from Trump fatigue, leaving JD with an uphill climb. Recall W’s VP wasn’t the Pub nominee in 2008 (What was his name?).

It’s possible a complete unknown can make it happen for the Dems. But it’s probably got to be somebody that comes close to fitting Calheel’s description. That said, I think the nominee can be in his 60’s (not just 40’s/50s) and can be from a State outside of the South or midWest.

I’m ok with most all the names bandied about thus far - except Fetterman
 
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