Harris Vegas rally

This is great for Jacky Rosen. Unfortunately, Nevada basically doesn't matter for EC purposes. Thanks electoral college!

Kamala doesn't need Nevada if she wins the blue wall states. If she fails to win one, Nevada ain't gonna do it. If she fails to win Wisky but wins Zona, then Nevada doesn't matter. If she wins Arizona and loses PA, then Nevada won't be enough. The only scenario is if Kamala wins Wisky, PA and AZ and loses MI. Then NV decides the election. That seems remote to me. There are other far-fetched combos, I'm guessing, involving losing a blue wall state and winning a state like GA or NC -- I didn't run those scenarios, but they seem improbable.

Don't get me wrong -- it's absolutely worth it right now to be rallying in NV even if there wasn't a Senate race there. Excitement is excitement. Gets on the news, gets donors fired up, etc. It's just that the EC makes everything so sad.
 
Oh, good, disinformation wars. That "Ezra" thing is obviously misleading. I don't know who Colin Rugg is. From what I saw on that video, it looks like a small % of the seats were not available. Basically, they didn't want to deal with the uppermost deck. I'd estimate that there are 3-4K seats at most. It looks like 15 rows.
 
superrific said:
This is great for Jacky Rosen. Unfortunately, Nevada basically doesn't matter for EC purposes. Thanks electoral college!

Kamala doesn't need Nevada if she wins the blue wall states. If she fails to win one, Nevada ain't gonna do it. If she fails to win Wisky but wins Zona, then Nevada doesn't matter. If she wins Arizona and loses PA, then Nevada won't be enough. The only scenario is if Kamala wins Wisky, PA and AZ and loses MI. Then NV decides the election. That seems remote to me. There are other far-fetched combos, I'm guessing, involving losing a blue wall state and winning a state like GA or NC -- I didn't run those scenarios, but they seem improbable.

Don't get me wrong -- it's absolutely worth it right now to be rallying in NV even if there wasn't a Senate race there. Excitement is excitement. Gets on the news, gets donors fired up, etc. It's just that the EC makes everything so sad.
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She ABSOLUTELY needs NV in case she doesn't win NE2 or there's a faithless elector
 
superrific said:
Oh, good, disinformation wars. That "Ezra" thing is obviously misleading. I don't know who Colin Rugg is. From what I saw on that video, it looks like a small % of the seats were not available. Basically, they didn't want to deal with the uppermost deck. I'd estimate that there are 3-4K seats at most. It looks like 15 rows.
Click to expand...
Colin Rugg is MAGA. 30 seconds of his Twitter feed is all you need.
 
superrific said:
This is great for Jacky Rosen. Unfortunately, Nevada basically doesn't matter for EC purposes. Thanks electoral college!

Kamala doesn't need Nevada if she wins the blue wall states. If she fails to win one, Nevada ain't gonna do it. If she fails to win Wisky but wins Zona, then Nevada doesn't matter. If she wins Arizona and loses PA, then Nevada won't be enough. The only scenario is if Kamala wins Wisky, PA and AZ and loses MI. Then NV decides the election. That seems remote to me. There are other far-fetched combos, I'm guessing, involving losing a blue wall state and winning a state like GA or NC -- I didn't run those scenarios, but they seem improbable.

Don't get me wrong -- it's absolutely worth it right now to be rallying in NV even if there wasn't a Senate race there. Excitement is excitement. Gets on the news, gets donors fired up, etc. It's just that the EC makes everything so sad.
Click to expand...
Nevada is vital as it gives a buffer
 
quakerdevil said:
She ABSOLUTELY needs NV in case she doesn't win NE2 or there's a faithless elector
Click to expand...
There isn't going to be a faithless elector. Most states don't permit it and any miscast votes can be nullified. Recent SCOTUS ruling on that.

That's a good point about NE2 but my understanding is that winning NV and losing that district is unlikely.
 
uncjhodges said:
Nevada is vital as it gives a buffer
Click to expand...
Against what? I ran through the possibilities. It's a buffer against losing MI and winning AZ. I forgot about NE2, which I guess is something. Biden won there by 6 in 2020, which I think exceeded his margin in NV -- but it's also true that past is not necessarily prologue. I had thought the NE2 margin was more like 10.
 
superrific said:
This is great for Jacky Rosen. Unfortunately, Nevada basically doesn't matter for EC purposes. Thanks electoral college!

Kamala doesn't need Nevada if she wins the blue wall states. If she fails to win one, Nevada ain't gonna do it. If she fails to win Wisky but wins Zona, then Nevada doesn't matter. If she wins Arizona and loses PA, then Nevada won't be enough. The only scenario is if Kamala wins Wisky, PA and AZ and loses MI. Then NV decides the election. That seems remote to me. There are other far-fetched combos, I'm guessing, involving losing a blue wall state and winning a state like GA or NC -- I didn't run those scenarios, but they seem improbable.

Don't get me wrong -- it's absolutely worth it right now to be rallying in NV even if there wasn't a Senate race there. Excitement is excitement. Gets on the news, gets donors fired up, etc. It's just that the EC makes everything so sad.
Click to expand...
Hopefully she wins them all and sets a no more MAGA CULT precedent.
 
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