Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

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Whether it’s football or basketball, I start looking at the roster about Labor Day.

Before that, I figure they’re still free agents.
 
So national media picked up on the $14M roster price? lol

It does seem like too much when you consider it's mostly going to 7 players

Wilson - Veesaar - Evans - Bogavac are probably the "overpays"

But all different circumstances. Hard to knock those adds except maybe Evans
 
Heelsandeers said:
So national media picked up on the $14M roster price? lol

It does seem like too much when you consider it's mostly going to 7 players

Wilson - Veesaar - Evans - Bogavac are probably the "overpays"

But all different circumstances. Hard to knock those adds except maybe Evans
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The schools that are getting good players are all overpaying. That’s the beauty of free agency for the employee.
 
Bigs23 said:
The schools that are getting good players are all overpaying.
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Not necessarily. I think the main difference is who UNC spent most on is mostly unproven

Programs aren't spending big on high school players with few exceptions and Evans is a question mark as your primary guard

And your third guy off the bench is? The depth or star power isn't there unless Wilson really is that guy. Maybe Veesaar can be
 
Heelsandeers said:
Not necessarily. I think the main difference is who UNC spent most on is mostly unproven

Programs aren't spending big on high school players with few exceptions and Evans is a question mark as your primary guard

And your third guy off the bench is? The depth or star power isn't there unless Wilson really is that guy. Maybe Veesaar can be
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How would we know? Give some examples of schools not overpaying.

Of course the market is setting the price so maybe no one is getting overpaid. It’s just the price of doing business.
 
Does anyone else see Luka as a potential 1st team All-ACC player? I have a Knecht vibe about him -- not that their games are similar (I don't really know) but the idea of a guy sort of coming late onto everyone's radars.

This guy was 5th in his pro league (Adriatic) in scoring, on 49% from 2 and 40% from 3. He was 3rd in effective FG%. The Adriatic is the same one that produced Jokic. It's not the best league in Europe, but it's decent. Its representative in Euroleague this year finished 12th out of 18 but with a positive point differential.

I love his shooting numbers. He's 21 in a league where most of the star players are in their late 20s or 30s. I was hoping that maybe he could play a bit of point, and maybe he can but his assist TO ratio was 2.3:1.9, so he wasn't doing it on his pro team and it just might not be his game. Still, he has to be able to open the floor for our inside players.
 
donbosco said:
That's kind of the Major League Baseball model at present. And one of the reasons why the Orioles are currently struggling.
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The Orioles are struggling because all players are sucking ass. They've got at least three players way behind their pace from last year, and a couple of their starters have been among the worst players in MLB this year.

It's sort of like the Braves this year, to be honest. I mean, the Braves have dealt with a bit more injury/suspension issues, but injuries aren't why Michael Harris has a .590 OPS (God that's awful) or Ozzie Albies at under .700. Or Kelenic is in AAA.
 
Bigs23 said:
How would we know? Give some examples of schools not overpaying.
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How would we know? Well you're the one who made the assertion that "everyone" is

The numbers I've heard floated for starting caliber players in P5 this cycle has been in the range of $1-1.5M

For the sake of it let's say UNC has 7 players of that caliber and it's $1.5M. Where is that other $3.5M going?

Overpaying for 1-2 players isn't the same as overpaying for most of your rotation
 
Heelsandeers said:
How would we know? Well you're the one who made the assertion that "everyone" is

The numbers I've heard floated for starting caliber players in P5 this cycle has been in the range of $1-1.5M

For the sake of it let's say UNC has 7 players of that caliber and it's $1.5M. Where is that other $3.5M going?

Overpaying for 1-2 players isn't the same as overpaying for most of your rotation
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Well, maybe we want to be better than the average P5 school. I'll bet Caleb Wilson commanded more than 1-1.5M. Stevenson and Vessaar too.
 
superrific said:
Does anyone else see Luka as a potential 1st team All-ACC player? I have a Knecht vibe about him -- not that their games are similar (I don't really know) but the idea of a guy sort of coming late onto everyone's radars.

This guy was 5th in his pro league (Adriatic) in scoring, on 49% from 2 and 40% from 3. He was 3rd in effective FG%. The Adriatic is the same one that produced Jokic. It's not the best league in Europe, but it's decent. Its representative in Euroleague this year finished 12th out of 18 but with a positive point differential.

I love his shooting numbers. He's 21 in a league where most of the star players are in their late 20s or 30s. I was hoping that maybe he could play a bit of point, and maybe he can but his assist TO ratio was 2.3:1.9, so he wasn't doing it on his pro team and it just might not be his game. Still, he has to be able to open the floor for our inside players.
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Seems well within the range of possible outcomes. Really like his age and the fact he's a true professional

And on a team where scoring could be an issue, he will have every opportunity to up numbers

I think his skillset given team needs was as good as they could've found at this stage of recruiting
 
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Heelsandeers said:
$1.5M is a very generous estimate imo

I doubt if most average teams will have anywhere close to 7 players earning that much
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Well, we don't know specifically, but the guy was a late commit to the Heels after being recruited by UK. He had many suitors. There was probably a bidding war.
 
superrific said:
Well, we don't know specifically, but the guy was a late commit to the Heels after being recruited by UK. He had many suitors. There was probably a bidding war.
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He almost certainly got upwards of $2M and is one of the primary reasons the roster ends up at $14M

There are a number of freshman you could point to last season and say they were worth that much. At the same time if Wilson ends up closer to Flory Bidunga than Derik Queen it becomes harder to justify

Which gets back to the roster being unproven, whether in role, level of competition, or both, and why $14M is surprising. There's no PJ Haggerty, Donovan Dent, or Lendeborg you can point to and easily understand how you end up there
 
Heelsandeers said:
He almost certainly got upwards of $2M and is one of the primary reasons the roster ends up at $14M

There are a number of freshman you could point to last season and say they were worth that much. At the same time if Wilson ends up closer to Flory Bidunga than Derik Queen it becomes harder to justify

Which gets back to the roster being unproven, whether in role, level of competition, or both, and why $14M is surprising. There's no PJ Haggerty, Donovan Dent, or Lendeborg you can point to and easily understand how you end up there
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I thought by generous estimate you were saying I was exaggerating. Now I think you meant the opposite, correct? I was underestimating.

Teams have been using unproven players since the beginning of college basketball. It's part of the game. I get that you think we spent too much, but we got several high potential players. If they work out, this team could be really fucking good. High upside, lower downside.
 
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