Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

[Calheel]

Do they outperform when signing free agents, or are they just smarter?

The one team with an advantage appears to be the Lakers, because media industry. I've not seen any real evidence that home market plays much of a role in those leagues. One supposes that it rules some places out -- it's been forever since Indiana signed a top free agent -- but for the most part, I think money mostly rules.

The system will likely change, I agree, but at the moment, I don't see UNC having a significant competitive edge due to historical success. Imagine being a 17 year old kid. Alabama offers you $2M. UNC offers $1.8 million but you get to play on court where Antawn Jamison, Tyler Hansbrough and Vince Carter once plied their trades. I'd imagine the response would be "who's that -- I'll take the money."

Unless you have no NBA future, I do not see a $200k difference being that important. In fact, we apparently outbid Bama last year for a big and he went to Bama anyway because he thought it was a better fit for him.

 

[SnoopRob]

Why would the obvious conclusion make me uncomfortable?

When was the last time the Knicks signed a big free agent? They thought they could get someone in 2010 -- the big names went to Miami or resigned. In 2015, they swung for big free agents and ended up with Robin Lopez. Durant didn't even give them a meeting when he was on the market.

The history of the New York Knicks' free agent signings | Sporting News Canada

Will the Knicks land a big free agent this summer?

www.sportingnews.com

Google tells me that, aside from Brunson, their biggest free agent signing in the past decade was Hartenstein. They thought they could get Durant in 2015 but he

They also get players to agree to trades there that those same players wouldn't go to Charlotte or other smaller markets. Getting OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and KAT via trades has been huge for them in terms of team building. And they're able to easily re-sign their free agents (like Anunoby) instead of watching them want to leave for bigger markets. Their recent upswing began when they named Leon Rose (LeBron James' former agent - among others - and a driving force behind creating the LBJ/DWade/Bosh team in Miami) as their President. Do you think most teams in the NBA get Leon Rose to consider being their President or do the Knicks get that in large part because they're in NYC? It's because they're in NYC.

My memory is that you've been a poster that largely blames "changes to the system" for Carolina Basketball's issues over the past few seasons. If I remembered that incorrectly, then I withdraw my remark about the conclusion of program management being Carolina Basketball's biggest issue likely making you uncomfortable.

 

[superrific]

They also get players to agree to trades there that those same players wouldn't go to Charlotte or other smaller markets. Getting OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and KAT via trades has been huge for them in terms of team building. And they're able to easily re-sign their free agents (like Anunoby) instead of watching them want to leave for bigger markets. Their recent upswing began when they named Leon Rose (LeBron James' former agent - among others - and a driving force behind creating the LBJ/DWade/Bosh team in Miami) as their President. Do you think most teams in the NBA get Leon Rose to consider being their President or do the Knicks get that in large part because they're in NYC? It's because they're in NYC.

My memory is that you've been a poster that largely blames "changes to the system" for Carolina Basketball's issues over the past few seasons. If I remembered that incorrectly, then I withdraw my remark about the conclusion of program management being Carolina Basketball's biggest issue likely making you uncomfortable.

1. I don't know. Players don't really have all that much choice as to where they go. Re-signing free agents isn't really about cachet anyway; the current team can offer more money, which is why most big names don't hit free agency. The Knicks can afford to pay luxury tax because of their market, but I see no evidence that the name means anything.

When you say that it's NYC doing the selling, that's of course different than the Knicks doing the selling and the Knicks, not NYC, are the better comparison for the Tar Heels.

2. I don't spend much time thinking or talking about all the factors that drive the BB program's success or lack thereof. My point has mostly been that it's really hard to evaluate performance when everything is in such dramatic flux.

Changes to the system have definitely decreased my interest in the end product, which is what I think most of my bellyaching is about.

I do think that UNC has struggled mightily with our recruiting from small schools. Tenn got Knecht and we ended up with Cade Tyson (a year later but still). UConn's starting backcourt on its NC teams were transfers from schools like Coastal Carolina or LIU; we got Keeling and Justin Pierce. We did well in the P5 transfer market (Manek, Ingram, Cormac) but we haven't been finding the gems like other programs have.

I don't know if that's a small sample size issue or a program weakness. Either way, it has been a relative failure, and the increased importance of that type of recruiting has contributed to relatively poor results.

 

[SnoopRob]

Who said a million dollar check? But anyway, look at the fucking salaries in the NBA today. I think the average salary was 12 million this past year. Add endorsement money and there's plenty of spare change to throw around. Not to mention, a guy like Danny Green could get a TV job any time he wants.

You're right about most schools, but I was talking about UNC and some blue bloods like KU or UK who don't have obvious billionaire support.

DG made a little over $100m in the NBA in his career. After paying an agent and taxes, he'd be lucky to see half of that in real money. He's also 37 years old and wants to not only live a nice life but also set up his kids (if he has any) and other family, as well. His earning potential isn't likely great for the rest of his career (TV doesn't pay a huge amount unless you're doing 80 hours a week like Stephen A. or Pat McAfee) and so he's got stretch what he's earned for 50(?) more years plus leave a great inheritance to those around him while allowing compound interest to grow that money. How much do you think he's going to be able to give on a year over year basis to Carolina Basketball NIL?

Let's say it's even as high as $500k annually he would give (and I doubt it is), Carolina Basketball would need 30 such players to give that amount EVERY YEAR to have the ~$15m NIL budget we're believed to have spent this year. And we don't have 30 Danny Greens in our alumni base.

The real potential game-changer for Carolina Basketball, from the alumni ranks, is MJ. He has the kind of FU money and sustainable income (est. $300m from Jordan Brand in 2024) that could allow him to give a substantial amount every year without drastically affecting his bottom line. But we'll have to see what happens there.

Every other former player, even with the best of intentions, is unlikely to have the accumulated wealth to be able to make a huge difference to Carolina Basketball via NIL unless they're willing to pour a significant amount of their wealth into the effort.

 

[SnoopRob]

1. I don't know. Players don't really have all that much choice as to where they go. Re-signing free agents isn't really about cachet anyway; the current team can offer more money, which is why most big names don't hit free agency. The Knicks can afford to pay luxury tax because of their market, but I see no evidence that the name means anything.

When you say that it's NYC doing the selling, that's of course different than the Knicks doing the selling and the Knicks, not NYC, are the better comparison for the Tar Heels.

2. I don't spend much time thinking or talking about all the factors that drive the BB program's success or lack thereof. My point has mostly been that it's really hard to evaluate performance when everything is in such dramatic flux.

Changes to the system have definitely decreased my interest in the end product, which is what I think most of my bellyaching is about.

I do think that UNC has struggled mightily with our recruiting from small schools. Tenn got Knecht and we ended up with Cade Tyson (a year later but still). UConn's starting backcourt on its NC teams were transfers from schools like Coastal Carolina or LIU; we got Keeling and Justin Pierce. We did well in the P5 transfer market (Manek, Ingram, Cormac) but we haven't been finding the gems like other programs have.

I don't know if that's a small sample size issue or a program weakness. Either way, it has been a relative failure, and the increased importance of that type of recruiting has contributed to relatively poor results.

1. Players in the NBA have a HUGE choice where they go, especially the better players. Even in trades all they have to do is let it be known they'll refuse to re-sign with the team that trades for them and the trade falls through. The NBA is a player-driven league and the players hold much of the power. And, yes, the reason the Knicks can get these players is, in large part, NYC and MSG, but that's always been the case. They're a top 5/6 all-time NBA team because they're in NYC and they have a long tradition that attracts players. The Knicks have NYC & MSG, we have Dean Smith and the tradition he built (and Roy continued). Those are where the advantages for each team began and it is up to current leadership to best utilize those advantages.

2. UNC has struggled with recruiting in recent years against the very best of the best (UK, dook, KU) and a few hot teams (Bama, Auburn, now BYU, etc), but we've still been more talented than the vast majority of other teams in the country. Outside of perhaps a half-dozen schools, almost any coach out there would have traded their talent for ours without blinking over the last 4-5 years. Talent, on the whole, has not been among our bigger problems the last handful of seasons where we've struggled with results.

 

[superrific]

DG made a little over $100m in the NBA in his career. After paying an agent and taxes, he'd be lucky to see half of that in real money. He's also 37 years old and wants to not only live a nice life but also set up his kids (if he has any) and other family, as well. His earning potential isn't likely great for the rest of his career (TV doesn't pay a huge amount unless you're doing 80 hours a week like Stephen A. or Pat McAfee) and so he's got stretch what he's earned for 50(?) more years plus leave a great inheritance to those around him while allowing compound interest to grow that money. How much do you think he's going to be able to give on a year over year basis to Carolina Basketball NIL?

Let's say it's even as high as $500k annually he would give (and I doubt it is), Carolina Basketball would need 30 such players to give that amount EVERY YEAR to have the ~$15m NIL budget we're believed to have spent this year. And we don't have 30 Danny Greens in our alumni base.

The real potential game-changer for Carolina Basketball, from the alumni ranks, is MJ. He has the kind of FU money and sustainable income (est. $300m from Jordan Brand in 2024) that could allow him to give a substantial amount every year without drastically affecting his bottom line. But we'll have to see what happens there.

Every other former player, even with the best of intentions, is unlikely to have the accumulated wealth to be able to make a huge difference to Carolina Basketball via NIL unless they're willing to pour a significant amount of their wealth into the effort.

Well, did I say that athletes would have to fund the whole thing themselves? Let's say Danny and Coby give $500K for the next five years. That's a 7-8% increase from those two alone.

Obviously MJ would make a much greater difference but I find it hard to believe that athlete grads can't or won't support the program. Obviously I have no basis for this thought other than unreliable intuition.

 

[Heelsandeers]

Unless you have no NBA future, I do not see a $200k difference being that important. In fact, we apparently outbid Bama last year for a big and he went to Bama anyway because he thought it was a better fit for him.

Still an odd decision imo

Less money to play a lesser role when you are trying to improve draft stock

What exactly did he think he'd get to highlight at Bama that he couldn't at UNC?

 

[superrific]

1. Players in the NBA have a HUGE choice where they go, especially the better players. Even in trades all they have to do is let it be known they'll refuse to re-sign with the team that trades for them and the trade falls through. The NBA is a player-driven league and the players hold much of the power. And, yes, the reason the Knicks can get these players is, in large part, NYC and MSG, but that's always been the case. They're a top 5/6 all-time NBA team because they're in NYC and they have a long tradition that attracts players. The Knicks have NYC & MSG, we have Dean Smith and the tradition he built (and Roy continued). Those are where the advantages for each team began and it is up to current leadership to best utilize those advantages.

KAT had three years left on his deal when he was traded. Resigning wasn't a priority there. And again, the Knicks have largely whiffed over the years in signing free agents.

 

[SnoopRob]

You can scan the portal and freshman and understand where they are going and mostly why. I believe going forward is more about money than any other variable.

I don't deny that money is the largest driver, but there are other inputs, as well. The second most important is "Can you get me to the NBA and how fast?" Other advantages come in a little further down the line but have the power to sway recruits if the more important things are roughly equal.

My take is that I don't think money has been Carolina Basketball's biggest problem and "fixing" the money situation, unless we get into a situation where we can simply outspend everyone else, isn't going to be the solution to our recent struggles.

 

[Calheel]

Still an odd decision imo

Less money to play a lesser role when you are trying to improve draft stock

What exactly did he think he'd get to highlight at Bama that he couldn't at UNC?

I think he thought that Nate Oates is 10X the coach of Hubert Davis and he would get better coaching at Alabama. Unfortunately, that is a theme that we have heard a lot the last few years. Arguably, we are having to pay a Hubert tax in the NIL market to get players to come to UNC these days.

 

[SnoopRob]

Well, did I say that athletes would have to fund the whole thing themselves? Let's say Danny and Coby give $500K for the next five years. That's a 7-8% increase from those two alone.

Obviously MJ would make a much greater difference but I find it hard to believe that athlete grads can't or won't support the program. Obviously I have no basis for this thought other than unreliable intuition.

Coby White makes $12m this year. Again, after taxes and agent cuts, he'd be lucky to take home half of that. You're expecting that while he's trying to enjoy the fruits of his labor, likely take care of family & friends, and build generational wealth, he's going to give at least 1/12th of his take-home salary away to fund NIL for Carolina Basketball?

I'm highly skeptical that any of us would do that in his situation.

 

[superrific]

Coby White makes $12m this year. Again, after taxes and agent cuts, he'd be lucky to take home half of that. You're expecting that while he's trying to enjoy the fruits of his labor, likely take care of family & friends, and build generational wealth, he's going to give at least 1/12th of his take-home salary away to fund NIL for Carolina Basketball?

I'm highly skeptical that any of us would do that in his situation.

He's going to make a lot more than $12M very soon. But I'm not going to argue made up numbers, either way. I don't feel strongly about this at all so I'll just stop.

 

[SnoopRob]

KAT had three years left on his deal when he was traded. Resigning wasn't a priority there. And again, the Knicks have largely whiffed over the years in signing free agents.

If KAT had made it known that he wouldn't re-sign in 3 years, the Knicks would have been much less likely to trade for him because they would have been unlikely to have given up enough for him as a mere "rental" as opposed to someone they could potentially re-sign down the road.

The Knicks have largely whiffed in free agency over the years because they had a shitty, meddling owner and a terrible front office. That changed in 2020 when they brought in Leon Rose and Dolan finally got the fuck out of the way. The fact that a franchise run as poorly for as long as the Knicks could attract someone like Leon Rose and then turn things around in just a couple of years is because of their location in NYC and the resulting brand.

 

[Calheel]

Coby White makes $12m this year. Again, after taxes and agent cuts, he'd be lucky to take home half of that. You're expecting that while he's trying to enjoy the fruits of his labor, likely take care of family & friends, and build generational wealth, he's going to give at least 1/12th of his take-home salary away to fund NIL for Carolina Basketball?

I'm highly skeptical that any of us would do that in his situation.

Yeah, mid-tier NBA players will not fund NIL. That needs to come from the Jordans and ultra rich alums. Of course, if having billionaire alums were all it took to be successful at sports, we should expect the Ivy league to start crushing it soon, along with Stanford and Cal.

 

[finesse]

Just hope a lot of them got picked on by the athletes as nebbishes and geeks.

 

[UNCatTech]

If KAT had made it known that he wouldn't re-sign in 3 years, the Knicks would have been much less likely to trade for him because they would have been unlikely to have given up enough for him as a mere "rental" as opposed to someone they could potentially re-sign down the road.

The Knicks have largely whiffed in free agency over the years because they had a shitty, meddling owner and a terrible front office. That changed in 2020 when they brought in Leon Rose and Dolan finally got the fuck out of the way. The fact that a franchise run as poorly for as long as the Knicks could attract someone like Leon Rose and then turn things around in just a couple of years is because of their location in NYC and the resulting brand.

I don't see the years as a rental. Teams change fast to much year to year, in my opinion, for that to be a determining factor.

Now, end of season or one year, that's probably in the radar of trade talks.

 

[SnoopRob]

I don't see the years as a rental. Teams change fast to much year to year, in my opinion, for that to be a determining factor.

Now, end of season or one year, that's probably in the radar of trade talks.

It's not just KAT, though, they were able to trade for OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges, as well. And being in NYC helped give them the resources to make those multiple big trades to begin with. They can take a chance on a player walking away at the end of their deal that most other teams can't.

Charlotte or Utah or Portland would have been fortunate to have made one of those trades, much less all 3.

 

[SnoopRob]

Yeah, mid-tier NBA players will not fund NIL. That needs to come from the Jordans and ultra rich alums. Of course, if having billionaire alums were all it took to be successful at sports, we should expect the Ivy league to start crushing it soon, along with Stanford and Cal.

I don't think the Ivy League wants to be in that space in sports, so I doubt their alums would donate to that.

If NIL stays like it is for an decently long time, I wouldn't be surprised to see Stanford become a major player in college revenue sports (in either basketball or football or both). I think they have the alumni base for it. For the most part, Cal does not, IMHO. Their alums are quite odd when it comes to sports, although their NIL collective is currently holding the entire football program hostage, so you never know.

 

[Calheel]

I don't think the Ivy League wants to be in that space in sports, so I doubt their alums would donate to that.

If NIL stays like it is for an decently long time, I wouldn't be surprised to see Stanford become a major player in college revenue sports (in either basketball or football or both). I think they have the alumni base for it. For the most part, Cal does not, IMHO. Their alums are quite odd when it comes to sports, although their NIL collective is currently holding the entire football program hostage, so you never know.

List of universities by number of billionaire alumni - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Heelsandeers]

I think he thought that Nate Oates is 10X the coach of Hubert Davis and he would get better coaching at Alabama. Unfortunately, that is a theme that we have heard a lot the last few years. Arguably, we are having to pay a Hubert tax in the NIL market to get players to come to UNC these days.

Maybe he thought he'd play a larger role at Bama than he did. But seems like the obvious result joining Nelson who was going to play some 5

He was essentially Nick Pringle with a Nigerian accent (who is joining his 3rd SEC school in 3 years)

Just don't see how you pass on an "all the mins you can handle" role when you are trying to show NBA scouts something