How will a Trump presidency affect you?

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CFordUNC said:
Oh dang. Interesting. Looks like I have to stand at least somewhat or mostly corrected on those points. Thanks for sharing those links. I read em and learned from em
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They are mostly bullshit. The problems with the notorious white propagandists at CIS have already been mentioned. FWIW I did work for CIS when I worked at Jones Day. Everyone I dealt with was horrible.

The study by researchers at "Georgia College" in Milledgeville Georgia is pure anecdote and also limited to HPE. The problems with HPE aren't immigrants; they are conscious choices by school districts.

Try this article that attempts to address facts:

www.edweek.org

A More Complete Picture of Immigration's Impact on U.S. Public Schools

House Republicans say a migrant influx has caused "chaos" in K-12 schools. The reality is more complicated.
www.edweek.org www.edweek.org

That article notes that some districts struggle to accommodate the migrants but also notes the impact is generally overstated because of dishonest statistics. They assign sunk costs to new migrants, which as you surely know is bullshit methodology.

For the most part, the impact is muted and barely noticeable. In South Texas that might not be true, and perhaps in parts of SoCal. Overall, it just isn't a problem. Over the long term, of course, these kids will become productive citizens if given the chance.
 
CFordUNC said:
Oh dang. Interesting. Looks like I have to stand at least somewhat or mostly corrected on those points. Thanks for sharing those links. I read em and learned from em
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Key set of phrases in the 4th paragraph of the Reuters link:

“…….exacerbating overcrowding in some classrooms; compounding teacher and budget shortfalls;……”

We (America) have been underfunding schools for decades. The influx of immigrant children is a stress on some schools…..especially underfunded and understaffed and overcrowded schools.
 
superrific said:
1. I don't hang out with plumbers or electricians, I agree. That doesn't mean I know nothing. There is a substantial literature on this. Now, I would probably know more with data AND personal experience, and I don't have the latter for the most part (though my son-in-law is a budding auto mechanic). I contest the "blind" allegation, which I think is an unfair overstatement.

2. Google confirms my intuition that there are few illegal workers in skilled trades like electrical/HVAC, etc. In these fields, there are way more shortages/openings than illegal workers. Wages are set at the margin, so if the # of openings vastly exceeds the undocumented labor force, then the undocumented workers are doing nothing to suppress wages.

eyeonhousing.org

States and Construction Trades Most Reliant on Immigrant Workers, 2022

As we reported earlier, immigrants make one in four construction workers. The share is significantly higher (31%) among construction tradesmen. In some states, reliance on foreign-born labor is particularly evident, with immigrants comprising 40% of the construction workforce in California and...
eyeonhousing.org eyeonhousing.org

3. I can't speak to boilermakers or pipefitters. As I said before, construction is one area where undocumented workers are in competition with natives. That does not necessarily mean that wages are being lowered. Remember: undocumented workers consume even as they produce. There are studies suggesting that undocumented workers increase wages because of the increased demand. I haven't evaluated those studies and I find them implausible at first glance, but they were written by serious people. In any event, I'm not aware of any actual evidence that illegal immigration has a meaningful effect on wages. except perhaps in the lowest skill work in construction.
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All very good points. And honestly I don’t disagree with you. But I think I’m pointing where there is a disconnect with blue collar workers and democrats. Regardless if illegals take blue collar jobs or suppress wages, the belief that they do is rampant in blue collar work. And these people influence their families with these beliefs. And you are left with a part of the population in the south that believes illegals are actively contributing to the hardships in their life and Democrats make it worse with open border policies. Once again it doesn’t matter the perception of the border crisis is mostly bullshit perception is reality for these people. They also hate unions because pubs told them too. Democrats are losing the battle of messaging . But I guess we know that because the shrimp dick orange Cheetoh is our president. Sorry if I’m rambling.
 
Ramrouser said:
Trump had the border relatively under control during 1.0. Do you and others here have a mental block for not being to acknowledge that the border issue literally exploded under Biden and was not merely a “Fox News conspiracy?” Dems will get back into office eventually so they better learn from Biden’s border disaster or they’ll be thrown out of office again

No Open Borders ever again!
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No, COVID closed the borders. It happened around the world, but you keep pretending trump did something. Which policy did he pass in his first term they made a difference?

We've acknowledged that Biden could have handled the boarder better. Just read the thread, several people have responded. You must have a mental block since you can't see that in the last year under Biden deportations were up, without the inhumane bullshit that trump is doing. There's a right way to do things, trump doesn't understand that as everything he does is either stupid or inhumane. It's his norm.
 
Ramrouser said:
I don’t view anyone on this board as the enemy.

I’m genuinely sorry that Trump, and his growing list of successes, are causing Dems to suffer a collective mental nervous breakdown.

If Trump cured cancer, Dems would complain bitterly that he was putting oncologists out of business. 😀
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You're delusional if you believe Trump has been successful.
 
UNCatTech said:
No, COVID closed the borders. It happened around the world, but you keep pretending trump did something. Which policy did he pass in his first term they made a difference?

We've acknowledged that Biden could have handled the boarder better. Just read the thread, several people have responded. You must have a mental block since you can't see that in the last year under Biden deportations were up, without the inhumane bullshit that trump is doing. There's a right way to do things, trump doesn't understand that as everything’s? he does is either stupid or inhumane. It's his norm.
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Really, do you read Super’s posts?
 
Defund the police
Free daycare
City run grocery stores
Rent freeze

Yeah, that’s gonna work. Palm Beach/Boca/Ft Lauderdale/Miami real estate gonna sky rocket!
 
Ramrouser said:
Typical ANGRY liberal. And you wonder why everyone’s not voting for your candidates.

Good luck with the commie/islamist in nyc.
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My anger is rooted in your inhumanity, intellectual dishonesty, and general immorality in service of a fascist regime.

Again, my whole point in starting this thread was to illustrate to assholes like you that the policies and regime you gladly cheer on is having real-world impacts on a personal level for law-abiding citizens like me and my ex.

But you’ve proven time and again that you don’t give a fuck about anyone but yourself. You’re morally bankrupt and incapable of basic human decency or empathy—thus you’re my enemy.

You’re not a patriot. You’re not a good citizen. You’re not a good person. You’re the antithesis of all that is good about America.

Fuck off and die.
 
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Ramrouser said:
Really, do you read Super’s posts?
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The other crap you posted is bullahit.

Our schools have overcrowding issues because of lack of funding, not immigrants. Most everything else you said was hyperbole or simply wrong.

The numbers under Biden did decrease, but he was focused on fixing the economy that trump broke and now the next president will have to do the same. Trump is a spoiled rich brat whose only success was being born on third base. He's a product of daddy's money, nothing more. He's a horrible, narcissistic piece of shit. But you and the cult couldn't have a black woman president so now the country is being fucked in ways that we will not recover from in our lifetime.
 
Ramrouser said:
May 2024 entries: 66,000
May 2025: 0

Trump wins.
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Just a few comments on this:

1. We don't measure "entries," nor is there any possible way we could do so.
2. We typically measure border encounters, which is very different from entries, and which has been subject to significantly different definitions over recent years.
3. What DHS is reporting as zero for May 2025 is not even encounters, but rather undocumented persons released by ICE into the US. I doubt that number is actually zero, but it's possible it could be. Just want to be sure everyone knows what we're talking about here.
4. A large part of the reason encounters is down so far is that Trump ended pretty much all forms of asylum access. To be fair, Biden started doing that in early 2024, which is why the encounter numbers dropped so precipitously over the final months of his presidency. Trump just ended them (almost) completely, though (except for white South Africans, of course), and those persons have always made up a huge percentage of encounters. Thus, far fewer encounters with no active asylum programs.

Here's the rub, though. Whether Trump's policies towards asylum will prove to be legal has yet to be determined. But regardless of that, the human cost is guaranteed to be significant. I don't do a ton of immigration work but I do have a pro bono client right now who has an asylum hearing scheduled in the next two months. He's a gay man from El Salvador who came to the US during Trump's first term because he was being threatened by local gangs with sexual abuse and potential slavery. Since he's been in the US, he's worked diligently (and legally), including in jobs we would consider white collar, earning substantial money and paying substantial taxes. He has committed no crimes. He works with immigrant children in his community. He and his partner, who is a US citizen, are hoping to marry and start a family if his asylum application is granted. He knew no English when he came over, but he now knows enough that I'm hoping we can do the asylum hearing in English, as that can make a difference to our immigration judges.

Now, my client may be denied asylum, in which case he will likely be quickly deported to El Salvador and is at extremely high risk of sexual abuse and potential death. That's the burden hanging on my shoulders right now. But the point is, under the current policies that have resulted in the numbers Ram and others are so proud of, my client would never even have the chance of finding safety in the United States. None. He would be trapped in El Salvador, and there's a great chance he would already be dead.

So it's easy to talk about numbers. It's easy to talk about laws (although I personally think what Trump is doing right now with asylum is lawless). But let's not lose sight of the people. Politics is people. The personal is political. Whatever you may think about immigration as an abstract policy, the impact of those policies on people are vitally important.
 
lawtig02 said:
Just a few comments on this:

1. We don't measure "entries," nor is there any possible way we could do so.
2. We typically measure border encounters, which is very different from entries, and which has been subject to significantly different definitions over recent years.
3. What DHS is reporting as zero for May 2025 is not even encounters, but rather undocumented persons released by ICE into the US. I doubt that number is actually zero, but it's possible it could be. Just want to be sure everyone knows what we're talking about here.
4. A large part of the reason encounters is down so far is that Trump ended pretty much all forms of asylum access. To be fair, Biden started doing that in early 2024, which is why the encounter numbers dropped so precipitously over the final months of his presidency. Trump just ended them (almost) completely, though (except for white South Africans, of course), and those persons have always made up a huge percentage of encounters. Thus, far fewer encounters with no active asylum programs.

Here's the rub, though. Whether Trump's policies towards asylum will prove to be legal has yet to be determined. But regardless of that, the human cost is guaranteed to be significant. I don't do a ton of immigration work but I do have a pro bono client right now who has an asylum hearing scheduled in the next two months. He's a gay man from El Salvador who came to the US during Trump's first term because he was being threatened by local gangs with sexual abuse and potential slavery. Since he's been in the US, he's worked diligently (and legally), including in jobs we would consider white collar, earning substantial money and paying substantial taxes. He has committed no crimes. He works with immigrant children in his community. He and his partner, who is a US citizen, are hoping to marry and start a family if his asylum application is granted. He knew no English when he came over, but he now knows enough that I'm hoping we can do the asylum hearing in English, as that can make a difference to our immigration judges.

Now, my client may be denied asylum, in which case he will likely be quickly deported to El Salvador and is at extremely high risk of sexual abuse and potential death. That's the burden hanging on my shoulders right now. But the point is, under the current policies that have resulted in the numbers Ram and others are so proud of, my client would never even have the chance of finding safety in the United States. None. He would be trapped in El Salvador, and there's a great chance he would already be dead.

So it's easy to talk about numbers. It's easy to talk about laws (although I personally think what Trump is doing right now with asylum is lawless). But let's not lose sight of the people. Politics is people. The personal is political. Whatever you may think about immigration as an abstract policy, the impact of those policies on people are vitally important.
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Exactly, to the cult these are not people.

We need actual policy reform that balances the needs for labor and properly vets those entering the country. The right seems to miss this. No one supports open borders, but trumps plan isn't a long term solution, it's a show for his cult to masterbate to.

There are so many good options that would appease both political parties, but our current, nonfunctional, government isn't doing a god damn thing.
 
lawtig02 said:
Just a few comments on this:

1. We don't measure "entries," nor is there any possible way we could do so.
2. We typically measure border encounters, which is very different from entries, and which has been subject to significantly different definitions over recent years.
3. What DHS is reporting as zero for May 2025 is not even encounters, but rather undocumented persons released by ICE into the US. I doubt that number is actually zero, but it's possible it could be. Just want to be sure everyone knows what we're talking about here.
4. A large part of the reason encounters is down so far is that Trump ended pretty much all forms of asylum access. To be fair, Biden started doing that in early 2024, which is why the encounter numbers dropped so precipitously over the final months of his presidency. Trump just ended them (almost) completely, though (except for white South Africans, of course), and those persons have always made up a huge percentage of encounters. Thus, far fewer encounters with no active asylum programs.

Here's the rub, though. Whether Trump's policies towards asylum will prove to be legal has yet to be determined. But regardless of that, the human cost is guaranteed to be significant. I don't do a ton of immigration work but I do have a pro bono client right now who has an asylum hearing scheduled in the next two months. He's a gay man from El Salvador who came to the US during Trump's first term because he was being threatened by local gangs with sexual abuse and potential slavery. Since he's been in the US, he's worked diligently (and legally), including in jobs we would consider white collar, earning substantial money and paying substantial taxes. He has committed no crimes. He works with immigrant children in his community. He and his partner, who is a US citizen, are hoping to marry and start a family if his asylum application is granted. He knew no English when he came over, but he now knows enough that I'm hoping we can do the asylum hearing in English, as that can make a difference to our immigration judges.

Now, my client may be denied asylum, in which case he will likely be quickly deported to El Salvador and is at extremely high risk of sexual abuse and potential death. That's the burden hanging on my shoulders right now. But the point is, under the current policies that have resulted in the numbers Ram and others are so proud of, my client would never even have the chance of finding safety in the United States. None. He would be trapped in El Salvador, and there's a great chance he would already be dead.

So it's easy to talk about numbers. It's easy to talk about laws (although I personally think what Trump is doing right now with asylum is lawless). But let's not lose sight of the people. Politics is people. The personal is political. Whatever you may think about immigration as an abstract policy, the impact of those policies on people are vitally important.
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lovely post.

and you're spot on with the bit about people. but you're wasting your breath with ram, calla, et. al. they don't give a shit about people outside of their own circles.
 
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