OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS - POTUS | TRUMP ELECTED 47th President
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The GOP didn’t have to pick.There is certainly some merit to your argument. I'm linking below an interesting analysis of the 2020 election.
In 2020, the trend of minority working class voters moving to Trump did continue to progress -- but Biden was able to offset by huge pickups in the suburbs. This year, Harris was not able to match that suburb performance, and the minority working class continued its rightward tilt.
Obviously, 2020 had no inflation issue -- so inflation cannot be the explanation for that result (even if it can explain the acceleration of that trend in 2024).
There is a demographic question as to whether it is possible to build a coalition of suburbs and working class. In other words, do the democrats have to pick one or the other?
The 2020 Presidential Election and Working-Class Voters
Our findings suggest that the 2020 presidential election represented a continued shift in the base of the Democratic Party from one rooted in working-class voters to a coalition that’s highly concentrated in high-income suburbs.jacobin.com
All-in on cultural wars worked with the suburbs and the working class.
That was the messaging but I don't think that is what won them the election. It was the economy. stupid. That is always THE issue in elections. And inflation is the single worst vote killer for the incumbent, even worse than unemployment or low GDP growth.
Yes, Republicans sold culture grievances. And no doubt those transgender commercials performed well in focus groups. But culture wars didn't win the Republicans this election.
Again, I'm going to reiterate that a simple 1.5% of the electorate switching from Trump to Kamala in Georgia, NC, MI, PA, WI makes this a comfortable win for her. So, you are talking about an incredibly small percentage of the electorate -- basically working class latinos. If Harris could have matched Biden's performance with that demographic, odds are good she would be the next president of the United States.
So, culture wars may play to the base. But economic wars are what can swing those 1.5% back to democrats in 2028.
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1moretimeagain
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Imagine being the bus driver and you have elementary school Canadien kids getting into it over a US election.
Damn!
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luckily it's a very short ride (the school is only about 6 minutes away from the big neighborhood spot where all these kids get on. It's actually a bus that does a full route, drops off the kids then doubles back to pick up her cohort and run them over)
it becomes the principal's problem then
Ignorant views of inflation won the election.
Rational economic discussions won’t win the Democrats shit.
Agreed.
This is IMO a big part of the issue, and why we are so screwed. America killed it in the 25 years after WWII because the rest of the world was in shambles. Then we stagnated, but borrowed our way to a new boom in the eighties. Then we stagnated, and technology gave us a new boom in the late 90s. Then we stagnated, and fracking/1% interest rates gave us a new boom. Our quiver is pretty empty as we are leveraged to the hilt and can't go back to 1% rates. Maybe AI, but that cuts hard both ways. The majority of the American public doesn't remember any real hardship that lasted more than a few quarters - I'm 55 and the years of stagflation/energy crisis is a very faint lower school memory.
Trump got elected twice during environments of good to very good overall economic performance that simply weren't satisfying enough. The American public increasingly feels it is everyone's right to be rich, famous and beautiful. And politicians are increasingly willing to say and do anything to keep that keep that fantasy alive. Promising everything, asking nothing and shirking any worldwide responsibility (which is a huge driver for decades of prosperity) is, well, not reality. We're heading for a cliff. I'd prefer the Dems not engage in a game of chicken as to who can fly off it first, even if the other side - which I was once a part of - has the pedal to the metal.
tarheelbillie
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Have nothing against one voting conservative if that’s their conviction. But my God, did you have to vote for a complete nutcase?
Well some sort of honesty is what I was getting at. At some point lying will matter. A lot. I mean we could go all super Santa Claus and maybe win some elections, but that will hasten our plunge into revolution or autocracy, because it won't work given the dynamic it creates within the population. It may be intractable, but I'd prefer not to follow the path of who can be the loudest carnival barker. I pray that somehow the cycle can be broken, but maybe it's just the way polities are doomed to die.
1moretimeagain
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Trump will likely exceed his 2020 total, Dems will be down from 2020 but significantly less than 15 million.
People are comparing a final tally to a vote with millions of ballots left to be counted.
Just my hunch, but I’m expecting most of the Dem decline to be from non-competitive blue states.
Not sure I disagree with you to a certain extent. Skeptical the Democratic party will ever actually have 'control' over the biggest guns if/when strife breaks out. FFS, Flynn or Patel might be SOD.
I think near term holding to some high ground may help when the dam breaks if we aren't too far gone. Tariffs->inflation->world trade disruption (OMG if China gets TSMC)->reserve currency abdication->hyperinflation could be - gulp - our best hope. I'd absolutely DARE Trump to do the things he said and mock him if he doesn't. He's starting at the peak economically speaking, won't take much to start things rolling down hill. And as artful a dodger as he is, worldwide depression due to his policies would be tough to blame on Haitians
I think near term holding to some high ground may help when the dam breaks if we aren't too far gone. Tariffs->inflation->world trade disruption (OMG if China gets TSMC)->reserve currency abdication->hyperinflation could be - gulp - our best hope. I'd absolutely DARE Trump to do the things he said and mock him if he doesn't. He's starting at the peak economically speaking, won't take much to start things rolling down hill. And as artful a dodger as he is, worldwide depression due to his policies would be tough to blame on Haitians
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Heather Cox Richardson on the election outcome.
heathercoxrichardson.substack.com
November 6, 2024
Yesterday, November 5, 2024, Americans reelected former president Donald Trump, a Republican, to the presidency over Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris.
heathercoxrichardson.substack.com
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Already on the phone with Victor Orbán. Smh… we are so fucked.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, considered an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, says he has "big plans" with President-elect Donald Trump after the Republican completed his political comeback on Tuesday
www.newsweek.com
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, considered an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, says he has "big plans" with President-elect Donald Trump after the Republican completed his political comeback on Tuesday
Putin ally Orban says he and Donald Trump have "big plans"
Trump has praised Orbán for being "a great man" who is disliked by some because he is "too strong."
www.newsweek.com
aGDevil2k
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Lol he thinks Hungary is important at allAlready on the phone with Victor Orbán. Smh… we are so fucked.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, considered an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, says he has "big plans" with President-elect Donald Trump after the Republican completed his political comeback on Tuesday
Putin ally Orban says he and Donald Trump have "big plans"
Trump has praised Orbán for being "a great man" who is disliked by some because he is "too strong."