OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS - POTUS | TRUMP ELECTED 47th President

[SnoopRob]

I'm not sure this language means exactly what you think it does. I think it's code for "we need to make everything like the good old days." You know, everything.

As people have pointed out, we have more manufacturing jobs than in a long time. Wages are up. Wages are up more than inflation. Unemployment is extremely low. This "we're struggling economically" bullshit is just that, bullshit. They aren't struggling enough to forgo the $1000 per month they pay on gas in their needless large and inefficient trucks.

I agree that "bringing back manufacturing" is a nod to bringing back "the good ol' days". Of course, Trump also talks about other things to make us like those days, as well.

As far as the rest, every post you make about the economy only goes to show you have absolutely no understanding of working class Americans. I really have no idea how to provide you an entry point into their world. The idea that working class men are, by and large, going to give up trucks due to the cost of gas simply shows you have no idea how working folks actually work.

 

[SnoopRob]

In the process ,Reagan almost tripled the national debt. Paul Volcker, who devised the policy that brought inflation down was actually hired by and started the process under Jimmy Carter. The numbers took a couple of years to reflect it, though. Fwiw, the inflation started under Nixon and continued under Ford. I remember the WIN buttons from Ford. Whip Inflation Now.

Sure.

But I was addressing the differences between Reagan and Biden and how they were perceived.

 

[altmin]

Gaza and the West Bank will be gone. And when Iran really responds, I have to say I want the USA just to stay out of it.

unless they bought a nuke from pakistan, not sure Iran can respond proportionately

 

[Calheel]

Trump got there by speaking on economic issues that matter to many in the working class in a way that appeals to them.

I think very little of last night had to do with what Trump said or did. He was simply the beneficiary of a low inflation rate when he was president and a high inflation rate when Biden was president. His oratory skills did not get the latino vote. Inflation did.

I think there is a day-after tendency to imbue the winning campaign with a certain winning formula, when circumstances had far, far more to do with the result than the campaign, itself. That is not to say that candidate quality is irrelevant. And there is always the possibility that MAGA diehards would only vote for Trump and no other Republican. But for the true swing voters last night, Trump's messaging was not what won the election; inflation was.

 

[SnoopRob]

There it is. He speaks to them in a way that’s heavy with hate and fear for other people and extraordinarily light on details. When Dems start doing that, we’re well on the way to the end of the line.

Good grief, that's not it from an economic perspective.

I don't disagree that Trump is heavy on bigotry. In fact, it is seemingly the most distinctive part of his platform.

But he does connect with working class voters on economic issues. He might not follow through well, but the connection is there. And if Dems want some of those votes, they need to learn to speak a similar language to be able to discuss economic issues.

For the working class, "we'll bring back manufacturing" (however realistic) is a far different message from "learn to code" (however realistic).

 

[Zoo_View]

Biden's first term is actually pretty similar to Reagan's.

The key difference is that Reagan inherited 13.5% inflation from Carter, whereas Biden inherited 1.23% inflation from Trump. So the voters blamed Biden for inflation and praised Reagan. That distinction makes sense and is consistent with the political rule I cited above.

Nothing Carter did caused inflation.

Remember Gerald Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now” (WIN) buttons? Richard Nixon’s price controls?

OPEC’s oil shocks?

Americans (and most humans) are STUPID. See George Carlin.

I understand idiots blamed Carter for inflation and interest rates.

Similar idiots blame Biden.

Trump will inherit a STRONG economy.

 

[Calheel]

Nothing Carter did caused inflation.

Remember Gerald Ford’s “Whip Inflation Now” (WIN) buttons? Richard Nixon’s price controls?

OPEC’s oil shocks?

Americans (and most humans) are STUPID. See George Carlin.

I understand idiots blamed Carter for inflation and interest rates.

Similar idiots blame Biden.

Trump will inherit a STRONG economy.

All true.

All irrelevant.

The voters, by and large, are economically illiterate. Inflation hit the working class the hardest, especially in 2021 and 2022, and that is what sank Harris last night. You want to be the out candidate in that situation.

 

[SnoopRob]

I think very little of last night had to do with what Trump said or did. He was simply the beneficiary of a low inflation rate when he was president and a high inflation rate when Biden was president. His oratory skills did not get the latino vote. Inflation did.

I think there is a day-after tendency to imbue the winning campaign with a certain winning formula, when circumstances had far, far more to do with the result than the campaign, itself. That is not to say that candidate quality is irrelevant. And there is always the possibility that MAGA diehards would only vote for Trump and no other Republican. But for the true swing voters last night, Trump's messaging was not what won the election; inflation was.

To a certain extent, I agree with you. I do think we tend to think campaigns matter far more than they do and that the economic/societal context of each election make a far bigger difference than we typically recognize.

However, we also have to say that Trump has, over 3 elections spanning almost 10 years, done an incredible job connecting with working class voters and pulling them into his base. He activated a whole lot of new working class voters in 2016 and they have now formed an important part of his base. And in this election he very much pulled Latino voters, especially Latino men, to him and away from Dems.

We should be careful to not attribute too much to campaign brilliance, but we also have to observe the things that campaigns do that are atypically effective.

 

[Calheel]

To a certain extent, I agree with you. I do think we tend to think campaigns matter far more than they do and that the economic/societal context of each election make a far bigger difference than we typically recognize.

However, we also have to say that Trump has, over 3 elections spanning almost 10 years, done an incredible job connecting with working class voters and pulling them into his base. He activated a whole lot of new working class voters in 2016 and they have now formed an important part of his base. And in this election he very much pulled Latino voters, especially Latino men, to him and away from Dems.

We should be careful to not attribute too much to campaign brilliance, but we also have to observe the things that campaigns do that are atypically effective.

But did he really do that in 2020?

Certainly, he did that in 2024, but I don't think that should be attributed to Trump. I think it should be attributed to inflation.

I think 2016 may be the strongest support for your theory. But of course, there was also the phenomenon that it is extremely hard for the same-party candidate to win election after an eight-year presidency. Bush Sr. did it, but it is rare.

 

[aGDevil2k]

There it is. He speaks to them in a way that’s heavy with hate and fear for other people and extraordinarily light on details. When Dems start doing that, we’re well on the way to the end of the line.

End of the line?

 

[1moretimeagain]

US Manufacturing Construction spending more than doubled during the Biden Administration, most Republicans voted against the bills. Working class males are the primary beneficiary.

 

[GQNC]

The Michael Deaver campaign TV arrangements in ‘81-‘84 were BRILLIANT!

Deaver and Reagan’s advance teams were GREAT at giving the networks incredible video and still photo backdrops. Audio was high quality.

Deaver and team gave the media what they wanted - easy to use video/pictures of picturesque scenes.

Reagan was the kindly, friendly, avuncular grandfather who did “manly” work on his California “ranch.”

Paul Volcker (Carter appointee) had had to send rates so high to break inflation that 7.1% unemployment, 4.3% inflation, and 9% fed discount rate were considered GREAT in 1984…..Morning in America!

Reagan was credited with breaking inflation (he’d wanted to fire Volcker during the 1982 recession) and growing the economy (7+% unemployment).

A similarity between 1984 and 2024 - the media feared Reagan’s staff and they fear Trump.

Thanks. Your memory and data is superior to mine. It seems that the mortgage rates were peaking around November 1982 because it was when I put in an offer on what would have been my first house. We added a clause in the offer contract stating max mortgage rate of 14.5%. Before the offer could be accepted the rate increased to 16%, giving us an out. That coupled with my wife being laid off from her US government temporary job (Reagan’s cross the board move) made for fun times.

 

[finesse]

Thanks. Your memory and data is superior to mine. It seems that the mortgage rates were peaking around November 1982 because it was when I put in an offer on what would have been my first house. We added a clause in the offer contract stating max mortgage rate of 14.5%. Before the offer could be accepted the rate increased to 16%, giving us an out. That coupled with my wife being laid off from her US government temporary job (Reagan’s cross the board move) made for fun times.

I was working on a framing crew around that time. Work went to hell in a hurry. I was lucky to get on with a crew doing concrete construction on the Burn Center ,iirc. I bounced back and forth for a while. I wanted to do houses but the work kept drying up . I'd usually end up on a university job when that happened.

 

[SnoopRob]

But did he really do that in 2020?

Certainly, he did that in 2024, but I don't think that should be attributed to Trump. I think it should be attributed to inflation.

I think 2016 may be the strongest support for your theory. But of course, there was also the phenomenon that it is extremely hard for the same-party candidate to win election after an eight-year presidency. Bush Sr. did it, but it is rare.

He got almost 75 million votes in 2020 in the midst of bungling a pandemic, most of which was a direct result of the connection he had with working class voters.

In 2024, he solidified his working class base and made advances into working class groups that had previously been Dem-leans.

I'd say he's done well with the working class in all 3 elections.

 

[SmilingJack]

He got almost 75 million votes in 2020 in the midst of bungling a pandemic, most of which was a direct result of the connection he had with working class voters.

In 2024, he solidified his working class base and made advances into working class groups that had previously been Dem-leans.

I'd say he's done well with the working class in all 3 elections.

He loves the poorly educated if I recall.

 

[Callatoroy]

Good grief, that's not it from an economic perspective.

I don't disagree that Trump is heavy on bigotry. In fact, it is seemingly the most distinctive part of his platform.

But he does connect with working class voters on economic issues. He might not follow through well, but the connection is there. And if Dems want some of those votes, they need to learn to speak a similar language to be able to discuss economic issues.

For the working class, "we'll bring back manufacturing" (however realistic) is a far different message from "learn to code" (however realistic).

Gotta go cook some fries at mcdonalds and work the drive through. trump wants to not tax tips (she tried to copy it but it was obviously phony) or overtime. Can't get more working class than that.

 

[finesse]

Is Trump still not going to collect taxes on overtime on people who collect over 100,000 dollars a year in overtime?

 

[farce©]

I'd say he's done well with the working class in all 3 elections.

Yes, mostly by promising them things they are too naive to understand he can’t deliver.

 

[Calheel]

He got almost 75 million votes in 2020 in the midst of bungling a pandemic, most of which was a direct result of the connection he had with working class voters.

In 2024, he solidified his working class base and made advances into working class groups that had previously been Dem-leans.

I'd say he's done well with the working class in all 3 elections.

There is certainly some merit to your argument. I'm linking below an interesting analysis of the 2020 election.

In 2020, the trend of minority working class voters moving to Trump did continue to progress -- but Biden was able to offset by huge pickups in the suburbs. This year, Harris was not able to match that suburb performance, and the minority working class continued its rightward tilt.

Obviously, 2020 had no inflation issue -- so inflation cannot be the explanation for that result (even if it can explain the acceleration of that trend in 2024).

There is a demographic question as to whether it is possible to build a coalition of suburbs and working class. In other words, do the democrats have to pick one or the other?

The 2020 Presidential Election and Working-Class Voters

Our findings suggest that the 2020 presidential election represented a continued shift in the base of the Democratic Party from one rooted in working-class voters to a coalition that’s highly concentrated in high-income suburbs.

jacobin.com

 

[stankeylegjones]

Trump’s total will be higher than 2020. California alone should more than makeup the current difference. With 54% of votes counted, he has 3.9 million votes there

Anecdotally, I saw Trump signs, Trump demonstrations on bridges over 24 and 580, and several folks wearing Trump 2024 shirts while out shopping. I don't recall ever seeing this since I've lived here (Bay area).