Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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gtyellowjacket said:
I think there are decisions like should Poland give arms and munitions to Ukraine where Trump wants to make all the decisions. But if Russia is going to start threatening Poland, it's not going to matter what Trump wants. It's going to matter how strong Poland's military has become as well as the strengths of Poland's allies. And the answer to that is much stronger than it was 10 years ago thanks in large part to their defense spending that Trump has encouraged.

That's why I always felt it was pretty dumb to think that Trump was some kind of Russian plant doing everything Putin wants. The last thing Putin wants, maybe after support for Ukraine, is more military spending in Europe. Especially Germany which is exactly what Trump has been pushing for a decade.
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I don’t follow. The 2015 Polish military plus a rock solid US security guarantee was far more powerful than the 2025 Polish military with no guarantee the US would come to their aid if they were attacked.
 
farce© said:
It absolutely is. It gets his endorphins firing.
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Anything to get that next hit of generating liberal outrage...tricky part is its a sugar high and they start to fall apart on the crash...and then start shitposting more in hopes of getting a bigger hit next time. Its a brutal cycle to be stuck in...I do pity them in some ways.
 
heelinhell said:
That was my reaction, as well.

Trump lost his cool because he realized that Z was not going to lay down and give him a chance to match Obama by winning the Nobel Peace Prize.

For Trump it's not about a just peace or even mineral rights; it's all about the Nobel, and he had a temper tantrum when Z threw cold water on his Nobel plans.
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That actually makes the most sense. I was thinking that maybe Trump or zielinski wanted to put on a sheriff of the cameras and that's why all those cameras were there, but Trump wanting to capture this for posterity is the more probable scenario.

Still surprised they didn't work all this out beforehand either behind closed doors with Trump and zielinski or with some lower level diplomats. I think the reason you don't see this with normal Presidents is that's how it's done.
 
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lawtig02 said:
Just want to reiterate, this would not have gone off the rails if Vance had just kept his fat mouth shut.
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That was just weird I assume planned-Why the Hell else would that sort of Vice President even have been there
 
gtyellowjacket said:
That actually makes the most sense. I was thinking that maybe Trump or zielinski wanted to put on a sheriff of the cameras and that's why all those cameras were there, but Trump wanting to capture this for posterity is the more probable scenario.

Still surprised they didn't work all this out beforehand either behind closed doors with Trump and zielinski or with some lower level diplomats. I think the reason you don't see this with normal Presidents is that's how it's done.
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Again, it was in the Oval Office. Zelensky has no control over what press is there. That was Trump’s call, 100%.
 
altmin said:
Vance didn't even need to be in there. He was there because everyone involved in the planning knows Trump can't be trusted to stay on script. Especially when he is intimidated, like he would be of Zelensky.
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I assumed JD was there because Elon had other things to fuck up and couldn’t make it.
 
lawtig02 said:
I don’t follow. The 2015 Polish military plus a rock solid US security guarantee was far more powerful than the 2025 Polish military with no guarantee the US would come to their aid if they were attacked.
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That is not necessarily what Russia fears though. They would like land in Poland and to recreate the iron curtain with a bunch of puppet states. They fear European countries, especially Germany, marching through Red square. That second scenario is more likely to happen with a stronger Europe.

Ideally, Putin would want the US to pull back from NATO commitments and European countries to keep defense spending light. But can you imagine a scenario where Putin calls Trump on the red phone and says "I want you to pull the US back from Europe, but I also want you to pressure all the countries that have invaded Russia in the past to increase their defense spending or I am going to release the pee-tapes." That's why the Putin agent theory just just doesn't make sense to me.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
That is not necessarily what Russia fears though. They would like land in Poland and to recreate the iron curtain with a bunch of puppet states. They fear European countries, especially Germany, marching through Red square. That second scenario is more likely to happen with a stronger Europe.
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This is ridiculous. Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. Germany isn’t marching through the Red Square. Western European countries haven’t invaded a damn thing in 80 years.
 
The tragedy is that, until Trump, the "special military operation" had already turned into a strategic debacle for Putin.

He got additional NATO encirclement with Sweden and Finland. His military was exposed as shambolic. He may be winning marginally in Ukraine at the moment, but at a huge domestic cost. He's already had one aborted coup, and he has to ride out a crashing economy over the next few years.

The only thing that could make this a winner for him is if the Atlantic Alliance cratered. And, thanks to our President, it has.
 
Callatoroy said:
Well what are the details of that? I know you want to, and have to believe its capitulation. But since no details are out there for scrutiny kind of hard to say that isn't it?

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With all due respect your post suggests that you have a limited capacity for reasonable inference...or maybe you are being disingenuous ?
 
BlooVooDoo said:
This is ridiculous. Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. Germany isn’t marching through the Red Square. Western European countries haven’t invaded a damn thing in 80 years.
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Yeah, I have a feeling the things Russia fears, in order, are —

1. The US Air Force
2. The US Navy
3. The US Army
4. The US Marines





5. China




6. Any European country
 
lawtig02 said:
Yeah, I have a feeling the things Russia fears, in order, are —

1. The US Air Force
2. The US Navy
3. The US Army
4. The US Marines





5. China




6. Any European country
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Saudi Arabia dramatically increasing oil production and causing crude oil prices to plummet is likely a Russian fear. It’s doubtful the Saudis will do so; but, they could eff with Russia if they chose to do so.
 
From today’s Axios newsletter, a fairly concise overview.


Yesterday's Oval Office shouting match was shocking. But it wasn't too surprising to anyone close to President Trump or Vice President Vance.
  • Why it matters: Privately, Trump sees Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a pro-Biden, ungrateful lightweight destined to lose to Russia. And Trump advisers believe Zelensky sees Trump as a pro-Putin, delusional fool destined to make him lose to Russia, Axios' Alex Isenstadt and Marc Caputo report.
To Trump's team, it was three strikes — and now officially out of favor — for Zelensky. In their eyes, Zelensky already had two strikes against him when he sat down with Trump and Vance.
  • That was the backdrop for a conversation that would become perhaps the most epic televised foreign policy row in history — an argument that rattled Europe and vividly illustrated a sharp turn in U.S. foreign policy toward Russia.
👉 It began with what Trump's team saw as Strike 3 against Zelensky: He disagreed publicly with Vance, who accused Zelensky of trying to "litigate" his case before the media.
  • Vance said Zelensky didn't show enough thanks to the U.S. for funding Ukraine's defense — or to Trump for trying to bring peace.
  • After a tense nine-minute exchange, it ended with Trump stopping the 50-minute meeting and essentially showing Zelensky the door.
👉 Strike 2 came just before Friday's meeting, when Zelensky arrived at the White House without a suit or jacket, as requested. It was perceived by White House staffers as disrespectful.
  • Zelensky was dressed instead in a three-button, skintight, long-sleeved black athletic shirt. "Wow look, you're all dressed up today," Trump said in a seemingly friendly way that advisers say masked annoyance.
Brian Glenn, a conservative reporter and boyfriend of Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), voiced the attitude of Trump's team when he asked Zelensky, "Why don't you wear a suit? … Do you own a suit?" Vance laughed out loud.
  • "I will wear a [suit] after this war will finish," Zelensky said. "Maybe something like yours. Maybe something better ... maybe something cheaper."
👉 Strike 1, as first reported by Axios, came Feb. 15, when Zelensky trashed a proposed mineral rights deal with Ukraine that he privately had discussed the day before in Munich with Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.


The big picture: At the heart of the discord is Trump's view of the conflict, which continues to challenge the United States' long-held alliances in Europe.
  • Trump sees geopolitics in terms of negotiations between powerful countries and big personalities. Russian President Vladimir Putin is a coequal in this paradigm. Zelensky — the leader of a smaller country surviving thanks to American largesse — isn't.
Trump also approaches politics like a business deal or, as a former casino owner, as a type of poker. In one telling moment, he told Zelensky he had a bad hand without the U.S.
  • "I'm not playing cards. I'm very serious," Zelensky said. Trump shot back: "You're playing cards. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people."
  • Quick to temper and desiring of flattery, Trump demands a high degree of obeisance from supplicants. Zelensky didn't show that — and Vance was quick to try to put him in his place.
Trump's expectation of deference from Zelensky is particularly high because of the massive aid the U.S. has sent to Ukraine (an amount Trump inflates). The two have had a fraught relationship since 2019, when Trump was impeached for trying to leverage Zelensky for political gain against Joe Biden.
  • Vance has long had antipathy for Zelensky and funding Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion. In his 2022 Senate race in Ohio, Vance ran on a platform of ending Ukraine aid.
 
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