Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

[nycfan]

Jesus Christ. This guy is SO far over his head. I've literally never been more afraid of a nuclear war than I am right now, and it's all because we elected a president who has no FUCKING clue what he's doing in Russia and Iran.

I think Trump seems to have “authorized” Russian reprisal against Ukraine and get the worries about what that could look like. And I can see this being as scary as any potential nuclear threat since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but TBH I feel nothing like the constant existential dread of nuclear annihilation that I felt in the Reagan (and to a lesser extent GHWB) administration.

 

[Calheel]

Why is he speaking to Putin about Iran? Why are we normalizing the relationship this administration has with Russia?

Russia is a traditional ally of Iran and has at least some sway with the decisionmakers there. If US and Russia can coordinate a joint position on a nuclear deal with Iran, it makes it easier to effectuate a deal.

That said, Russia will leverage Iran cooperation to get what it wants in Ukraine and not sure that is a trade off worth making.

 

[lawtig02]

I think Trump seems to have “authorized” Russian reprisal against Ukraine and get the worries about what that could look like. And I can see this being as scary as any potential nuclear threat since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but TBH I feel nothing like the constant existential dread of nuclear annihilation that I felt in the Reagan (and to a lesser extent GHWB) administration.

Thanks. I was REALLY young in that era, so I can't speak to it, but it feels to me like MAD put the bumpers on the bowling alley, and Trump has suddenly announced he's willing to let the best bowler in the world shoot for strikes.

 

[dukeman92]

Russia is a traditional ally of Iran and has at least some sway with the decisionmakers there. If US and Russia can coordinate a joint position on a nuclear deal with Iran, it makes it easier to effectuate a deal.

That said, Russia will leverage Iran cooperation to get what it wants in Ukraine and not sure that is a trade off worth making.

I know that Russia and Iran are terror buddies. I want to know why the administration is negotiating nuclear dominoes with Russia... (rhetorical) but more importantly why the people of this country are seemingly okay with it.

 

[lawtig02]

I think Trump seems to have “authorized” Russian reprisal against Ukraine and get the worries about what that could look like. And I can see this being as scary as any potential nuclear threat since the collapse of the Soviet Union, but TBH I feel nothing like the constant existential dread of nuclear annihilation that I felt in the Reagan (and to a lesser extent GHWB) administration.

And by the way, if the President of the United States of America actually did authorize a Russian reprisal against Ukraine, in any rational world, impeachment proceedings would commence immediately, and not a single motherfucking member of Congress would hesitate for a second before removing him from office.

 

[05C40]

Maybe if St. Donald of Mar-a-Lago hadn't acted like like some high school idiot when Zelenskyy was in the White House and shown he was something other than an echo chamber for Vlad "the Ras" Putin's megalomaniacal ravings, we wouldn't be looking at replacing our technological society with a hunter-gatherer society. Thanks a lot MAGA. Looks like all those guns, ammunition, and survival rations you stocked up on are going to come in handy. But I do wonder if MAGAs have a firm grasp on how complicated the supply chain for the prescription medicines that keep them alive is?

ETA: Link - Insulin Supply Chain: Complexity of Drug Deliveries – Logmore Blog

 

[BlooVooDoo]

I know that Russia and Iran are terror buddies. I want to know why the administration is negotiating nuclear dominoes with Russia... (rhetorical) but more importantly why the people of this country are seemingly okay with it.

Putin is almost certainly the one who brought it up.

 

[lawtig02]

I'm hoping by the limited response to this thread that I'm overreacting. I'm just absolutely beside myself that an American president would say something as reckless as that.

 

[1moretimeagain]

 

[nycfan]

 

[Molotov Mocktail]

Vladimir, stop, I didn’t even know they were gonna do it. You gotta believe me!

 

[BlooVooDoo]

I'm hoping by the limited response to this thread that I'm overreacting. I'm just absolutely beside myself that an American president would say something as reckless as that.

There’s so much in his statement that is objectionable (and yet mundane for him), I’m not sure which part concerns you. The bellicose warning to Iran? I’m not too worried about that given his desperate need for a foreign policy accomplishment. It’s just his usual bluster, unfettered by a grasp of the gravity of the moment. The Israeli threshold for Iran’s nuclear ambition is far lower than ours and they are inherently more likely to launch an attack with the potential to destabilize the region.

 

[theel4life]

Trump is so Putin's bitch.

 

[nycfan]

So Trump welcomes a Russia sanctions bill?

From the editorial he linked:

“… The bill, which has a whopping 82 co-sponsors in the Senate, would impose “bone-crushing” sanctions on Russia. Right now, Russia is suffering double-digit inflation, skyrocketing interest ratesand catastrophic labor shortages. The only thing keeping the country’s economy from collapse is revenue from oil and gas exports. This legislation would shut off the most important source of cash for the Kremlin by barring energy transactionswith sanctioned Russian banks (which President Joe Biden allowed to continue), and imposing a 500 percent secondary tariff on any country that purchases Russian-origin uranium, oil, natural gas, petroleum, or petroleum products and petrochemical products. This would give Trump the power to effectively drive Russian energy sales from the global market, which would crush the Russian economy and deny Putin the funds to continue his aggression against Ukraine.

…
Signing the bill does not mean Trump has to implement the sanctions immediately. The proposed sanctions take effect only after the president issues a formal determination that Putin is engaging in sanctionable acts as described in the bill, such as “refusing to negotiate a peace agreement with Ukraine.”
If Trump is not comfortable making that determination, there is another option: He does not have to sign the bill immediately after Congress approves it. Once a bill is sent to the president, he has 10 days to sign or veto it. But nothing requires Congress to send the president a bill it has passed. Indeed, after it is approved in the House and the Senate, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) can hold the bill at the deskindefinitely rather than sending it to the White House — giving Trump as much time as he needs before signing it.

…
Congress could give Trump even more leverage by adding a provision to the sanctions legislation that would authorize the sale of U.S. weapons to Ukraine, using Foreign Military Financing (FMF) direct loans, like those we provide to our allies and partners around the world. Such loans would cost taxpayers nothing — indeed they would earn a profit, because the loans come with interest that must be paid to the U.S. government. Congress could also create a transfer authority that permits frozen Russian assets to be used by Ukraine to buy U.S. weapons.

The combination of sanctions and arms is precisely what Trump promised he would do if Putin did not agree to peace. In March, he declared: “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault … I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia.” And in an interview with me last year at Mar-a-Lago, he said that if Putin refused his peace efforts, he would give Ukraine more weapons than it has ever gotten before….”

 

[lawtig02]

There’s so much in his statement that is objectionable (and yet mundane for him), I’m not sure which part concerns you. The bellicose warning to Iran? I’m not too worried about that given his desperate need for a foreign policy accomplishment. It’s just his usual bluster, unfettered by a grasp of the gravity of the moment. The Israeli threshold for Iran’s nuclear ambition is far lower than ours and they are inherently more likely to launch an attack with the potential to destabilize the region.

1. You're right.

2. Trump doesn't seem to have any appreciation for the gravity of this moment. Russia has nukes, and thus a Russian response to the brilliant Ukranian attack involves the possibility of nukes. Iran is close to, but does not yet have, nukes, but Israel does, and an escalation in that region (especially if advocated by Moscow) thus raises the risks significantly.

In short, I don't know what specific messages were communicated between DC and Moscow in 1962. But it's hard to imagine there were any messages more destabilizing than Trump's tweet earlier today.

 

[nycfan]

So Trump welcomes a Russia sanctions bill?

From the editorial he linked:

“… The bill, which has a whopping 82 co-sponsors in the Senate, would impose “bone-crushing” sanctions on Russia. Right now, Russia is suffering double-digit inflation, skyrocketing interest ratesand catastrophic labor shortages. The only thing keeping the country’s economy from collapse is revenue from oil and gas exports. This legislation would shut off the most important source of cash for the Kremlin by barring energy transactionswith sanctioned Russian banks (which President Joe Biden allowed to continue), and imposing a 500 percent secondary tariff on any country that purchases Russian-origin uranium, oil, natural gas, petroleum, or petroleum products and petrochemical products. This would give Trump the power to effectively drive Russian energy sales from the global market, which would crush the Russian economy and deny Putin the funds to continue his aggression against Ukraine.

…
Signing the bill does not mean Trump has to implement the sanctions immediately. The proposed sanctions take effect only after the president issues a formal determination that Putin is engaging in sanctionable acts as described in the bill, such as “refusing to negotiate a peace agreement with Ukraine.”
If Trump is not comfortable making that determination, there is another option: He does not have to sign the bill immediately after Congress approves it. Once a bill is sent to the president, he has 10 days to sign or veto it. But nothing requires Congress to send the president a bill it has passed. Indeed, after it is approved in the House and the Senate, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-South Dakota) can hold the bill at the deskindefinitely rather than sending it to the White House — giving Trump as much time as he needs before signing it.

…
Congress could give Trump even more leverage by adding a provision to the sanctions legislation that would authorize the sale of U.S. weapons to Ukraine, using Foreign Military Financing (FMF) direct loans, like those we provide to our allies and partners around the world. Such loans would cost taxpayers nothing — indeed they would earn a profit, because the loans come with interest that must be paid to the U.S. government. Congress could also create a transfer authority that permits frozen Russian assets to be used by Ukraine to buy U.S. weapons.

The combination of sanctions and arms is precisely what Trump promised he would do if Putin did not agree to peace. In March, he declared: “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault … I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia.” And in an interview with me last year at Mar-a-Lago, he said that if Putin refused his peace efforts, he would give Ukraine more weapons than it has ever gotten before….”

I mean, why wait? Trump could just declare a 1,000% tariff on Russian goods on his own recognizance, apparently …

 

[nycfan]

1. You're right.

2. Trump doesn't seem to have any appreciation for the gravity of this moment. Russia has nukes, and thus a Russian response to the brilliant Ukranian attack involves the possibility of nukes. Iran is close to, but does not yet have, nukes, but Israel does, and an escalation in that region (especially if advocated by Moscow) thus raises the risks significantly.

In short, I don't know what specific messages were communicated between DC and Moscow in 1962. But it's hard to imagine there were any messages more destabilizing than Trump's tweet earlier today.

 

[nycfan]

 

[lawtig02]

That's fantastic. I don't think I have seen those before, but that's great.

 

[nycfan]

There’s so much in his statement that is objectionable (and yet mundane for him), I’m not sure which part concerns you. The bellicose warning to Iran? I’m not too worried about that given his desperate need for a foreign policy accomplishment. It’s just his usual bluster, unfettered by a grasp of the gravity of the moment. The Israeli threshold for Iran’s nuclear ambition is far lower than ours and they are inherently more likely to launch an attack with the potential to destabilize the region.