Russia - US | Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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There is truly nothing I'd enjoy more than to be completely wrong about Donald Trump. There's nothing I'd enjoy more than to have Trump turn out to be a brilliant negotiator who brings about a genuine, lasting peace between Ukraine and Russia. There's nothing I'd enjoy more than to have Trump negotiate some masterful bargain that gives the United States access to natural resources that can boost our economy. I'd love nothing more than for Trump to earn a Nobel Peace Prize and go down in history as one of the great American presidents leading the United States- and by extension the rest of the globe- into and through an era of unprecedented peace and prosperity. Heck, at a bare baseline minimum, I'd enjoy nothing more than Trump to simply maintain the status quo- he doesn't even have to improve upon it!- that has existed for the last 80 years that has enabled the U.S. to be the world's premier economic and cultural leader.

There is also nothing that's going to humor me more than revisiting this thread and bumping calla's and ramrouser's breathless fondling of Trump's ballsack so that we can all laugh about how ridiculously stupid their wishcasting turns out to be. There is quite literally nothing in Donald Trump's history as a person, as a businessman, or as president that would lead anyone- or, rather, anyone with a shred of objectivity- to believe that the he is going to somehow be able expertly navigate this whole situation.

But I'd love nothing more than to be wrong and to have my own nose rubbed in how wrong I was.
 
Callatoroy said:
The US just became (assuming brokered peace is the result)

less dependent on china for minerals
led the effort to end a 3.5 year war in less than 3 months in office (was joe asleep at the wheel? No, just mentally incapable)
solidified the US as the dominant leader of the free world
locked up the nobel prize for trump

Sadly, that is going to greatly disappoint many here.
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No it won’t. Assuming it works out that way. It won’t. Trump is being played by Putin.
 
Callatoroy said:
The US just became (assuming brokered peace is the result)

less dependent on china for minerals
led the effort to end a 3.5 year war in less than 3 months in office (was joe asleep at the wheel? No, just mentally incapable)
solidified the US as the dominant leader of the free world
locked up the nobel prize for trump

Sadly, that is going to greatly disappoint many here.
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I'm convinced your family tree is a wreath.
 
superrific said:
What if Trump is just congenitally like Putin? A sadistic narcissist who cares only for power? Trump looked up to Roy Cohn too.
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Well that would certainly fit my “it’s all about the money and power” line of thinking… again, as insidious as that is. I mean it’s just like a Hollywood script: “Notorious bad guy holds world hostage for money and wants absolute power. Dr. Evil just wants to control the World”. Sounds exactly like trump, actually.
 
Good podcast (if you can get over Ezra Klein's annoying NY Times podcast speech pattern) with Fareed Zakaria on trying to understand Trump's foreign policy.

 
Centerpiece said:
Well that would certainly fit my “it’s all about the money and power” line of thinking… again, as insidious as that is. I mean it’s just like a Hollywood script: “Notorious bad guy holds world hostage for money and wants absolute power. Dr. Evil just wants to control the World”. Sounds exactly like trump, actually.
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Right down to the hilarity of the unintentionally underwhelming demand.

Truth is, I'd probably prefer a million dollars to an MOU setting forth a plan to be negotiated for exploitation of Ukraine's minerals.
 
In four plus years of being President, has Trump ever made a deal with an adversary like Russia, china, NK, Iran, where he didn't get completely hosed? I just can't recall.
 
superrific said:
Well, so far, every single one of my predictions about the economy under Trump has come true. Exactly as I predicted, inflation is up, growth is down, interest rates are high, a recession looms, and the US labor market is becoming terrible.

Don't expect me to be wrong about this.
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May not want to take victory lap yet. Inflation is set to be down for the first time since September and the 10 year is down as well.
 
Purple Nurple said:
May not want to take victory lap yet. Inflation is set to be down for the first time since September and the 10 year is down as well.
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The 10 year is only down because the market is expecting a recession, LOL.

Inflation is going up. I don't know what you're talking about. Inflation is currently on a run rate of about 6% per year. Maybe you are talking about YoY, but YoY statistics for inflation mean nothing because they are cumulative. If inflation is indeed down in Feb, it will be mostly because of what happened from March 2024-January 2024. Only a small portion of the YoY numbers reflects what is going on right now. That's not a Trump thing; that's an all the time math thing.

Basically the story with interest rates was: they were gradually dropping, reaching their lowest point the day after the Kamala/Trump debate that she clearly won. Not kidding at all. And that makes sense -- it was the time in which Kamala's chances looked best, perhaps. After that they went up in October, and then kept going up through November - February.

They have been falling, but that's primarily because the GDP indicators are turning negative. The market is clearly expecting the economy to crater, and thus for the Fed to lower rates. Whether the fed can really do that is a different question.
 
superrific said:
The 10 year is only down because the market is expecting a recession, LOL.

Inflation is going up. I don't know what you're talking about. Inflation is currently on a run rate of about 6% per year. Maybe you are talking about YoY, but YoY statistics for inflation mean nothing because they are cumulative. If inflation is indeed down in Feb, it will be mostly because of what happened from March 2024-January 2024. Only a small portion of the YoY numbers reflects what is going on right now. That's not a Trump thing; that's an all the time math thing.

Basically the story with interest rates was: they were gradually dropping, reaching their lowest point the day after the Kamala/Trump debate that she clearly won. Not kidding at all. And that makes sense -- it was the time in which Kamala's chances looked best, perhaps. After that they went up in October, and then kept going up through November - February.

They have been falling, but that's primarily because the GDP indicators are turning negative. The market is clearly expecting the economy to crater, and thus for the Fed to lower rates. Whether the fed can really do that is a different question.
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So you do understand that with a recession looming and the job market falling apart, interest rates don't generally move up. Great.

If you can produce one piece of data that shows an expectation for inflation to be 6% I would be highly surprised.
 
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Purple Nurple said:
So you do understand that with a recession looming and the job market falling apart, interest rates don't generally move up. Great.

If you can produce one piece of data that shows an expectation for inflation to be 6% I would be highly surprised.
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Why are you trying to talk down to me?

I didn't say the expectation was 6% inflation. That's what the inflation is right now. The last two months have been 0.4% in Dec and 0.5% in Jan. That's close to 6% annually. And that's before tariffs. The tariffs from China are now 20%.

The only thing keeping inflation down right now is the looming recession, which is not good. If Trump takes away the tariffs and doesn't put any more in, then 6% will probably be the cap. But is he going to do that?
 
CFordUNC said:
I think the United States should be removed from Five Eyes and from Pine Gap.
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I doubt Australia could exclude the US from Pine Gap; they might be able to stop the US from sending replacement personnel to the facility.

I expect the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada are already restricting what they share with they US.
 
Zoo_View said:
I doubt Australia could exclude the US from Pine Gap; they might be able to stop the US from sending replacement personnel to the facility.

I expect the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada are already restricting what they share with they US.
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Good points, both of those.
 
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