Stock Market/Investing/Fin Planning Catch-All

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Where's the bond market going to go. I did the BogleHead thing a decade ago, put a good chunk for my age and profile into BND and BND is down 13% or something since then. It sucks to be an index investor and see one of your big picks such a laggard.

Where is this going in the next 5 yrs?

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gregh1 said:
Where's the bond market going to go. I did the BogleHead thing a decade ago, put a good chunk for my age and profile into BND and BND is down 13% or something since then. It sucks to be an index investor and see one of your big picks such a laggard.

Where is this going in the next 5 yrs?

1738102532555.png
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def hurts when your 'safe' investment is the one that has gone down
 
When you can get 4-5% on guaranteed Treasuries or almost guaranteed money market accounts, tough to justify buying bonds, certain stocks where the primary appeal is the divident or divedend appreciation mutial funds/etfs

When interest rates start going down consistently, will be an excellent time to be in bonds.
 
heelslegup said:
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It's a weird world when there are FOUR leveraged ETFs for a single traded company. The number of features or products in the financial world is ridiculous, and the amount of money and effort just in the infrastructure for them seems nonsensical since it feels so speculative.

I'd love to see a pie chart of the size of the US financial industry today compared to other economies AND past civilizations.

Banking probably isn't too tough but investing/speculation is probably hard to calc back in medieval era for example. Maybe we'd find the 40's gold rush to be huge proportionally or something unexpected.
 
heelslegup said:
When you can get 4-5% on guaranteed Treasuries or almost guaranteed money market accounts, tough to justify buying bonds, certain stocks where the primary appeal is the divident or divedend appreciation mutial funds/etfs

When interest rates start going down consistently, will be an excellent time to be in bonds.
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I agree

I have $380,000 parked in my Roth IRA paying 4.19%. The interest payment is comparable to a 10 year treasury. The price volatility is nil, and the income is tax free.

No reason to buy bonds in this uncertain environment
 
I moved 2/3 of my retirement (the part that is in a target index) to a much more conservative index for the next 3 months. Not pulling out of the market, but I wanted something more conservative because I just dont feel good about the coming quarter of news. Maybe it drops a bit by then and I buy back into the original index. Or maybe I just miss a couple of points of growth in the short term, but I feel better with it a little safer
 
aGDevil2k said:
I moved 2/3 of my retirement (the part that is in a target index) to a much more conservative index for the next 3 months. Not pulling out of the market, but I wanted something more conservative because I just dont feel good about the coming quarter of news. Maybe it drops a bit by then and I buy back into the original index. Or maybe I just miss a couple of points of growth in the short term, but I feel better with it a little safer
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I'm the last thing from an expert but I think that's smart. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which the broader economy, and thus the index, does well over the next 2-4 years. Certain companies will do extremely well. But the economy as a whole is on perilous ground I'm afraid.
 
gregh1 said:
It's a weird world when there are FOUR leveraged ETFs for a single traded company. The number of features or products in the financial world is ridiculous, and the amount of money and effort just in the infrastructure for them seems nonsensical since it feels so speculative.

I'd love to see a pie chart of the size of the US financial industry today compared to other economies AND past civilizations.

Banking probably isn't too tough but investing/speculation is probably hard to calc back in medieval era for example. Maybe we'd find the 40's gold rush to be huge proportionally or something unexpected.
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Even Berkshire Hathaway has a 2.0x leverage bukk etf. But that one is alittle safter since it raraely drops 40-50% and is less volatile.

Meta went down 60% in 2022 an early 2023, so a 2.0 Meta bull would go down..... That is the danger of these and why they are short term trading vehicles.
10% drop need 11 gain to recoup
25 drop need 33
33 need 50
50 need 100
80 need 400
90 need 900%
Dems do tend to overregulate at times IMO but that does not cause crashes. Rs from Reagan through Bush and Trump IMO dramatically over deregulate which produces a sugar fix but then an inevitable crash when financial instituiions go craZy (see S&L crises, 2007=08 collapse financial system etc. I think bitcoin, derivative, AI influence in systems. bad loan s, and levrage will all factor in the next crash down the road.
 
Still going strong with 100% of my investment portfolio in equities. Figure I’ve got another decade or so before I start incorporating bonds. Might be an extremely risky tolerance given what might be coming down the pike economically over the next couple of years, but I figure I have such a long horizon of time until I need any of it that I can stomach volatility, so no intention of altering my allocation anytime soon. #JustKeepBuying
 
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